The next few days look to be a shakeout in many markets. The dollar is in an up seasonal from 3/11 to 3/29. Bonds are in a down seasonal from 3/18 to 3/28. This will likely be bad for gold. CPI will be a possible catalyst. Also copper is looking very toppy here and we have a down seasonal coming up on 3/28 thru 4/6. Many opportunities for nimble traders. -Brian
What next?
Started by
cedartree
, Mar 23 2005 12:10 AM
3 replies to this topic
#1
Posted 23 March 2005 - 12:10 AM
#2
Posted 23 March 2005 - 06:00 PM
Hi Brian,
The week that was. Weekly MACD kiss and downturn was not a good thing for bulls. It is very hard to be long the sector when the weekly is pointing down. Trust me on this one.
http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif
Silver will need to find legs real soon, basically a disconnect from the dollar. The dollar looks like it has legs from here.
Glad to see someone posting on the gold board.
cheers,
john
The week that was. Weekly MACD kiss and downturn was not a good thing for bulls. It is very hard to be long the sector when the weekly is pointing down. Trust me on this one.
http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif
Silver will need to find legs real soon, basically a disconnect from the dollar. The dollar looks like it has legs from here.
Glad to see someone posting on the gold board.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#3
Posted 23 March 2005 - 09:19 PM
Silent,
In late Feb. you called a downturn into March.
Does that MACD whip change your e-wave thoughts?
Paul
#4
Posted 28 March 2005 - 05:09 AM
Hi Paul,
I haven't been trolling the boards much the last week. The problem for PMs ahead lies in the USD and bonds (ie positive real rates), as both will provide headwind for gold/silver. We probably find a ST bottom in the next day or two, and then we see where we go from there. But in a nutshell, a break of HUI 190 leads to 170 - 180, and a further break there opens up too many possibilities. But I don't think the PM bull is over by any stretch. It will just need some time. I think the HUI triangle is still in play as I have posted in the last few months.
I still hold my bullion, some CEF , some offshore PM funds and some juniors. No big swing positions until things clear up.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain