6 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

of a wave Quatro contracting triangle from the Feb low? if it stays below 90.29 that may be the correct count and implies an el thrusto south of the border to the low 80's- and gold to new highs and 450-480 level? BSing away. Senor

[Modest Trader]

Senor, Any time frame for the target low in the dollar? TIA. MT

[senorBS]

Before we go to "time" lets see if it is even the right count. If it is Wave E it should be finishing now, if not then there is nothing to worry about. More BS. Senor

[bobalou]

MT post a chart LT on dollar.put in down channel lines 4/5 of them.I'm thinking the dollar,should brake down this mo. but rates are back in the down chennal.SO what happen's this mo. will set up the rest of yr.what the fed does or doesn't do is a key.that is one of the reasions I'm flat and happy.

[Modest Trader]

Bob, It would seem that the drop in LT rates due to the slowing economy should be bearish for the dollar, but with the Fed raising rates into the teeth of a clear slowdown, the Fed seems to be supporting the dollar ST, where without that Fed rate raising action, the dollar would have already started its fall. Isn't there usually some sort of Int'l. currency crisis in Sept.-Oct.? I rememeber the Soros assault on the pound occurring in Sept. and of course the dollar tanking before the 1987 crash comes to mind. MT

[greenie]

add to that Asian crisis (Thai baht and all) - Sept-Oct. 97.


Russian default was in August though.

Bob,

It would seem that the drop in LT rates due to the slowing economy should be bearish for the dollar, but with the Fed raising rates into the teeth of a clear slowdown, the Fed seems to be supporting the dollar ST, where without that Fed rate raising action, the dollar would have already started its fall. Isn't there usually some sort of Int'l. currency crisis in Sept.-Oct.? I rememeber the Soros assault on the pound occurring in Sept. and of course the dollar tanking before the 1987 crash comes to mind.

MT

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[bobalou]

lower LT rates are showing fear,big houses , do not know what to do,eather,as us.+ alot of $$ around ,so, bonds =safty,the market could go,up/down.no clear direction. plus big houses are selling some corp.bonds now.They want bonds looking good.;, as they sell gov's bonds ,before gov sale of gov bonds to get a better price,a game.yes,yes,yes a chang is comming,we will just have wait,2/3 wks.then ride it.THAT"S MY BS