4 replies to this topic

[SilentOne]

As a rule, I don't like to bet against Jeff's SKI signals. cheers, john ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ I am providing an honest and hopefully accurate statement. Best wishes. Jeff Kern SKI Alert 6/27/05 Today’s drop in the gold stocks, with USERX falling below 7.58 (to 7.55), generated the immediate 92-96 index master sell signal. SELL and that sell will be even clearer if/when they go down again tomorrow. That should have been the top and a decline below the prior low of 6.28 is likely. If the indices are wrong, it would require a rise tomorrow over 7.88 (about 5% up). After tomorrow, a new 92-96 buy signal (and a true SKI bull market) would require even higher prices. Although that is always possible, a new sell signal has been generated and a new leg down should be imminent. When I know what I am supposed to write, the message is relatively brief. We reached level 3 resistance (the highest possible) and the indices indicate that the top for this rally is in. If the expected decline occurs, a new 16-20 index buy signal will occur, but it is XXed Out and should not be executed. I don’t have any observable support at this time. If one sells and I am wrong, so be it. I MUST STATE WHAT THIS SITUATION APPEARS TO BE. BE SAFE. I will buy if this is wrong and a new bull market 92-96 buy signal occurs. A decline tomorrow will further erode that likelihood. I wrote and sent the Update this weekend stating that one shouldn’t stay long if a 92-96 sell signal occurs (unless it happened on the way up and the index was giving a bull market buy at the same time) but that a true bull market is possible. This concludes my rare SKI alert; they’ve been right except for the first one this year that said buy and after a rise of 6 days, the goldies collapsed to yield a 1% loss (in USERX) and a sell alert was sent at 8.13 (as well as the day before at 8.26). When I send these alerts I am always scared that the indices will be wrong. Hence they are infrequent but of high probability. I am ready to face the criticisms. I am only trying to honestly assist at no fee. It’s only a few times a year that I don’t hedge the statements and that I send an alert. OK, I am sending this. Please appreciate that the process of updating addresses, sending many 1000s of emails, etc. takes me several hours. In a perverse way, I do it because I enjoy it. P.S. While the computers were rebooting, I called my colleague for his opinion/confirmation. He agreed that SKI has nothing to indicate that one should be long gold stocks. That no one can be sure of the future, but that this is an extremely low probability moment to be a buyer. That a rise to a new 92-96 buy signal is required to be bullish.

[Slothrop]

Thanks for taking the time to update us. I like the self-deprecating, intelligent appeal here.

[wxman]

fits in with what I've been expecting, at least 150 HUI

[Slothrop]

Well, Silent One, what's the indicator say now that XAU's broken back above 94?

[SilentOne]

Hi S!

More angst for Jeff that is for certain.

cheers,

john

PS Go here to check out his updates.

http://www.321gold.c...rn/current.html

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SKI Gold Stock Prediction
Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: skigoldstocks@yahoo.com
USERX | historicals
for Thurs. Jun 30, 2005

An Update (for my emotional health)

Following Monday's SKI Alert reporting that the 92-96 index had generated its sell signal, and Tuesday's execution of that signal at 7.42, the gold stocks skyrocketed up 4% today (6/29/05). A mid-week Update is therefore warranted for readers and for my emotional health.

I did, of course, write this weekend and Monday that such a sell signal could yield a whipsaw move higher to generate a new 92-96 index buy signal and a bull market. Today's explosion, right on cue a day after the sell day, certainly fits into the whipsaw and bull market scenario. I had strongly considered going short on Monday, but refrained. If I had gone short, I'd guess that I would have been forced by my emotions to cover today. Frankly, didn't it look to be impossible for prices to suddenly rise 10% in just a few days to generate the bull signal? Now it looks possible, but it has not, as yet, happened.

And yet, note those 92-96 back prices that we must go over to generate the bull signal: Today the lowest back price was at 7.78 and those back prices keep rising. Today's rise to 7.72 wasn't sufficient to even touch any of those back prices and we got another -5 for the day on the 92-96 index. It'll take at least three more trading days and further rises to generate the bull market. It looks like USERX (the gold mutual fund) will need to rise about another 30 cents over several days to generate the 92-96 buy signal on the Path. That now looks feasible, doesn't it? I will be scared to buy at such a high price, but I am ready. Heaven forbid that such a bull signal would mark a high, but the stop would also be rising. Three-day weekends often mark critical points and one such weekend is just 2 days away.

So we'll see over the next few days whether today's explosion will fail or whether the buy signal will be generated. A third, most frustrating possibility, is that prices keep rising but fail to go over the 92-96 back prices. Then I'd have nothing. That would be the strangest of all possibilities.

I wrote and did what I was supposed to. Today could have been a 5% down day and it actually looked like that would happen as gold declined overnight. But just as the gold stocks were about to collapse today, the buyers entered. My colleague tried to assuage me by saying that I wrote exactly what I was supposed to: A collapse or a whipsaw explosion was imminent and that one simply must avoid being long on a 92-96 sell signal. Nonetheless, when I saw the gold stocks up 1% this morning, I was nauseous again and expected an even larger up today that would hit the 92-96 back prices.

Note how the indices marked the critical spot again, as usual. It's all incredible to me. But what good is it if sell signals mark bottoms to the day? Maybe it'll collapse in the next two days and today was a fake-out? I am not allowed to buy until I get a buy signal, but I'm extremely frustrated today and something dramatic is unfolding. I know that I'm one of the few writers that are self-demeaning, but I also am the only writer that says his indices mark the critical points down to the day, one day ahead of time. You just saw it again.

Best wishes.

Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: skigoldstocks@yahoo.com

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