18 replies to this topic

[tradermama]

I just wanted to mention something is definitely brewing here. Here are updates for gold/silver/gdx Gold got a triple top spread buy yesterday computer generated target is 1530 but what is important to watch is 1440. If gold's pnf signal reverses to O then that trend target comes down to 1430. 1440 would be a positive trend change however it is on the default box setup. If one used larger boxes the positive trend comes in much higher at 1568 for the largest box but this is a good start and could be the mother of all short covering. Back in late Dec I posted a negative trend for gold and early that month negative for gdx. The trend change is what one would watch over anything else here and does not flip back quickly. An example is Apple. Back in Nov 2012 it got a negative trend change. Well, Tuesday that changed to positive. So that took 10 months to reverse back to a positive trend. Watch apple and you will see where it ends up going ...yes pullbacks will happen but that trend now is up. Gold's RS (relative strength) has been on a buy and X So yesterday now I got the gdx RS change to X...there has been signs of the miners strength developing as I posted before and now the index has finally gotten RS to X. A positive trend change for gdx is at 36.50 but that would drop if the pnf signal reverses back to O which right now it's in the X with a buy signal targeting 38.50. It's RS is still on a sell too if and when that changes I"ll post it. Silver I posted in the gold pnf thread that the RS changed on 8/10 to a buy...which is typically a multi month rally. 31.50 for now is the positive trend change for silver but that would come down further if the buy signal which it has been on reverses to an O. Gold, silver, and miners are still in a low risk/reward on pnf bell curve...16-20% on a 100% bell curve. It did move up from the 0-14% about a month ago. The point here is to watch 1440 for a positive trend change. I don't like saying something is 100% reliable but this is as close as you can get. A trend change to negative came with zsl..so I would be careful trying to use that etf too. I am only interpreting the read here for pnf but if we get that positive trend change..the bottom would be in this year for gold and could be THE bottom fwiw. There's a reversal date coming Aug 26 plus/minus 3 days and a full moon Tues. I posted in the gold pnf thread a couple of weeks ago that Randgold got a positive trend change. The next day or so it dropped and kept dropping till the pnf signal went to a sell but if you go back you will see how it came back up and stronger..again it had a positive trend change. If gold gets a positive trend change there will be plenty of time to get into it and hold for a long position. We are entering next month a bullish period also for metals. The trend changes have guided me well . If and when the trend changes either on gold/silver/gdx I'll post it. Good luck to all TM P.S...forget the pnf signals that I have posted which can flip back and forth but if one gets in on a new trend change it's highly rewardable.

[tradermama]

I just checked Dorsey's trend changes just now and noticed the gdxj got a positive trend change Also Royal Gold got a positive trend change from yesterday. Dorsey has an index called a xauusd...it's a gold cross $ index..it too got a positive trend change TM

Edited by tradermama, 16 August 2013 - 07:18 AM.

[tradermama]

I just checked Dorsey's trend changes just now and noticed the gdxj got a positive trend change
Also Royal Gold got a positive trend change from yesterday.
Dorsey has an index called a xauusd...it's a gold cross $ index..it too got a positive trend change
TM

I thought I'd throw in for gdxj where a negative trend would change. it back to..at 36..and all these numbers change as we go up and down too..fwiw
My observation on GOLD (Randgold) when it got this positive trend change and quickly reversed down it stopped short at where the negative trend change would be..which at the time was 66..now it's 67..so basically when you have a volatile stock like GOLD and a narrow range for a positive and negative trend change...it is possible for the trend change to flip back sooner than the norm...but highly unlikely...and please don't take my posts as being bullish/bearish..I'm just watching the triggers and at this time things are looking very promising going forward
TM

[tradermama]

Next week with the full moon and reversal date I expect a pullback in metals/miners. That said one new positive trend change I got is FSM along with it getting a RS to Buy. TM

[Russ]

Hi TM, Are you charting all these numbers? I find it hard to wrap my brain around just the numbers, I like to see things graphically. Thanks for posting it all though.

[tradermama]

Hi TM, Are you charting all these numbers? I find it hard to wrap my brain around just the numbers, I like to see things graphically. Thanks for posting it all though.

Hi Russ,
I don't know what you mean about charting numbers? If you mean using regular TA, yes I do. But again this has to do with trend changes based on point and figure..supply and demand. Go back to one I posted which was Randgold. I explained how that happened that day and see where it is today. Whenever you get the trend changes, it's as reliable as you can get imo. Just follow these trend changes or RS to buy posts and you will see how they have been proven to be correct. And I did explain trend changes don't flip fast but that's not to say it can't happen in a volatile market if the bullish and bearish support lines are in a narrow range but so far I haven't seen it. I thought that might have been the case with Randgold as it fell right away but it stopped short of breaking it.

I have posted in the past about the trend changes and how reliable they are including when gdx/gold reversed to a negative trend in Dec. That's all I can say about it. You don't have to wrap your brain around anything just follow where the trend is and so far it's up. If you want to learn more about pnf, Dorsey has many books out there. This is not a trading tool. So just watch to see where this stock from the time I posted it. How high I have no idea. PNF has a generated target of 8.25 but that doesn't mean it gets there and that's where TA comes in. But knowing the trend gives you a comfortable swing position if you can buy on a pullback. I will be getting some FSM next week.

Regards,


TM
P.s let me add $2.75 is a negative trend change for fsm..and that gets raised as a stock reverses back and forth to X and O

Edited by tradermama, 17 August 2013 - 07:31 AM.

[tradermama]

Anyone who wants to learn about pnf can get a free 3 week trial from dorseywright.com In there will explain about relative strength and trends along with patterns and signals. Plus there are daily updates and a forum. I've been with them since 2000 TM

[Russ]

Which stock is giving a pnf target of $8.25?

These simple moving averages gave a sell last Nov. too....

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GDX:$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p37599466679&r=1376769584488.png

Here's a chart I created today, I have projections on my oscillator for gold stocks to peak next Dec or possible into 1st Q. 2014 but more work will have to be done to clarify that, we are looking at a big rally between Sept and the end of the year for sure, how much of a correction we will see in the coming days I am not sure, I have indicated on the chart a pullback to towards the end of August based partly on so other projections from a few sources that can be seen on Dharma's post about weakness during this time period.

Edited by Russ, 17 August 2013 - 03:10 PM.

[tradermama]

Which stock is giving a pnf target of $8.25?

These simple moving averages gave a sell last Nov. too....

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GDX:$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p37599466679&r=1376769584488.png

Here's a chart I created today, I have projections on my oscillator for gold stocks to peak next Dec or possible into 1st Q. 2014 but more work will have to be done to clarify that, we are looking at a big rally between Sept and the end of the year for sure, how much of a correction we will see in the coming days I am not sure, I have indicated on the chart a pullback to towards the end of August based partly on so other projections from a few sources that can be seen on Dharma's post about weakness during this time period.

FSM but that doesn't mean it gets there. I was referring to FSM getting a new positive trend change Friday along with an RS buy ..

whether gold peaks in Dec I can't predict ..I just follow important signals along with regular TA. If gold gets a 1440 it's a positive trend and it will last for a while..I can't tell you if it reverses by Dec but anything is possible and I will be watching how it develops if it gets close to a reversal in trend..

As you know it's very volatile but I haven't seen a trend change reverse in a few months after just turning positive
Lets just see how this plays out and go from there

TM

[tradermama]

Which stock is giving a pnf target of $8.25?

These simple moving averages gave a sell last Nov. too....

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=GDX:$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p37599466679&r=1376769584488.png

Here's a chart I created today, I have projections on my oscillator for gold stocks to peak next Dec or possible into 1st Q. 2014 but more work will have to be done to clarify that, we are looking at a big rally between Sept and the end of the year for sure, how much of a correction we will see in the coming days I am not sure, I have indicated on the chart a pullback to towards the end of August based partly on so other projections from a few sources that can be seen on Dharma's post about weakness during this time period.

FSM but that doesn't mean it gets there. I was referring to FSM getting a new positive trend change Friday along with an RS buy ..

whether gold peaks in Dec I can't predict ..I just follow important signals along with regular TA. If gold gets a 1440 it's a positive trend and it will last for a while..I can't tell you if it reverses by Dec but anything is possible and I will be watching how it develops if it gets close to a reversal in trend..

As you know it's very volatile but I haven't seen a trend change reverse in a few months after just turning positive
Lets just see how this plays out and go from there

TM

Today AG got a pnf positive trend change

TM