3 replies to this topic

[mss]

The last chart may mean more to some of you than the others, but you should view them all.
As I have posted several times over the past week and some comments to other post, we are in a BEAR TREND with-in a Bull cycle IMO. The Mkt. is very weak and it will not take much to let it fall off a clif ( no crash) a steep prolonged slide. In the very short term we have a up-slopping channel, chart attached, and until the bottom trend line is broken the S&P will chop upward. Chart attached, update is my IT term outlook and has a good chance of happening. BULL wedge in a large up channel. Short term, 1165 does have lots of "stopping power" but the real test will be if we get to 1170+/- can we go on. IMO the High for this cycle is in 1229+/- although if we break out of the "yellow" wedge the top channel trend line could come into play. I posted under TSHARP's post, a long range overall outlook thru 2007, and if we break down the lower trend line, on second chart, 960 can/will happen.







Comments are welcomed.
Best to all,

[opinionated]

Think? 1123.50 next week with a test of 1170 the next week then a decline going into exp of 1104... Thats whats in the nut shell. Theres a trend line off the declining tops coming in around 9900 Dow... until we test that the big boyz will NOT play. And a simple glance at the 45 DMA and the 200DMA on all indexes tells the whole story. No need to make this more complicated than it is. Simply look at a 3-4 year time span

[geosing]

Looks like it is inconclusive as ever. Seems to me you can make either bullish or a bearish case, depending on your persuation. Market has been awfully good to daytraders like me with excellent daily range and good sized intraday swings. Do you think the past 8 sessions alternating direction every day has any significance? I get the feeling you are cautiously bullish near term (first week of May). At least to reach the trendline/top side of the wedge? Is this your view? Or do you expect a rally to the blue channel top in May?

In my simplistic weekly view, it looks like the downside is not done yet per measured move of the swings AB=CD, which is pointing to 1128-1130 area as a target (ES). Fortunately I don't have to trade based on such prognostications.

[mss]

quote=geosing,Apr 30 2005, 09:14 PM Do you think the past 8 sessions alternating direction every day has any significance? >>No not really. I get the feeling you are cautiously bullish near term (first week of May). At least to reach the trendline/top side of the wedge? Is this your view? Or do you expect a rally to the blue channel top in May? >> Yes to all of these questions. IMO until the BOTTOM BLUE channel line is broken to the down side, up-trend is in place and to be respected as such. In my simplistic weekly view, it looks like the downside is not done yet per measured move of the swings AB=CD, which is pointing to 1128-1130 area as a target (ES). Fortunately I don't have to trade based on such prognostications. >> An when that line is broken, you will be correct as to you projection. ALSO REMEMBER I ALMOST NEVER DAY TRADE AND MY OUTLOOK AND COMMENTS ARE BASED ON THAT FACT UNLESS STATED OTHERWISE. Thanks for your comments,