3 replies to this topic

[sagitarius_d]

YAHOO

I have found that the market usually moves inversely to the tone of the article.. So lets say this week we are going to short oil ( we- me and myself)

Associated Press
OPEC Warns That Oil Prices Will Stay High
Sunday January 30, 9:05 am ET
By Matt Moore, AP Business Writer
OPEC Warns That Oil Prices Will Remain High Through the Spring, Despite Unchanged Production Quota


VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- OPEC warned Sunday that oil prices, already hovering near $50 a barrel, would remain high through the spring, even as the cartel decided to keep its production ceiling at 27 million barrels a day.
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The decision, reached at a meeting of the 11-nation group in the Austrian capital, offers little solace for consumers worried about the price of heating oil this winter.

Kuwait's oil minister Sheik Ahmad Fahd al-Ahmad al-Sabah, who leads the group, said he was given permission to conduct a meeting via telephone before the next meeting in March to address the production issue if market conditions warrant.

Al-Sabah said the group's decision was aimed at bringing more stability to the market, and called on consumers and producers to "walk together ... for prices to be acceptable."

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also decided to temporarily suspend its price band of $22 to $28 a barrel, which was set in March 2000 and has largely been ignored since 2004.

Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zangeneh said the price needs to be changed, but added that OPEC didn't have a specific target for its reference basket of seven crudes. On Friday, the basket price stood at $41.88.

Indonesian Oil Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro said the rate, adjusted for inflation and the declining dollar, would be around $32 to $35 a barrel.

Most OPEC oil ministers have said there's no need to modify output, despite the high prices -- a feeling that could cause more consumer concern.

OPEC, which accounts for one-third of the world's oil supply, is seeking to keep its buyers -- and their consumers -- from becoming jittery that prices could resume their climb. Prices hit a record $55.17 per barrel in late October.

Qatari oil minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said OPEC would probably have a surplus of 1.5 million barrels a day during the second quarter.

On Friday, light, sweet crude for March delivery dropped $1.66 to $47.18 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent for March delivery fell $1.49 to $44.95 on the International Petroleum Exchange.

Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez wasn't among the ministers, citing talks his country held with China over the weekend in Caracas that resulted in several trade agreements.

Associated Press Writer Andrea Dudikova contributed to this report.

http://www.opec.org

[SilentOne]

Any follow through to the downside next week and this becomes a sell.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$wtic,uu[m,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9]&r=9984.gif

I don't really know why, but it looks like oil topped last week. This wave up seems to be a corrective one and that suggests oil consolidates (below the $55 high) for some time here.

cheers,

john

[tsharp]

Any follow through to the downside next week and this becomes a sell.

[edited out chart to save bandwidth]

I don't really know why, but it looks like oil topped last week. This wave up seems to be a corrective one and that suggests oil consolidates (below the $55 high) for some time here.

cheers,

john

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

hi john,

my work also seems to be pointing towards the same possibility... that a b-wave of a wave-iv may be complete, or nearly so.

back in early december, i suggested that a ST low had been seen, http://traders-talk....showtopic=27009 , and that we'd push back upward, suggesting in later post that the ~$50 range, which was also a secondary high, seemed to be a realistic ST target, it's about reached that target, so perhaps back down to the mid-$30 range, which could also allow the financials the breathing room they need to complete one more leg up to finish out wave-( c ):X ... twt.

--tsharp

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[SilentOne]

Hi T! I like your charts and visit your posts often. The only thing is I have trouble seeing them clearly sometimes as they are very dark. That is a very bullish count for oil you have there. I agree we are putting in a corrective wave here from $55 and a possible "C" wave looms". Much higher targets lie ahead. As always, it is the timing in question. cheers, john