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Dr. Joe Duarte's Market I.Q.


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Posted 12 September 2011 - 03:11 PM

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[img]http://www.joe-duarte.com/images/line_main_top_01.gif[/img]September 9 , 2011, 08:00 EST[img]http://www.joe-duarte.com/images/line_main_top_05.gif[/img][img]http://www.joe-duarte.com/images/000.gif[/img]
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Chart Watch: Stocks, Oil, AndGold Are All Tracing Important Trading Patterns
[img]http://www.joe-duarte.com/images/000.gif[/img]
[img]http://www.joe-duarte.com/images/000.gif[/img][img]http://www.joe-duarte.com/images/pic_04.gif[/img]What'sHot Today:
 

U.S. stock index futures were lower on Friday morning.Uncertainty about Europe and what Congress will do next are stillworrying traders.

Today'sEconomic Calendar

News For Thought:

President's Hand Picked Solar Firm Raided. Accordingto The Wall Street Journal: 'Solyndra LLC, a California solar-panelmaker once hailed by President Barack Obama as "the future" of cleanenergy, is the target of a criminal investigation into whether itsexecutives knowingly misled the government to secure more than $500million in loan guarantees, said people familiar with the matter.Agents from the Federal Bureau of Investigation on Thursday raided thecompany's headquarters in Fremont, Calif., carting away documents andcomputer equipment as part of the previously undisclosed federalprobe.'

Senators meet to push debt deal forward. Accordingto The Washington Post: "More than two dozen senators from both partiesmet privately this week to revive hopes of a grand debt-cutting bargain— exploring how to push the newly formed debt “supercommittee” to findfar more than its assigned goal of $1.5 trillion in deficit reductions.The senators want at least $3 trillion slashed from the deficit overthe next decade. In addition, they plan to press the committee to passa major tax overhaul to lower rates and close special-interestloopholes, as well as changes to entitlement programs such as Medicare,according to several participants."
[img]http://www.joe-duarte.com/images/pic_04.gif[/img]Chart Watch: Stocks, Oil, And Gold Are All Tracing Important TradingPatterns
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Congress is back in town. The G-7 ismeeting. And the S & P 500 is struggling to rise above keyresistance. That's what we've got going into the weekend.


[img]http://www.joe-duarte.com/images/naad.png[/img]
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com


Gold ($GOLD), despite our willingness to try to short it lately, may betracing a bullish pattern. If you look at the chart carefully, it'sforming a rising wedge or pennant pattern.

That's usually a bullish chart formation. And if it plays out, we couldsee a major move above $1900 as the outcome. This bears watching.


[img]http://www.joe-duarte.com/images/wtic.png[/img]
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com


The negativity is palpable. Yet, the charts suggest that some importanttrading bottoms may have been put in place for stocks and oil. Gold,seems to be in a bullish consolidation pattern.

Conclusion

The markets are volatile. But the charts say that buyers are taking theopportunity to buy some stocks, and build positions in oil and gold.

Of the three areas, gold has the most bullish looking chart. A breakoutin gold above $1900 could be the prelude to a major leg up for themetal. When you understand the big picture, the next step is how tosurvive and profit from what lies ahead. That's why we recommend: VWoy0kPUxC0ADUNXRsZgmu2wsG98RHtJBDmwcYdc1vh1CtShfyOXq4FrybsymqD9HN2LsQh6Tn0N9mT3
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[img]http://www.joe-duarte.com/images/gld.png[/img]
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

It's hard to be bullish on gold when it's off $23 in early trading on9-9. Yet, the longer term charts suggest that the metal is in the midstof completing a bullish rising wedge or pennant formation.

The key is what gold does at $1900 where it has failed to break outnumerous times in the last few weeks. This could be an area wherecentral banks are selling, where hedge funds are taking profits, orboth.

What's evident, though, is that every time gold sells off, there arebuyers waiting somewhere above $1800. And that's why the lows arehigher, forming the rising wedge pattern.

$1800 is roughly the bottom of the wedge, with the 20-day movingaverage rising and providing support that adjusts on a trade by tradebasis. $1906 is the actual top of the pattern.

A move above $1900 could take prices significantly higher in a shortperiod of time. The down side is that a violent advance that takesprices up several hundered dollars in a few days to weeks could be thefinal blow off in the bull market for gold.

But that's not something that can be predicted with any certainty. Whatis more likely in the short term is a continuation of the wedgebuilding process until prices compress enough for a break out. Whathappens with that breakout is what really matters. Another failurecould also kill the long term trend.

Let's see what happens.