59 replies to this topic

[dharma]

gold has rallied 150-200 over each of the last 2 summers . we are oversold on the oscillators , they need to turn up and we will have stochs cross
gdx has created a double inverse h&s pattern
gdxj is in a bull wedge.
year over year the miners are essentially flat
we are close here, the upside just has to get started
everyone is waiting for inflation , there is no money velocity. so its not happening now
http://www.graceland...un3seattle1.png if seattle is a frontrunner than this could be a start
draghi, has threatened numerous times to do something, to do anything, so far nothing has come out of the eu. how long can the markets be jawboned.
the weight of the debt continues and the debt continues to grow the weight of which is affecting and distorting everything
until india comes back into the market and starts buying, the demand side of the equation will be light
dharma

Edited by dharma, 03 June 2014 - 11:47 AM.

[dharma]

sentiment HGNSI fell 13.3 points on Friday to -23.3% MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus was unchanged at 42% DSI slipped a point to 9%. The last time the DSI was at single digits was a reading of 5% on December 15, 2013... dharma

[gannman]

we need a couple of big days in a row to the upside then we will be off. until then more of the same imho

[swanstkdh]

we need a couple of big days in a row to the upside then we will be off. until then more of the same imho

I remember those summer rallies. They are pretty impressive sometimes. Thanks to the members that hung in with this sector and keep posting. Swan............

[senorBS]

Dharma, interesting economic news this morning and signs of something we have talked about developing for a year or more- slowest productivity growth in 6 years/ADP numbers amongst weakest in past 12 months/wage inflation increasing. Hmmm, "stagflation" anyone? Senor

[tria]

Gold is not going anywhere far away till mid July. Any medium-term excursions should be south of the $1260 border IMHO. If my view changes, I will post asap. DYODD etc. -tria

[pisces]

Gold is not going anywhere far away till mid July.
Any medium-term excursions should be south of the $1260 border IMHO.
If my view changes, I will post asap.

DYODD etc.
-tria

THANKS , TRIA ,appreciate your input

[dharma]

Dharma, interesting economic news this morning and signs of something we have talked about developing for a year or more- slowest productivity growth in 6 years/ADP numbers amongst weakest in past 12 months/wage inflation increasing. Hmmm, "stagflation" anyone?

Senor

yes, i am still in the stagflation camp. i posted that article about wages in seattle, as the tip of the iceberg.
tria, i agree, i dont see much happening right now, there are possibilities. but nothing more.
in india the jewellers association, which has been decimated by the 10% tax then the 80/20 rule, are boisterous about changes taking place. changes will come , but i dont think they come overnight, the guy just took office.
draghi speaks tomorrow, that is all he does, is speak and threaten , but nothing has come out of the ecb, lets see if they institute qe
the backdrop for gold continues to improve, however, w/india out of the market , the supply demand situation remains iffy for the bulls
i read this this am http://www.gata.org/node/14061 well we all knew the market was manipulated and probably always has been . just asked bunker
gdx on a weekly chart has a very large falling wedge.
larry parks interviews jim rickards, 30minutes http://blip.tv/the-l...f-money-6906560
it will take time to build the confidence back in the sector. those looking for a parabolic , after the market bottoms , will not get what they want.
keep in mind we are in the time frame for seasonal lows. then sometime in july starts diwali buying
dharma
as i stated awhile back, i am not looking for hyperinflation. stagflation is more like it. when the velocity of money starts turning up, then i think that backdrop will be more favorable for gold . right now that is in deflation/disinflation mode
dharma

[dharma]

way back when the silk trade was alive. india and china were @the fore.
today , china and soon to be india will be the engines that power the world economy. the chinese leader met w/modi and offered a substantial amount of money to help build indian infrastructure. the central banker of india is buying dollars. he said to hold the rupee down. a year ago , these levels were a concern for the rupee and so they slapped a 10% tax on gold and instituted an 80/20 rule to squash the gold trade, and to help improve their import deficits. .that 80/20 rule is a noose around the gold trades neck. the indian budget will be submitted the 1st week of july, and then by then we see what happens to the 10% tax and the 80/20 rule. the engine for the next boom cycle is the far east, india is quite poor. they have to build everything . it is also the key to golds future. over here, we watch chart patterns. there they care less about that stuff, gold has always been wealth/money. its a whole different thought process. they buy and hold. they know sooner or later govt slips on a banana peel.
dharma
http://www.moneycont...bc_1098852.html
watch the banksters sell the rupee. to try and keep india out of the gold market

Edited by dharma, 05 June 2014 - 11:03 AM.

[dharma]

the adp was 179k they were looking for 210k look for the jobs # to disappoint tomorrow dharma notice the ecb went to negative rates and a charge to banks this is part of the summers plan. next is having cash disappear

Edited by dharma, 05 June 2014 - 01:27 PM.