Trying to revive this moribund gold board....
SKI Update
3/21/05
The gold stocks got hammered down 2.5% today (Monday) on the day that I
was expecting them to rise 3%. What bothered me most about today was
not the price decline, but the fact that I would have to write and face
the readers who have now lost almost all of their profits. Today’s drop
hit/broke the master 92-96 index whose back prices rose today to USERX
8.43. The drop landed DIRECTLY on top of the 16-20 index whose back
prices rose today to 8.25 (with USERX closely at 8.26!). A continuing
decline or even a failure to rise this week will cause the mechanical
SKI system to sell via a 92-96 index sell. We would see if the 16-20
index buy signal ties the 92-96 sell signal or comes a day after it. A
day after would generate a double sell (the 16-20 buy signal being XXed
Out).
I wanted to sell today and in my 20 years of trading, I have almost
always sold on days like today to avoid any loss. But I didn’t sell and
I didn’t send out an email sell alert. I will sell this week if it
appears to be extremely likely that the 92-96 index will sell by next
Monday (i.e., if prices aren’t going back above USERX 8.46 to avoid the
92-96 index sell signal). I want to sell ahead of the 92-96 index sell
signal because prices invariably decline into such a sell signal. I
didn’t sell today because I simply cannot sell on a day when gold is
down $9. Odds are that gold will go up tomorrow, but how will the gold
stocks react tomorrow? We’ll see, but be prepared to close the long
position this week if the gold stocks perform weakly.
The gold stocks were supposed to continue to rise here and this trade
is not supposed to yield a loss. There is still a chance that prices
will simply rise and I am waiting to see if that happens over the rest
of this week. It’s been a year since the triple sell signal and I
thought that the triple sell would be toast when we rose right here.
Due to today’s drop, I still cannot be sure that the triple sell has
been overcome.
I had thought that this would be time to relax and just enjoy a ski
ride up, but such relaxation is now inappropriate. Be vigilant and be
prepared to sell. My colleague may not sell if prices keep declining
(he’ll want to wait for a bounce), but there will not be another stop
after the 92-96 index sell signal. Safety requires selling on the 92-96
index sell signal, should it occur. And I will not have any predictions
if the system sells out via a 92-96 index sell signal. I’m glad that I
ordered those vomit bags for the rocket ship last Friday. I feel like a
lamb being set up for slaughter. Be disciplined to avoid any large
loss. I am certainly not singing tonight, but I do know that I have, to
date, bought and held on in a correct and disciplined manner. The
goldies declined below critical points today, but I don’t have a sell
signal yet, so I am tenuously holding on. I am not denigrating myself
because I have done everything according to the indices. That’s all
that I can do. Best wishes from dismayed Jeff. ( I am still
fantasizing that the gold stocks will rise right now and that we’ll be
able to look back on this day as a bottom and most importantly, as the
double buy signal having been correct).
SKI's warbler falls silent
Started by
cedartree
, Mar 21 2005 10:43 PM
2 replies to this topic
#1
Posted 21 March 2005 - 10:43 PM
#2
Posted 22 March 2005 - 05:45 AM
cedartree,
Thank you for posting SKI's latest. I've been feeling so guilty because I felt I killed the gold board with my last SKI post, lol.
I'm still holding on to a few starter positions in ABX, RGLD & TD (I'm trying one Canadian bank to see how it does in relation to the gold stocks); I'm hoping they don't become ending positions this week. Tuesday should be telling.
If the gold world doesn't come to an end I've got my eye on the chart below; if it breaks out to the upside of the consolidating triangle it's formed in the past few weeks, I'm a buyer; it even pays a good size dividend.
Best,
Tom
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=edv.to,uu[l,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9]&r=9166.png
Thank you for posting SKI's latest. I've been feeling so guilty because I felt I killed the gold board with my last SKI post, lol.
I'm still holding on to a few starter positions in ABX, RGLD & TD (I'm trying one Canadian bank to see how it does in relation to the gold stocks); I'm hoping they don't become ending positions this week. Tuesday should be telling.
If the gold world doesn't come to an end I've got my eye on the chart below; if it breaks out to the upside of the consolidating triangle it's formed in the past few weeks, I'm a buyer; it even pays a good size dividend.
Best,
Tom
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=edv.to,uu[l,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9]&r=9166.png
#3
Posted 22 March 2005 - 09:18 AM
Where is Senor. What cha think?