7 replies to this topic

[TomD]

I am a real hack...armed with a little knowledge on EWA labelling...does the above count hold any water?

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[elliotboy]

TomD

I am a long time practician of EWT based on Glenn Neelys work. My current EWT interpretation of the HUI index is quite different from your labelling.

According to my labelling HUI is currently tracing out a double zigzag formation with the C (in Y) still to come. Many of the SAs (e.g. Drooy) seems to trace out normal zigzag formations. Notice also the two possible H & S patterns in Drooy.

[SilentOne]

Hi Elliotboy and Tom, As I have posted here before, my bullish take counts the HUI rise as 1,2 then 3-1, 3-2 just complete at 163, and we are now entering the early stages of 3-3-1 or the 3-2 correction is complex and not yet complete. The alternative to this is that we are presently in an extended 5th wave off the HUI 2001 low. It is interesting to note that we have had flats as corrective wave patterns in the '01 and '02 declines. We also have 5th wave extensions in the first two major wave sets. Would the rule of alternation not be looking for a different wave form in these 2 moves if they were part of a 5 wave move up as Tom suggests? Then note that the last wave up as counted by Elliotboy has no wave extensions in it. Rather the waves are of similar length. So if the '03 wave up was the final leg of the PM bull for now, why didn't this finish in an extended 5th wave blowoff? Most PM tops form this way if you look back. It did not happen in Dec. and this is probably the main reason why I retain the more bullish HUI counts. The rise from the March '03 lows is just another 5 wave leg up and we have wave subdivisions to count in the HUI. PM wave counting is often difficult IMO because every move seems to end with a 5th wave extension. Thus you are never sure wave-wise whether you are in the final move for a wave set or not. Best to look at technicals to confirm wave counts then. I agree with your individual wave counts (ie. 1,2,3,4,5) elliotboy. However, your labelling suggests a corrective move off the lows (or is that just a Neely method for labelling). I haven't studied Neely before. Tom, if your count is correct, then the correction in the HUI is not over. You have the first major wave up complete and both price and time would have to correct much more. I don't discount this entirely, but I am skeptical that this is the case. Targets would be a minimum 61.8% correction to say HUI 120 where the 4th wave ended. In terms of time, if wave 1 up was about 36 months, then wave 2 could be expected to last at least a 13-14 months. The chart clues as to which is more likely has to come from the gold, $USD and Euro IMO. If the $USD bottoms significantly at these levels and gold breaks down again, I would vote for Tom's count. If however, gold climbs back over $400, the more bullish counts come into play IMO. It will be interesting these next few days. We are at a critical juncture for PMs again. Just my thoughts and I find most don't tend to agree with my thinking. cheers, john

[SilentOne]

BTW - I forgot to add. I think the Rand has topped and will weaken from here. It should help the S.A. miners enormously as they have been trashed the last 2 years. cheers, john

[TomD]

Well both of you have much greater practible knowledge in EWA...and I certainly have rarely traded ..actually never trade on the basis of a count of mine yet the whole concept of "waves" and impulsive vice corrective is something that I have taken to heart. From a traditional TA point of view I am focussing on the long term trend line and the 65 week moving average....a move below the latter to me has extrememly bearish implecations...a weekly close above would brighten the picutre Right now my "big picture" of gold is that it has finished a major first leg and that it is now in a correction that will encompass the entire move. The correction entails the unwinding of carry trades and speculative excess in the CRB I have also read (Reuter story) how Fed tightening may trigerr an outflow out of all the hot money in Asia and that would have a dampening affect on gold..even though again "big picture" Asia is the only true long term growth story left in town. How things move between then is still unclear to me...the euro lloks to try to move new highs...and uSD to retest bottoms...ergo gold could move up enough to stage a very tradable rally If the USD pout in a triple bottom and gold failed to make new highs...it could set things up for a very nasty fall...so personally I "hope" that the markets jest get on with their corrections will have to give both your posts a more detailed read I was wondering if any of knew what Glen Neely's current thoughts are?

[SilentOne]

Hi Tom, Well, in the ST, we just broke down in gold, euro and XAU. Either it is another test of the lows or new lows coming in PMs. cheers, john

[anjing bau]

183 is the 50% retrace of recent up move... 179 is the 62%.... watching to see if these hold....HUI

[TomD]

If you go by Rick Ackerman pivot analysis today was not a good day for gold's..according to him this bull cycle would be over with a fall under 183.21...if i remmber correctly

we will see what USD does tomorrow and see if there is any follow on