19 replies to this topic

[fauxpas13]

Long ecz @ 1.1150

[fauxpas13]

dow...rising wedge b/d rolled over into head and shoulders pattern (easier seen on intraday charts), as is fairly typical with this pattern ...late day bounce was snapback to the h&s ...also got a secondary sell / add to short signal on today's decline but couldn't timely post bullion... looks like an a-b-c now completed or close to complete (with pullback to the 1120 s/r level and 50% retrace which comes in ~1119.4) Since this agrees with tria and dharma in post above, I'm in fine company. 1114, 1111 and 1108 would be the s/r levels further down. With a relatively large number of 1100 puts traded on today's decline, highly doubtful price gets there... I will probably wait for a move back >1132 prior to adding bonds - next buy / add signal looks to come in > 156-10.. personally, I would like to see another long set up after the gap just above there gets filled, prior to adding

[fauxpas13]

Dollar - if dollar index (dxz15) gets a decisive move below the 96.38 s/r it's been clinging too, particularly with consolidation of a move below 96.06 s/r, it will probably be on its way for a swing back down to lower end of multi-month consolidation...around 92...maybe a little deeper (count wise I'm viewing the larger pattern as a bullish consolidation/flag sideways 4 in which a 3-leg wave A has completed, a 3-leg wave B and the first 2 legs of wave C). I mention as it appears the mouthpieces may now be setting the table for this...help the emerging markets out with their woes by weakening the dollar, sure...between Kuroda indicating Japan fine with stronger yen, (stating a USD/JPY rate of 115-120 more likely than 125) followed today by Draghi's supportive comments for the euro, (indicating no fragility in Europe to warrant further QE measures there) all ahead of Yellen who is speaking tomorrow. So will be interesting to see if she follows on and says anything construable as a negative nudge towards the dollar. I've just entered a long yen position now at .8352 jyz15

[fauxpas13]

Added to ecz15 long @ 1.1239

[fauxpas13]

That was a particularly ill timed long to add in euro. So far euro and yen testing lower end of respective ranges on the news jerk reactions. Bigger pic on dollar still looks like it needs / will end up with another swing down in current pattern before ready to attempt take out to upside. The intra gap fill and backtesting of top of basing zone looks constructive for bond. Will now take the additional buy once recovers >156-10.

[fauxpas13]

[fauxpas13]

[fauxpas13]

Added ymz short and jyz long.

[fauxpas13]

fwiw, exited euro longs earlier today...disappointing when it couldn't hold move over 1.13 again...may look to reenter if tests lower supports

[fauxpas13]

I do not know if I'll be making any future posts so will leave some charts of what I'm looking at price wise in markets I've posted on:

Yen: Big sideways yawn. I am currently long as, imo, the short side is overcrowded ... from Japanese stock investments that have hedged out currency risk, to yen carry trades, to straight up bets on the unfailing ability of Japanese govt to trash its own currency... so one must wonder who's left to sell that hasn't?






Euro and gold: Both are testing some not insignificant resistance areas. I remain long gold but did reduce my position until see how it handles overhead resistance. Euro, new long entries were exited and took partial short position with assumption market will show a modicum of respect rather than barreling through. Will see.









Dow: I think we've started a correction off 18k high that'll probably see a 38-50% retracement of the almost 12k move from 2009 before it's done. That puts a downside target in play of mid 14 thousands down into twelves. I am thus scaling into shorts at present with that view.






Bonds: I have a longer term upside target in mid to upper 170's. From that I'm assuming some recent credit distress will eventually turn into dislocations and weak economic stats are foretelling a recession to come, if not here. Friday's price action of tail into and reversal off support looked positive.