3 replies to this topic

[Porter]

It looks to me like there has been 5 waves up in the SPX. Wave I 1076.32 to 1102.77 Wave II 1102.77 to 1079.36 Wave III 1079.36 to 1142.18 Wave IV 1142.18 to 1124.37 Wave V 1124.37 to 1146.34 Wave III was the longest wave and subdivides into 5 waves up. Wave 1 1079.36 to 1105.93 Wave 2 1105.93 to 1085.43 Wave 3 1084.43 to 1128.10 Wave 4 1128.10 to 1116.56 Wave 5 1116.56 to 1142.18 Wave 1 was about 26 points. Wave 5 was about 26 points. Wave I was about 26 points. Wave V was about 22 points. Porter

[PorkLoin]

Hey Porter, Nice post. Agreed that the move up from the May low looks impulsive; looks like 5 waves. For me the question is whether we made an ABC correction down from the year's high to the May low, and are now in longer-term rally mode, OR, if we made a wave 1 move down into the March low, and now have done an ABC into the recent high. The character of the current decline -- the move down from the 1146 area -- will clue us in (I hope). I will say that after some really bullish-looking changes in indicators in May and June, there hasn't been that much follow-through to the upside. Maybe we really are just correcting a five-wave move up, and it's still a bullish picture from May, and that follow-through will charge ahead. Doug

[Porter]

A third alternative is that the move down during March was Wave A, and the current move down is Wave C. The bearish count you mentioned does not fit in with the Seis Amigos post and IYB's 4 friends indicators. Until proven otherwise the spring of the March bottom in the spoos should be regarded as bulllish. And strong breadth reinforces the price structure. Porter

[PorkLoin]

A third alternative is that the move down during March was Wave A, and the current move down is Wave C.

The bearish count you mentioned does not fit in with the Seis Amigos post and IYB's 4 friends indicators.
Until proven otherwise the spring of the March bottom in the spoos should be regarded as bulllish.
And strong breadth reinforces the price structure.

Porter -- yes indeed -- we could be in a "C" right now, one which would frustrate a lot of bulls and, once it ended, a lot of bears expecting the return of the Grand Bear Market. The character of the decline from the recent high, and of any subsequent rally, should help us out in deciphering it, if so.

I agree that on balance, it is more a bullish picture than a bearish one, from the May lows. We "should" be having a corrective decline here....

Best,

Doug