2 replies to this topic

[samsung]

Have we found a ST bottom?? With the move up last week and today, can the rally continue a few more days too reach the top of the trading range? I am not very good on wave counts,,,, it could be an ABC and the move continue,,,, OR are we nearing the top of wave 4 and ready for another leg down,,,,, OR does it actually count too be 5 waves down ????? How about you wave counters,,,,, where do we stand at present??????

[PorkLoin]

Hi Samsung, Per your chart, I think it's a stretch to call the decline five waves -- we'd have to be counting a very small fifth wave, or possible a tiny first wave. I think it looks better as 3 waves down, be it 123 or ABC. With the benefit of hindsight, May 12 (or the low in an index in question) looks like a short-term bottom. Your questions about fourth wave or not is the real deal, in my opinion. The action since looks corrective to me -- overlapping, choppy, etc. However, we're up pretty strongly today, and it's not impossible we made an intermediate term low earlier this month. Going above 574 or so -- the low about 2/3 of the way through April, would kill any 1234 counts -- we'd be overlapping the bottom of wave 1. I was expecting at least one more new low from April, whether we're bearish 123 down from the yearly highs, or bullish ABC, and if we don't get it then that is wrong. If the ABC is already done, then we may well still be in the rally from the lows of 2002/2003 -- quite bullish for now. The bearish case is still a correction from the May lows -- and by no means is it ruled out yet. Could be ABCX.... and now making another ABC. Best, Doug

[samsung]

Doug, Thanks for you analysis of the possible waves,,, I don't understand them and just trying too learn more about them !!!!!!!