No replies to this topic

[thoughtpwr]

Except for a week of going the wrong direction at the beginning of each trade, these seasonal signals in gold and silver have been useful. As of Monday's close, there is a SELL in Silver that has the nominal 75% probability of success and lasts from 5/24 to 7/3. This time frame is omminous in that many are calling for a very bad June, which this seasonal would support. Countering this fact is that there are several Buy signals on Bonds, which appear to be the real driver of things. One signal is Buy Bonds as of 5/20 going to 8/2. Another one starts on 5/30 and runs to 6/13. Based upon Glen Neely's call on Bonds, I had expected a little more downside before the rally takes hold like to TLT = 78. One cannot call what we have had for the last 8 trading days a rally, rather more like a correction. However, as long as the Bonds have been treading water the markets have been okay. Perhaps the best thing is to watch the Bonds for the best prognosticator for market direction (as Williams like to call them the fundamentals)? Many have gone long from around the recent bottom and the XAU is challenging the 90 level. I had been concerned how the gold stocks could really rally without the SPX/NDX. Well, it really hasn't. I would think that they both go down together or they both rally together, continuing the pattern run over the last year+. I noticed that Tim Ord has not brought up the 3 Gaps Play on the XAU recently, whcih he called about a month ago. This formation has correctly called 1) the move down in SPX/NDX to the recent lows, and 2) the rally up to where we are in tagging distance to the smaller 3 Gaps in stocks. I am personally letting the XAU = 103, 3 Gaps Play target guide the risk exposure I have in the gold stocks now. EJ