S&P 500 CASH
SPX CASH:
JUNE SP: Daily Projected Support and Resistancelevels: High - 1150; Low - 1140
SPX CASH: 5-Day Projected Support andResistance levels: High - 1163; Low - 1120
JUNE SP: 5-Day Projected Support and Resistancelevels: High - 1165; Low - 1122
SPX CASH: Monthly Projected Support and Resistancelevels: High - 1204; Low - 1138
SPX CASH: Yearly Projected Support and Resistancelevels: High - 1292; Low - 1135
Current SPX Index Positions:
Mid-term (6-8 weeks) = NEUTRAL from 1157.00(intraday Friday)
Short-term (1 day-3 weeks) = 125% BULLISHfrom 1145.98 (today’s close)
From previous outlook: "For thebigger picture, it looks as if the 1120-1127 region is now acting as the downside magnetto price, which has now moved up to the new make or break region on this index and lookslike it will be tested before this larger series of down cycles can bottom out.Shorter-term however, the smallest cycle from our table - the 10 day component - is now atan oversold level where only 15% of the down phases for this cycle have gone in recentyears. In other words, we are due for a sharp countertrend rally with this cycle - but thevolume notes from earlier indicate that this bounce is going to come from lower lows fornow."
Current analysis: The SPX made lowerlows in today’s session, testing the monthly and yearly projected support low rangeof 1135-1138 SPX CASH with the tag of 1139.80 at the intraday price low. From there pricesmanaged to end the day on an upward note - though only mildly. Volume here came in at less than 1.8 billion shares, which is a 24% contraction from Friday’s numbersand can be seen as a short-term bullish indication with move to new swing lows being seen.
From Thursday: "the Summationindex is still registering lower lows here; this indicator will normally witness adivergence as the larger cycles are bottoming or topping out. There is no such divergencehere right now. However, there is a strong divergence forming with the smaller McClellanoscillator (in gray), and divergences with this oscillator are usually seen at smallerdegree cycle bottoms (i.e., 45 days or less). This, in addition to the fact that the 10day cycle is extended on the downside, should indicate a sharp bounce is just around thecorner - though again the volume says that bounce is going to come from lower levels, suchas the 1135-1138 monthly and yearly projected support low range or the 1120-1127‘make or break’ region."
Current analysis: As per above, theinformation from the McClellan Summation index tells us that the probabilities favor thata larger low is still out there, though today’s action with volume is constructivefor this larger 180 day cycle. Also noted was the strong divergence from the McClellanoscillator, which is usually more telling for cycles of smaller degree. In other words,with the position of the smaller 10 and 20 day cycles, this divergence to me says that asharp countertrend bounce is not too far away - but that bounce is likely to be followedby new swing lows again until the time where the larger Summation index can registera divergent low. Otherwise, since there is never any guarantee that the McClellanSummation index will register a divergent low (20-30% of the time it will not doso), any daily close above VTL-3 from our daily chart would be our indication that thelarger 180 day down cycle is completed and a rally in the 9-10% range or better is inprogress with a run to or above the 1229.11 swing top being favored. Anything below thisline now still invites a test of the 1120- 1127 ‘make or break’ region on thedownside before this larger series of down cycles bottoms out.
From last night: "the above information suggests and early week low that forms into the 1120-1135 region, andthen - if that region is tested on contracting volume and breadth - the odds will thenshift in favor of a try at upper resistance (1153-1163) at some point later in the week.That bounce, if also seen on low volume, would then be expected to give ways to new lowsonce again as the larger down cycles try and form a low in the coming weeks."
Current analysis: Today’s declineactually held slightly above the 1120-1135 support region, which means a run into thisarea in the next day or three cannot still be seen or ruled out. However, for now favoringa bounce back to the 1153-1163 resistance region for the short-term - with at least somepossibility that any countertrend rally could take us back up to the 9 and 18 day movingaverages on the daily chart, which right now are at the low 1170’s -but should addare dropping firmly each session and will be at much lower numbers by the time we get intomid to late week here. We’ll see how Tuesday’s session plays out and takeanother look at it tomorrow night.
NASDAQ 100 CASH
Daily Projected Support and Resistancelevels: High, 1421 - Low, 1408
5-Day Projected Support and Resistance levels: High, 1455 - Low, 1370
Monthly Projected Support and Resistance levels: High, 1467 - Low, 1373
Current NDX Index Positions:
Mid-Term (6-8 weeks) = NEUTRAL
Short-term (1 day - 3 weeks) = 200% BULLISHfrom 1409 (today)
From previous outlook: "for thenew week the probabilities then favor continued selling into Monday’s session, withthe wide region between the 1370-1390 area acting as the downside magnet. If pricecorrects on down into this area and volume begins to contract here, then the breadthindexes are at a point where a sharp oversold bounce could be seen here. However, as withthe SPX, that initial bounce higher should lead the way to lower lows after completion.Prior support at the 1458 area is now new resistance to any move higher; primarily now the1442-1455 region - which is the new weekly projected resistance high region. In otherwords, if an early-week low develops on some contraction in technicals, then look for atry at the resistance region at some point mid-to-late week."
Current analysis: The NDX also posted lower lows for the swing with the tag of 1405.09 at the lows, holding abovethe 1370-1390 support range noted from last night. Volume here was also contracted, comingin at 1.8 billion shares, which is a contraction of 26% from Friday’s numbers. This,in additionto some of the breadth divergences that are forming, should be setting thisindex up for a bounce phase for the short-term. Whether that bounce comes straight off oftoday’s lows - or whether it holds off before yet another new low is seen is anunknown for now, as either could actually be seen here.
If a low was not made in today’ssession, then again support is in a wide range between the 1370-1390 region. If supportholds, then a bounce back to/towards resistance at the 1442-1455 (weekly projectedresistance high range) should be seen. If that bounce comes on low volume, then theexpectation would be a failure into that range and another drop back to or below the lowsseen on the next swing down. Stay tuned.
Jim Curry
Market Turns Advisory
Email: jcurry@cycle -wave.com
