For 30 to 90 days horizon:
Long SPX on 6/16/05 at 1210.93. Flat the SPX (6/22/05) at 1213.88 for gain of.24%
Long NASDAQ on 6/16/05 at 2089.15. Flat Nasdaq (6/22/05) at 2092.03 for gain of modestgain of .14%.
Short term Trade: Long S&P cash 10:45Eastern 6/16/05 (morning cut off) at 1211.95. Flat S&P cash 6/22/05 at 1213.88 forgain of .16%.
For monitoring purposes: Long XAU, 87.96 on 4/21/04.
Longer Term Trend monitoring purposes: flat.
We sold our positions in the S&P today because the NYSE McClellan Oscillator isshowing a negative divergence and suggest the S&P does not have enough strength tohead higher near term. However, we are only expecting a consolation that may lastspossibly into the August time frame. The August time frame is the anniversary oflast year low. Anniversary time frames a lot of the time mark turns in themarket. We are not bearish here on the bigger times frames. The reason is thatthe "Wilshire 5000" on June 17 hit the previous swing of March 7 on highervolume. High volume tops are always tested if not exceeded. This conditionsuggest you can have pull backs but once the pull back is complete the market will againtest if not break the June 17 high on the Wilshire at 12110. Therefore, if themarket does pull back here, we will look for the next buy signal. We sold ourS&P position today for a .24% gain on the "30 to 90 day Horizon" and .14%gain for the short term S&P position.
We bought ASTM at 2.63 (5/26/05), It's aBiotech. Our stop at 2.79 was hit today (6/22/05). Gain of 6%.
Nasdaq Composite:
We have displayed a graph of the Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator index on the last page ofthis report,(Courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com). What this graph shows on the Nasdaqis that the current high has less stocks rising than the previous high at the beginning ofJune. These type of short-term negative divergence show up right before a top. We are not expecting any severe decline here but there is likelihood for a pull back thatcould last several weeks. We were expecting the 2100 level to be broken because onJune 17 the Nasdaq attacked the 2100 area on high volume and suggest the market wasattempting to break through. To break through the 2100 level there should be astrong number of issues carry the market higher. On the test of the 2100 area today theOscillator is much lower compared to the early June high and today's test of theprevious high of June 17 had much lighter volume and is also a short term bearishsign. We still expect the Nasdaq will break the 2100 barrier this year but at a laterdate. The low last year in August may be an important time frame for the next turnin the Market. We are flat the Nasdaq on today's close for a modes gain.
GOLD Market:
"Timer Digest" has ranked Tim Ord as the #2 goldtimer for 2004.
Short term trade, Long BGO (4/19/05) at 2.37. This trade is separate from ourlong-term position in BGO. We bought EGO (gold Issue) at 2.23 (5/26/05). We bought PMU(5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81.
There is really no significant resistance on the XAU until the March high near the 103range on the XAU. We expect the XAU to work to that range in the coming weeks. The 103 area could put in a consolidation phase that could last a month to 6 weeks. Before the year is out, we expect the XAU to jump the January and November highs of 113and rally to 120 to 130 range before the another consolidation set in. Our longerterm target is still 180 range.
We double our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price at2.70. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.75. Long NXG average of 2.26. We bought PMU(5/27/05) at .50 and bring our average price to .81.
The McClellan Oscillator closed today's at +54 and overbought for theshort term.
The “Percent Volume” Indicator closed .56 and neutral.
The "5 day ARMS" close today at 4.60 and neutral.
Conclusion: A consolidation may begin near term.
Longer Term Trend monitoring purposes: ShortSPX on 4/12/05 at 1187.76. Covered Short SPX on 5/17/05at 1173.80 for gain of 1.2%.
