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LEIBOVIT FILES | by Mark Leibovit
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Leibovit Files
Thursday, May 12, 2005
Opening Comments
Attending the Money Show here in Las Vegas, it is obvious why there is
near unanimous trepidation and admonition toward owning real estate. It
is for that same reason all the official mouth pieces of Wall Street
broadcast this same consistent line. Buying real estate takes money away
from the Wall Street casino! Buying or trading securities is THEIR
BUSINESS and with cash committed elsewhere Wall Street and Money Show
participants will see their business wither. We don't share the view that
real estate is necessarily dead or to be avoided or that there is a
bubble. Yes, you have to be careful and selective and yes there could
emerge pockets of weakness as strong areas of the country (such as
Phoenix) attract more than their fair share of buyers. But the
gunslingers of Wall Street who created the internet bubble out of both
stupidty and naivety have disenfranchised investors who no longer want to
accept the level of volatility we've seen since 2000. They would rather
own real estate. So, if Money Show advisors don't like real estate, you
can bet your bottom dollar there is more coming to the upside - that's our
take!
Well, yesterday was 'Weird Wally Wednesday' and we certainly saw some
downside action, but it only lasted four hours and then market recovered.
Breadth improved into the close and volume was neutral. The burden of
proof remains with the bulls and if we begin clearing Monday's (May 9)
highs, don't fight the tape - that's our advice. Yes, we believe there is
greater downside action ahead and, yes, the markets found resistance at
the 50% retracement level (measured from the March 7 highs). But, bearish
sentiment is very high. Everyone is quoting the 'Sell May and go away'
mantra, but they are forgetting 'summer rallies' can begin early. We're
more than willing to jump on board the bearish bandwagon and did so
Tuesday, but we're not going to fight the tape, especially above Monday's
highs.
Gold and gold shares were weak as anticipated and, as you know, we're on
the sidelines in gold. The rally in the Dollar and potential further
gains in the Dollar should create further resistance for the precious
metals ahead, even though the bigger picture is bullish. We will, of
course, keep you posted with regards to any changes here. Gold shares are
quite cheap, but we need volume confirmation of a bottom -the classic
'Volume Reversal'.
We have no new recommendations this morning. DCTH on our Watch List was
an outstanding percentage gainer the past few days. Hopefully, we will
identify other such opportunities as they emerge.
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PORTFOLIO UPDATE | by Mark Leibovit
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VR Platinum Portfolio Update
Thursday, May 12, 2005
Pre-Market
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WATCHLIST
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LONGS
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SIRF - SIRF Technology Holdings 11.95
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
SIRF exploded out of a pullback on Friday, March 11 with very heavy
buying. <BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
SiRF Technology Holdings Inc. is a supplier of global positioning system
(GPS) semiconductor solutions designed to provide location awareness
capabilities in high-volume mobile consumer and commercial applications.
The Company develops semiconductor solutions designed to utilize GPS to
enable location awareness in high-volume mobile consumer devices and
commercial systems. It markets and sells its products in four target
platforms: wireless handheld, automotive, portable computing devices and
dedicated or embedded consumer and commercial devices. The Company's
products have been integrated into such mobile consumer devices as mobile
phones, automobile navigation systems, personal digital assistants,
handheld navigation devices and GPS-based peripheral devices, as well as
into commercial systems, such as fleet management and road-tolling
systems. Its product lines are available to original equipment
manufacturer (OEM) customers in four forms: chipsets, modules, IP cores
and software.<BR>
<BR>
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Wait for a break of the downtrend line which is currently around 12. SIRF
will probably consolidate some here. Aggressive investors can start
accumulating shares now. Place your stop below the March 8 low of 10.51.
Looking for 16 - 18.
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PTF - Petrofund Energy Trust 14.62
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
This is a Canadian trust that pays out well on dividends. It averaged
about a .12/share monthly dividend in 2004. It has bounced sharply higher
after finding support at its 200 day moving average.<BR>
<BR>
Petrofund Energy Trust (formerly NCE Petrofund) is an open-ended
investment trust whose primary source of income is from 99% net royalty
interests granted by its two wholly owned subsidiaries, PC and PVT
(formerly Ultima Ventures Trust). PC acquires, manages and disposes of
petroleum and natural gas rights and royalties and related property rights
and interests located primarily in western Canada. PC also holds the legal
interest to all properties beneficially owned by PVT. PVT receives 99% of
the net revenue from these properties, which it in turn pays out to
Petrofund in the form of the 99% net royalty noted above. In addition, PC
may acquire royalties or other property interests or securities of other
resource issuers. The Trust may also purchase directly or indirectly
securities of oil and gas companies, oil and gas properties and other
related assets. On June 16, 2004, PC acquired Ultima.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the March 30 low at 13.40. This is one
that could provide good income AND price appreciation.
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DHF - Dreyfus High Yield Strategies Fund 4.41
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
DHF has tested its March 23 low and rebounded with a positive VR.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the March 23 low at 4.23. We are not
looking to get rich off of this one. Looking for 4.70.
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DCTH - Delcath Systems Inc 2.10
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
DCTH has formed a Positive Volume Reversal ™ on Thursday, May 5 off of
a double bottom formation. There are also bullish divergences on various
momentum indicators. <BR>
<BR>
Delcath Systems, Inc. is a development stage company developing and
marketing a proprietary drug delivery system capable of introducing and
removing high-dose chemotherapy agents to a diseased organ system while
greatly inhibiting their entry into the general circulation system. The
Company has developed the Delcath system to isolate the liver from the
general circulatory system and to administer chemotherapy and other
therapeutic agents directly to the liver. Delcath is seeking to complete
clinical trials in order to obtain separate United States Food and Drug
Administration pre-marketing approvals for the use of its delivery system
using doxorubicin and melphalan, chemotherapeutic agents, to treat
malignant melanoma that has spread to the liver.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the April 7 low of 1.92. Looking for $3.
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SHORTS
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Sorry, no Short Watchlist to Report
Suggestions? Comments? on the newsletter service.
We would like to hear from each and everyone of
our subscribers. Our email is mark@vrsurvey.com.
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TIMER DIGEST MARKET SIGNALS
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For Monday, May 09, 2005
STOCKS: Bullish
BONDS: Neutral
GOLD: Neutral
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CURRENT PORTFOLIO
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Click here to see our Current Portfolio
http://www.vrtrader....lays/stocks.asp
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NEW PICKS
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Based on either Bullish or Bearish technical signals and the
Volume Reversal™ methodology, these stock picks look
primed to make a move. No trading system is 100% accurate and
care should be taken to consider market conditions before
entering any trade. Not all trades are suitable for all
investors and each investor should consider their own risk
profile before making a decision.
Format:
Symbol - Company Name
Buy @ = this is the strategic range picked by the VR staff.
Target: = estimated destination of equity during life of play.
Stop: = recommended* stop loss considering equity volatility.
*stop losses should be placed according to your own risk
tolerance.
=================================================================
RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY
When a stock declines/rallies 1 point or more from the price at
which bought or sold short, we will raise/lower stop to cost. This
will limit the potential loss on a trade. For each additional 1
point move, a further adjustment is made.
=================================================================
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CURRENT BULLISH STOCK PICKS
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HIET - 1/28/05 - Long @ 1.03 Target: 1.70 Stop:
0.60
WEL - 2/18/05 - Long @ 1.18 Target: 1.75 Stop:
0.80
LUV - 5/5/05 - Long @ 15.10 Target: 16.40 Stop:
14.40
MDM - 5/5/05 - Buy @ 1.60-1.70 Target: 3.00 Stop:
1.25
GLFD - 5/6/05 - Long @ 2.75 Target: 3.25 Stop:
2.20
GM - 5/6/05 - Buy @ 27.75-28.25 Target: 34.70 Stop:
24.60
QTWW - 5/9/05 - Long @ 3.68 Target: 5.00 Stop:
3.44
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CURRENT BULLISH INDEX PICKS
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N/A
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CURRENT BEARISH STOCK PICKS
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RYL - 5/10/05 - Short @ 62.84 Target: 58.00 Stop:
64.15
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CURRENT BEARISH INDEX PICKS
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QQQQ - 5/11/05 - Short @ 35.41 Target: 32.50 Stop:
36.06
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EXITED BULLISH STOCK PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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MPET - Picked(3/8/05): 1.75 Exited(4/18/05): 1.30 Result: -0.45
AEL - Picked(3/11/05): 11.75 Exited(4/12/05): 12.08 Result: 0.33
RAD - Picked(3/11/05): 3.95 Exited(4/21/05): 3.89 Result: -0.06
IPT - Picked(3/31/05): 0.73 Exited(4/27/05): 0.60 Result: -0.13
ALTI - Picked(4/4/05): 4.09 Exited(4/14/05): 3.25 Result: -0.84
AEM - Picked(4/11/05): 14.43 Exited(5/9/05): 13.07 Result: -1.36
JBLU - Picked(4/11/05): 19.90 Exited(4/21/05): 20.12 Result: 0.22
ERICY- Picked(4/12/05): 28.90 Exited(4/22/05): 31.06 Result: 2.16
STEM - Picked(4/13/05): 3.40 Exited(4/28/05): 3.02 Result: -0.38
NEM - Picked(4/18/05): 40.72 Exited(4/21/05): 40.91 Result: 0.19
IPSU - Picked(4/20/05): 13.60 Exited(4/22/05): 13.78 Result: 0.18
this - Picked(4/22/05): 27.30 Exited(4/27/05): 26.55 Result: -0.75
JBLU - Picked(4/22/05): 20.05 Exited(4/27/05): 19.22 Result: -0.83
IFX - Picked(4/25/05): 9.22 Exited(4/26/05): 8.83 Result: -0.39
AMHC - Picked(4/26/05): 37.90 Exited(5/6/05): 38.46 Result: 0.56
AMLN - Picked(4/26/05): 18.25 Exited(4/29/05): 17.04 Result: -1.21
IPSU - Picked(4/26/05): 13.50 Exited(5/5/05): 12.90 Result: -0.60
AEXCA- Picked(5/2/05): 30.60 Exited(5/3/05): 28.95 Result: -1.65
IVAN - Picked(5/2/05): 2.36 Exited(5/6/05): 2.44 Result: 0.08
LUFK - Picked(5/2/05): 31.20 Exited(5/3/05): 30.40 Result: -0.80
HDI - Picked(5/3/05): 47.50 Exited(5/6/05): 49.00 Result: 1.50
ASA - Picked(5/4/05): 35.00 Exited(5/9/05): 35.05 Result: 0.05
HL - Picked(5/4/05): 4.83 Exited(5/9/05): 4.82 Result: -0.01
PDG - Picked(5/4/05): 13.50 Exited(5/9/05): 13.88 Result: 0.38
GRU - Picked(5/10/05): 18.25 Exited(5/11/05): 16.45 Result: -1.80
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EXITED BULLISH INDEX PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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TLT - Picked(4/11/05): 89.49 Exited(4/19/05): 91.60 Result: 2.11
IWM - Picked(4/13/05): 121.60 Exited(4/13/05): 119.83 Result: -1.77
SPY - Picked(4/13/05): 118.56 Exited(4/13/05): 117.40 Result: -1.16
QQQQ - Picked(4/18/05): 34.84 Exited(4/20/05): 34.84 Result: 0.00
SPY - Picked(4/18/05): 114.47 Exited(4/20/05): 114.47 Result: 0.00
NYC - Picked(4/20/05): 64.46 Exited(4/22/05): 64.36 Result: -0.10
QQQQ - Picked(4/26/05): 35.65 Exited(4/26/05): 35.35 Result: -0.30
SPY - Picked(5/2/05): 116.45 Exited(5/4/05): 117.01 Result: 0.56
HHH - Picked(5/5/05): 53.80 Exited(5/6/05): 54.71 Result: 0.91
SPY - Picked(5/5/05): 116.85 Exited(5/6/05): 117.64 Result: 0.79
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EXITED BEARISH STOCK PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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CTX - Picked(4/7/05): 58.44 Exited(4/12/05): 58.17 Result: 0.27
CSX - Picked(4/11/05): 41.76 Exited(4/12/05): 41.32 Result: 0.44
AMD - Picked(4/14/05): 16.52 Exited(4/15/05): 15.98 Result: 0.54
SHLD - Picked(4/20/05): 135.74 Exited(4/21/05): 131.75 Result: 3.99
PHM - Picked(4/21/05): 69.50 Exited(4/21/05): 69.71 Result: -0.21
FWRD - Picked(4/22/05): 24.20 Exited(4/25/05): 24.33 Result: -0.13
GR - Picked(4/27/05): 37.62 Exited(4/28/05): 38.90 Result: -1.28
PHM - Picked(4/27/05): 71.85 Exited(4/28/05): 72.60 Result: -0.75
DHI - Picked(4/28/05): 29.67 Exited(4/29/05): 30.24 Result: -0.57
PHM - Picked(4/28/05): 69.17 Exited(4/29/05): 70.91 Result: -1.74
-------------------------------------------------------
EXITED BEARISH INDEX PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
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HHH - Picked(4/7/05): 55.57 Exited(4/12/05): 52.87 Result: 2.70
IWN - Picked(4/11/05): 183.40 Exited(4/12/05): 180.85 Result: 2.55
SPY - Picked(4/11/05): 118.29 Exited(4/12/05): 117.29 Result: 1.00
DIA - Picked(4/20/05): 100.30 Exited(4/21/05): 101.14 Result: -0.84
QQQQ - Picked(4/20/05): 34.84 Exited(4/21/05): 35.16 Result: -0.32
SPY - Picked(4/27/05): 114.86 Exited(4/29/05): 115.40 Result: -0.54
XLE - Picked(4/27/05): 41.91 Exited(5/2/05): 40.60 Result: 1.31
QQQQ - Picked(4/29/05): 34.62 Exited(4/29/05): 34.89 Result: -0.27
OIH - Picked(5/4/05): 89.54 Exited(5/4/05): 89.54 Result: 0.00
XLE - Picked(5/4/05): 40.31 Exited(5/4/05): 40.64 Result: -0.33
OIH - Picked(5/5/05): 93.05 Exited(5/11/05): 91.13 Result: 1.92
SPY - Picked(5/5/05): 117.11 Exited(5/11/05): 117.11 Result: 0.00
VNQ - Picked(5/9/05): 55.05 Exited(5/9/05): 55.60 Result: -0.55
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About Mark Lebovit
