3 replies to this topic

[VolPivots]

Trying out a new software (thx CA). 5 cycle composite pointing down.....

NEM cycles

[stockbucks_coffee]

I don't see a cycle but it looks like a bradley cycle. another caution for me is the declining open interest for POG. The past year the low OI resulted in lows/bottoms as POG rose again along with rising OI. but unsure if this time the low OI is due to an IT downtrend selling of positions. SBC.

[VolPivots]

SBC

As for the software, cycleanalytics wrote up a nice review and summary at his blogspot. cyclytics web site. No astro involved....just curve fitting algorithms to generate cycles.

Re: the POG. I tend to think we'll retest the lows and probably put in new lows sometime during the coming months, but as long as the Fed has the pedal to the metal on the liquidity spigots (IMO the Fed is further trapping itself into a corner--tank the dollar? create greater inflationary concerns and tank the bond market? etc.), I won't be surprised if we see new highs. Plus geopolitical tensions could also be a potential catalyst going into the fall election.

As for NEM and other gold equity plays, I always keep in the back of my mind that higher gold prices don't necessarily imply higher stock prices (NEM for one is very well hedged last I heard). I think someone here posted a while back how gold continued on its upward ascent in '87 while the equities got hammered.

Rgds,
MN

[stockbucks_coffee]

in 87, i think gold stock rallied and then got caught in sympathy with the 'oct. crash' as the 'baby was thrown out with the bath water.' I think the xau/hui/pog is either at or near an IT bottom/low. my concern is that there's more downside to complete an IT bottom. SBC.