8 replies to this topic

[mss]

Here are 3 charts that try to give a realistic relationship between the two. Some say they move in different directions, some say the same, one leads the other, and on and on. Identical turn points are marked with a vertical dashed PINK line. $GOLD is dashed BLUE and $USD is solid BLUE. The first chart is longer term view and the next two are 3mo view. The two short term charts are identical except I reversed who was on top ,



Comments are welcome and need help here TomD. What are your thoughts as well as others. Mine are $ may bounce, but Gold is looking strong at the present. Best to all, mss

[TomD]

I haven't had a chance to look at charts in detail....it really can go etiher way...chart wise...I am bearish on gold...it really looks like this whole boucne is a correction designed to keep the gold bugs interested COT seems to favour gold....commericials have very small short position quite a negative spread in lease rates between one month and 12 month.....read somewhere where that can lead to a squeeze and is seen at IT bottoms? then there is FED wild card doesn't raise rates gold will take off raises rates .5...gold will murdered raises rates .25????........flip a coin... I have been of the mind that one should go the reverse of the direction going into the FEd sorry I have little to add except opinion...will look at charts again.

[The_Gold_Miner]

I'll have to agree with Tom on this one, but again we may all be looking at this from different time frames.

[TomD]

well I have given a more detailed look...

my take if the fed raises by .25 I think gold will keep going up to the 411 area...after which it will roll-over.

this assumes the president survives his trip to Iraq? (I would hate to be a secret service agent right now)

lotsa charts

[mss]

TomD, Great site and thanks for sharing. Best to you , mss

[SilentOne]

Hi All,

Nice post on currencies MSS. They are very much on my radar right now. Have a look at Mathias' count and tell me which way you think the Euro will head. I see it breaking its 3-year price channel in a continued 4th wave correction. Gold cannot do much to the upside if this happens IMO. That's why I am watching it closely. Note the Euro is 50% weighted on the USD index, so its direction is pivotal to the USD index.

Mathias' Euro Count

Note how the Euro has traded in a range above 1,1920 and below 1,221 resistance. I see a potential H&S from the top and a nice bear flag having formed as well with the recent multi-week consolidation. Godmode shows it quite clearly here. So which way then?



cheers,

john

[uncleharley]

I always felt that gold and the $$$ or any other currency, were two diferent asset class's and consequently their price actions were non-correlated. At least that explains why no one seems to know if one follows or lags the other.

[mss]

Hi All,
Have a look at Mathias' count and tell me which way you think the Euro will head.
john

Cannot comment about the count. From my limited charting prespective however, I think the Euro will rise, at least in the short term. Time will tell, but "DO or DIE" is close as others have pointed out. mss

[SilentOne]

Hi MSS,

Here is a longer view of the Euro count by Henri Straetman. A five wave set probably has topped as depicted and this 4th wave correction of a larger degree is not complete IMO.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$XEU,uu[r,a]waclyyay[d19990115,20041231][pb50!b200!d20,2!f][vc60][iua12,26,9!lb14!lh14,3!ll14][J9557613,Y].gif

If the Euro heads down and the USD rises, I can only surmise that interest rates/bond market is resposible for this kind of currency movement in the ST.

BTW - That would be a sell in the general market if this happens IMO. I think stock markets have been supported by the falling USD thus far.


cheers,

john