On Time Update
25 February 2005 Pre-Open
EXIT TIME
An overnight dip in the euro hit our stop level on 1.3150 on the March future. We are out of the position for a 1.73% portfolio gain*.
Risk is rising for the oil long position. It appears that oil still has a shot at the 53.5 area, but considering the gains in hand, it is prudent for us to exit at this morning’s opening price.
The 135-minute model for stocks has turned up, though the daily trend is down. My position is decidedly neutral here. The put/call directional index has a divergence that will be confirmed if that index turns up today. The improving stock market picture contributes to the perceived increase in risk for the oil position.
Bonds have stabilized, though they appear to be simply biding time before moving lower still. The 113 4/32 area is the line below which this decline will turn very ugly very quickly.
*Closed trades in our hypothetical portfolio are tracked at http://www.calendarr...lportfolio.html
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