No replies to this topic

[TTHQ Staff]

(Complimentary excerpt of Friday's Daily Briefing, posted at www.ingerletter.com late Thursday evening. As of mid-morning MarketCast intraday audio-email guidelines are long S&P at 1203.)

Gene Inger's Daily Briefing. . . . for Friday, July 8, 2005:

Good Evening;

Explosions rocked . . . London's transport system, but did not shake foundations of communications systems necessary for efficient markets, after initial (often incorrect) responses by markets to the assault. Horrific as the attack was, this was not a 9-11, so investor stability quickly returned to the fore, albeit with trepidation about unknown dimensions of the latest barbarian aggression. Liquidity injections by neither the Bank of England or the U.S. Fed were needed, so underlying bids returned. We suggested (in our intraday MarketCast audio-email comments) that markets would come back; going long the Sept. S&P's at 1189 early-on; staying optimistic until the day's close.

Orange alerts . . . for mass transit, does not entirely or accurately describe the U.S. domestic response to the sorrow brought upon the stoic British people by the world's scum, who incredulously (as the late Pope observed in horror) actually embrace the killing of people in the name of religion (or what passes for a religious 'crusade' by a notable minority of Islam against the civilized world, including their own populations).

That attackers continue to 'blame the victims', or that some in Western media don't this linkage as part of the corrosive -and erosive- effort to undermine zest to resist by civilized man (of all faiths, including Islam), is incredulous. Where, besides necessary ritual reporting of the atrocities brought upon mankind by a religiously-shrouded Islam minority, is the outrage? It is increasingly visible in Europe, and in the Middle East as well. Will the media find gumption to urgently start calling a spade a shovel, finally? Where is the outrage and revelations about real causes for the brainwashing of many Islamic youths' sick motivations, inspired in madrassas, which should be shuttered. A couple series (after 9-11) revealed all this; but it's time to re-enlighten the population.

Some day the (occasionally misguided or ill-informed) media will realize the crusader forces are those of radical Islamism, not those of the Western world. Some day they'll even report the true motives of al Qaeda; the control of people (achieved through the control of Oil, by deposing the West and the ruling elites in the Middle East and Gulf, which is really what this is mostly about), impositions of ancient interpretations of the religion (need we quote General Patton's remarks about evolution of certain Islamic types stuck in the 7th Century, while Western man advanced); outspoken intolerance (of the type making any Christian proselytizing through history pale by comparison), which tries to dehumanize all non-Moslems and marginalizes their societal structure. These are classic means of fostering hatred and killing; so it is an 'Islamic crusade' (not the first one either, ask any family forced into Islam in the Balkans or Spain just hundreds of years ago how that came to be, why it isn't disclosed for what it is, and why allegations against the West are mostly trumped-up, since they forced response by Europe to protect what remained after brutal aggressive Islamic proselytizing).

Along with grappling with the moral and spiritual courage to confront our enemy, just as firmly as they confront us, there is more to consider. By worrying about every little infraction of their slice of 'civil rights' (as important as it may be overall), we must not neglect the serious challenge of pursuing these vermin, wherever their lairs may be .. remember that even though in the 1950's, it was shown that the House Unamerican Activities Committee were of course a bit extreme at times; but that there were over 350 communist agents already in positions where they had deeply penetrated every Governmental and military institution. So now that the files in Russia became open, we know it was not just a witch-hunt, though for sure aspects of that were a bit much. We know that Alger Hiss was not incorrectly persecuted; we know Chambers was as it turned out entirely correct, and that the 'elitists' defending Hiss were totally wrong, as are the elitists trying to find fault with the West to explain the actions of Islamists.

The point of course, as we morn the losses in London today and grieve for mankind's having to endure the wrath of these sub-humans who somehow think they are above all of us and doing Allah's work, rather than that of the devil (as no central faith would condone the taking of innocent life in 'his' name), is that there is no reason to ever be apologists for these monsters, and that there's no reason to ever take our eyes off of the ball so long as the leadership and structure of the terrorists cells, and if needed a series of 'armories' masquerading as mosques supporting them, continue to exist. If and when that structure is dismantled (or relegated to truly being just for expressions of faith, and nothing more, then we can talk about an end to threats against civility).

Of course we must contemplate (as mentioned earlier) the 'dimensions of this attack', and whether we can take solace over smaller numbers killed in London vs. Madrid or vs. New York (as some pundits) do, or consider this may have been an opening salvo in a summertime campaign by the barbarians against the civilized world. Already we know of increased hostilities in Iraq (aimed at normal Moslems primarily); aggressive assaults and reorganization in Afghanistan and the mountains of Pakistan, and likely a growing campaign against those Arab regimes increasingly trying to undo the long years of wrongs they financed, who have finally figured out they were paying tribute to engineer their own demise. Finally the world is increasingly unifying against this. It is absolutely possible that in the early days of the Iraqi campaign we didn't focus on a worldwide terror onslaught sufficiently, but even if so, that's not the case now (and we still suspect Saddam had WMD's; just moved them to Syria, and that while not linked directly to al Qaeda, there's little doubt we're fighting them over there now). What we are seeing in the market will not have a long-run negative effect, providing that there is not a summertime campaign that has been gearing-up against the world for many months, and that's the 'wild card' about which we cannot be entirely clear at this time.

In the meantime it's not inappropriate to discuss finances. The perpetrators are trying to disrupt the investing world, but couldn't penetrate Canary Wharf in London, which in fact we are aware they have attempted (according to London Metropolitan Police). Since they are trying to subrogate trading and commerce, let's continue investing in innovative (sometimes even disruptive) new technologies or the new jobs associated therewith, which are critically important to ridding the world of what is clearly nothing less than a malignancy from which we all suffer, until the sea of Islamist supporters or structures enabling their bombers to kill are destroyed. That's why we concur they will need to feel British steel just as quickly as feasible as these investigations proceed.

The only lament may be that so much of Scotland Yard and MI6 capabilities were in a diversion due to the G8 meeting, that the enemy decided to attack while London was a bit shy of security resources, for this reason. An interesting story (unconfirmed) that Israeli intelligence picked something up a couple days ago, and appropriately warned Scotland Yard that something might be afoot. However (as the report goes), London hoped it would be another false alarm, and didn't follow-up. We don't know if that was at all true, though political dynamite if it turns out to be. During World War II, perhaps sixty million in the overall Allied world perished, but we soldiered on. So will we now it is presumed, and the results too, however far this goes, may carry to a conclusion of sorts that rids the world of this particular type of despotic barbaric threat permanently.

Mass psychologically is very important; not just toughening-up against monsters. This time the U.S. President issued a very profound articulate remark, essentially saying in Scotland that 'we will spread the ideology of hope and compassion, which will overwhelm their ideology of killing and hate'.

Daily action . . . . has essentially been coverered; a stronger market and one that is headed higher. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and Semiconductor Index (SOX) are quite firm actually, and suggest to us that the market's underpinnings remain equally so.

Stay tuned to this market, forecast to not evolve according to old common behavior. That's because the market has habitually not acted in a seasonal way this year, and about that we forewarned before the year's start. 2nd half prospects continue stronger in our view, as we've emphasized each day this spring as the upward process began. Hence I suspect pauses that do occur continue to be within overall evolving structural (pattern as outlined to ingerletter.com members). Do not expect this to automatically continue throughout the entire summer depending on factors not yet entirely visible to a point (politically, fundamentally, or technically) to yet make major decisions upon.

Bits & Bytes . . . notes consolidation by monitored techs. Please review prior night's comments about 'War of the World's', 'Active Denial Systems' and Raytheon's new work with the Energy Dept. (particularly nuclear facility defense work), if you missed it last night. Wednesday night I suggested that there would not be much response to Ionatron's (IOTN) rollout of the first production JIN. There wasn't; that's for later-on.

Texas Instruments (TXN), Motorola (MOT), and Intel (INTC) all consolidated during the past week; then advanced (as noted at ingerletter.com). Ditto Cisco (CISCO), Microsoft (MSFT), Essex (KEYW) and others. As to the new innovative RFID play (its name remains reserved for members), we are pleased that it 'popped' 50% or so and is now settling-back mildly after some nominal news about European efforts.


Members please note: we have no association with IOTN or for that matter any other publicly traded firm (never have had) other than as shareholders of course. Yours truly remains an Ionatron shareholder throughout coverage timeframes, as regularly noted. Comments are interpretative speculative postulations, provided 'as is with all faults', and all risks, with no assurance about future performance of anything in any way whatsoever.

In summary . . events continue reminding us of risks Allied fighting forces face, given continued attacks on free peoples, by elements including organized terrorist armies in Iraq. A world awakening to terror and nuclear threats grows, as domestic concerns retreat from absorbing us. Though few generally concur, our view has been slow but persistent American growth isn't negative, allowing protracted gradual growth without ancillary significant high interest rate pressures. There's no truly-restrictive monetary policy; nor is there likely to be one employed, irrespective of oil-induced inflationary pressures; though it's likely this is again tempered by further eventual oil price drops.

McClellan Oscillator finds NY 'Mac' rebounding further (this helps preparation for an extension we suspect, in harmony with our overall outlook); currently +52 today; as NASDAQ advances adaquately; presently +20. (Note the Mc's were firm while the DJ lost a hundred; interesting and not negative.) Issues continue to include oil, of course Iraq; and Europe moving to less-hostile stances vis-à-vis the United States.
As to flies in the bullish alternative continuing; in our view, it's realization terror matrix issue continues, with challenges ahead, and as attacks and various difficulties show. Ongoing earthquake temblors continuing in lighter bunches across much of the West.

Finally as to Hurricane Dennis; the computer model tracks show it slightly Westward of last night's positions. BUT, the Bermuda High which has kept it further South up 'till now, threatens to split into two sections. It's not clear yet (and no forecast change of significance has been made), but that's why it jumped to the North of Jamaica and is why it will now impact central Cuba (possibly a direct hit on Havana), and then do a beeline towards Key West. That is also why a Tropical Storm watch is now issued for Miami from Golden Beach (Hollywood) south. (More implication discussion provided.)
We suspected the surprise this week might be some early horsing around, and then a substantial rally try, in an abbreviated trading week. So far so very good; though the terror and news backdrop makes it very very volatile. Historically markets are usually higher a week after such an assault. Tomorrow the Employment Report comes out, and the consensus is something like 200,000 new non-farm payrolls; shy but decent is o.k. in any event. S&P flat this evening in early trading. We suspected Thursday to be down-sideways-dip-up ideally, and it was (to say the least). Friday up-dip-up is the goal for the session.

Enjoy the evening!
Gene

Gene Inger,
Publisher

About Gene Inger