The Pre-Market Report
The 11:00 AM EST Report
The 1:00 PM EST Report
The 3:30 PM EST Report
The Daily Sector Volume Reversals Report
The Post-Market Report
*Additional Intraday Alerts may vary
The Full Day's Reports (below in sequential order) are a compilation of the issues received by Subscribers on Tuesday, 7/19/05.
---------------------------------------------------------------
PORTFOLIO UPDATE | by Mark Leibovit
---------------------------------------------------------------
VR Platinum Portfolio Update
Tuesday, July 19, 2005
Pre-Market
New Changes
----------------------------------
WY - Changed Target From 59.00 To Market
MDY - Changed Target From 127.00-127.50 To Market
XLE - Changed Stop From 47.31 To 45.88
XLE - Note: XLE found support yesterday, but a close under yesterday's
lows (44.86) would suggest more selling to follow, so stay tuned.
Covering short here to lock in trading profit.
XLE - Changed Target From 43.00 To Market
XLE - Note: XLE found support yesterday, but a close under yesterday's
lows (44.86) would suggest more selling to follow, so stay tuned.
Covering short here to lock in trading profit.
DD - Changed Target From 41.00 To Market
FBR - Changed Target From 13.90 To Market
=================================================================
---------------------------------------------------------------
LEIBOVIT FILES | by Mark Leibovit
---------------------------------------------------------------
Leibovit Files
Tuesday, July 19, 2005
Opening Comments
Good morning.
We saw Some downside fireworks yesterday but it was muted a bit by the
lack of increasing downside volume. Breadth, however, was negative.
IBM's earnings report following yesterday's close is generating some
buying interest in overnight trading, but we have often learned that news
stories can be faded by traders the following session. As you know, we
were looking for some downside followthrough on Monday and possibly this
week hopefully led by recent market leaders the S&P 400 Midcap and Russell
2000. Yesterday saw modest downside participation in those indexes,
despite a quite apparent negative divergence late last week. Also,
short-term overbought/oversold indicators dipped into oversold territory
yesterday. So, our trading strategy is cover shorts and watch from the
sidelines rather than be heroic in a still near-term cyclical uptrend
which we have discussed. We always reserve the right to react to any new
market down signals - so stay tuned.
Blue chips were painting the tape red yesterday led by the Dow
Industrials. The Dow Industrials, as you know, have been the weaker of
the major indexes as of late, especially since the Dollar Index has been
showing strength as of late. We're keeping our eye on the more broadly
based New York Stock Exchange Index (NYSI), the Nasdaq Composite and, of
course, the Midcap and Russell as better guides to the market's internal
strength.
Overall, we are sticking to our belief based on our VR Forecaster Annual
Forecast Model and other cyclical work that the market still has upside
potential though indeed the clock is slowly ticking against the timing of
such an advance. Should the S&P 500 close decisivel above the 1235 level,
that would be a very strong sign more upward acceleration is ahead.
=================================================================
----------------
WATCHLIST
----------------
----------------
LONGS
----------------
PTF - Petrofund Energy Trust 14.62
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
This is a Canadian trust that pays out well on dividends. It averaged
about a .12/share monthly dividend in 2004. It has bounced sharply higher
after finding support at its 200 day moving average.
Petrofund Energy Trust (formerly NCE Petrofund) is an open-ended
investment trust whose primary source of income is from 99% net royalty
interests granted by its two wholly owned subsidiaries, PC and PVT
(formerly Ultima Ventures Trust). PC acquires, manages and disposes of
petroleum and natural gas rights and royalties and related property rights
and interests located primarily in western Canada. PC also holds the legal
interest to all properties beneficially owned by PVT. PVT receives 99% of
the net revenue from these properties, which it in turn pays out to
Petrofund in the form of the 99% net royalty noted above. In addition, PC
may acquire royalties or other property interests or securities of other
resource issuers. The Trust may also purchase directly or indirectly
securities of oil and gas companies, oil and gas properties and other
related assets. On June 16, 2004, PC acquired Ultima.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the March 30 low at 13.40. This is one
that could provide good income AND price appreciation.
--------------------------------------------------------------
DPII - Discovery Partners International 3.00
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
DPII put in a bullish outside day on June 2 with high volume after a
prolonged decline. We are looking for a solid move to the upside here.
There are bullish divergences on momentum indicators also.
Discovery Partners International, Inc. (DPII) engages in the development
and provision of libraries of drug-like compounds, instruments, consumable
supplies, drug discovery services, computational tools to generate
compound libraries, and testing and screening services for various drugs.
It offers instruments and consumables that automate the process of making
and storing collections, or libraries of chemical compounds; and chemistry
services, that include compounds, medical chemistry, drug discovery
informatics, and compound repository services. DPI also provides screening
services. In addition, the company designs and conducts assays or tests
that generate information about the effect of chemical compounds on a drug
target. DPI sells its products and services to pharmaceutical and
biopharmaceutical companies in the United States, Europe, Japan, and
India. The company was founded as IRORI in 1995 and changed its name to
Discovery Partners International, Inc. in 1998. Discovery Partners
International is headquartered in San Diego, California.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the June 2 low of 2.81. Target $4.00.
--------------------------------------------------------------
ALDN - Aladdin Knowledge Systems 21.46
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
With the repeated announcements of credit card information theft from
companies charged with protecting our information, we took a look at
the most promising companies that might be contracted if the data storage
companies sought outside electronic security help. Aladdin Knowledge
Systems has a bullish looking chart formation and has been consolidating
at a high level for the past seven months. We are expecting a breakout
and this one should provide a handsome return over the long term. ALDN
gapped down March 20 but recovered nicely on high volume in what looks
like a shakeout move.
Aladdin Knowledge Systems, Ltd. provides solutions for software digital
rights management and Internet security. Its products include the
universal serial bus-based eToken device for user authentication and<BR>
e-commerce security; eSafe, a line of integrated content security
solutions that protect networks against malicious, inappropriate, and
nonproductive Internet-borne content; and HASP (hardware against software
privacy), HASP DocSeal, and Hardlock that includes both software and
hardware to protect its customers’ software against unauthorized copying
and illegal use. The company products also include Privilege, a software
licensing and protection platform that enables secure software
distribution via compact disk, electronic software distribution, or
peer-to-peer networks. It offers its products primarily to software
developers and distributors. The company markets its products primarily in
Israel, the United States, Europe, and southeast Asia. Aladdin Knowledge
Systems was founded by Jacob Margalit in 1985. The company is
headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop at 13.00. We are looking for ALDN to challenge
the March 2000 high of 44.75.
--------------------------------------------------------------
CNXT - Conexant Systems, Inc. 1.72
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
CNXT is part of a group that has seen some solid buying the last few
weeks. CNXT posted a Positive VR on Friday, July 8. With the Nasdaq
breaking through 2100 and semiconductors leading the way, we feel that
CNXT could see solid gains.
Conexant Systems, Inc. engages in designing, developing, and selling
semiconductor solutions for broadband communications, enterprise networks,
and the digital homes worldwide. Its semiconductor solutions include
semiconductor devices, software, and reference designs. The company offers
modem chipsets and software for desktop and notebook PC applications, as
well as fax machines, multifunction peripherals, point-of-sale terminals,
set-top boxes, gaming consoles, and Internet terminals. It also provides
media processing solutions, including various broadcast audio and video
decoders and encoder devices. It markets and sells its products to
original equipment manufactures and electronic components distributors, as
well as to third-party electronic manufacturing service providers. The
company was incorporated as Rockwell Semiconductor Systems, Inc. in 1996
and changed its name to Conexant Systems, Inc. in 1998. Conexant is
headquartered in Newport Beach, California
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the June 15 low of 1.40. Looking for
3.50.
--------------------------------------------------------------
CKCM - Click Commerce Inc 22.90
COMPANY PROFILE:
WHY WE LIKE IT:
CKCM looks to be coming out of a three week pullback with a Positive VR on
Friday, July 8. The Internet Software & Services group seems to be
awakening after a four week pullback.
Click Commerce, Inc. supplies collaborative commerce and compliance
automation software and related services. It offers channel management
solution that provides an integrated channel management and collaborative
e-commerce solution; compliance automation solutions to improve the
approval processes by connecting research departments through
administrative extranets; supply chain execution solutions that include
supplier enablement, fulfillment coordination, service logistics, reverse
logistics, and shipment execution solutions; warehouse execution solution
that supports a range of logistics network configurations; and data
synchronization and secure communications solutions that allow companies
to communicate business information with their trading partner community
through the Internet. The company also provides various professional
services in connection with its software, including hosting, site
administration, implementation services, training, maintenance, and
customer support. Click Commerce provides its solutions to various
enterprises and institutions in the manufacturing, high tech, financial
services, retail, healthcare, and higher education industries worldwide
through its direct sales force. The company was founded by Michael W.
Ferro, Jr. It was incorporated in 1996 as Click Interactive, Inc. and
changed its name to Click Commerce, Inc. in 1999. Click Commerce is
headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
POTENTIAL TRIGGER:
Buy at market with a stop below the May 17 low of 17.00. Upside target is
30.
--------------------------------------------------------------
----------------
SHORTS
----------------
Sorry, no Short Watchlist to Report
--------------------------------------------------------------
TIMER DIGEST MARKET SIGNALS
--------------------------------------------------------------
For Friday, July 15, 2005
STOCKS: Bullish
BONDS: Neutral
GOLD: Neutral
--------------------------------------------------------------
CURRENT PORTFOLIO
--------------------------------------------------------------
Click here to see our Current Portfolio
http://www.vrtrader....lays/stocks.asp
=================================================================
NEW PICKS
=================================================================
Based on either Bullish or Bearish technical signals and the
Volume Reversal™ methodology, these stock picks look
primed to make a move. No trading system is 100% accurate and
care should be taken to consider market conditions before
entering any trade. Not all trades are suitable for all
investors and each investor should consider their own risk
profile before making a decision.
Format:
Symbol - Company Name
Buy @ = this is the strategic range picked by the VR staff.
Target: = estimated destination of equity during life of play.
Stop: = recommended* stop loss considering equity volatility.
*stop losses should be placed according to your own risk
tolerance.
=================================================================
RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY
When a stock declines/rallies 1 point or more from the price at
which bought or sold short, we will raise/lower stop to cost. This
will limit the potential loss on a trade. For each additional 1
point move, a further adjustment is made.
=================================================================
------------------------------------------------------
CURRENT BULLISH STOCK PICKS
------------------------------------------------------
HIET - 1/28/05 - Long @ 1.03 Target: 1.70 Stop:
0.30
AEM - 7/6/05 - Long @ 12.57 Target: 15.00 Stop:
12.08
SWC - 7/6/05 - Long @ 7.44 Target: 11.00 Stop:
6.00
MDM - 7/13/05 - Long @ 2.55 Target: 3.50 Stop:
1.50
SYMC - 7/13/05 - Buy @ 22.50-22.80 Target: 25.25-25.50 Stop:
20.95
TRBS - 7/13/05 - Long @ 30.95 Target: 40.00 Stop:
28.00
AWA - 7/14/05 - Buy @ 6.40-6.45 Target: 7.50-8.00 Stop:
5.45
------------------------------------------------------
CURRENT BULLISH INDEX PICKS
------------------------------------------------------
N/A
------------------------------------------------------
CURRENT BEARISH STOCK PICKS
------------------------------------------------------
WY - 7/14/05 - Short @ 64.83 Target: Market Stop:
65.35
DD - 7/15/05 - Short @ 44.06 Target: Market Stop:
44.76
FBR - 7/15/05 - Short @ 14.80 Target: Market Stop:
15.36
------------------------------------------------------
CURRENT BEARISH INDEX PICKS
------------------------------------------------------
TLT - 7/6/05 - Short @ 94.63 Target: 88.00-89.00 Stop:
94.63
MDY - 7/15/05 - Short @ 128.82 Target: Market Stop:
130.30
XLE - 7/15/05 - Short @ 45.88 Target: Market Stop:
45.88
-------------------------------------------------------
EXITED BULLISH STOCK PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
-------------------------------------------------------
WEL - Picked(2/18/05): 1.18 Exited(7/15/05): 1.26 Result: 0.08
GLFD - Picked(5/6/05): 2.75 Exited(6/27/05): 2.30 Result: -0.45
KO - Picked(5/16/05): 43.75 Exited(6/23/05): 43.34 Result: -0.41
FBR - Picked(5/19/05): 13.47 Exited(6/23/05): 14.20 Result: 0.73
HMY - Picked(5/31/05): 7.25 Exited(6/23/05): 8.25 Result: 1.00
PAL - Picked(6/2/05): 4.90 Exited(6/23/05): 4.90 Result: 0.00
AWA - Picked(6/10/05): 5.65 Exited(7/11/05): 6.36 Result: 0.71
CDE - Picked(6/10/05): 3.30 Exited(6/23/05): 3.55 Result: 0.25
BGO - Picked(6/13/05): 2.29 Exited(6/23/05): 2.40 Result: 0.11
CHINA- Picked(6/13/05): 3.30 Exited(7/18/05): 2.78 Result: -0.52
SWC - Picked(6/13/05): 7.20 Exited(6/23/05): 7.80 Result: 0.60
WYNN - Picked(6/13/05): 53.10 Exited(6/20/05): 52.80 Result: -0.30
N - Picked(6/16/05): 39.60 Exited(6/23/05): 39.60 Result: 0.00
X - Picked(6/16/05): 40.61 Exited(6/20/05): 40.61 Result: 0.00
LLY - Picked(6/17/05): 58.52 Exited(6/23/05): 58.38 Result: -0.14
AA - Picked(6/20/05): 27.70 Exited(6/23/05): 27.70 Result: 0.00
BHP - Picked(6/20/05): 26.80 Exited(7/14/05): 27.80 Result: 1.00
BW - Picked(6/20/05): 14.65 Exited(7/14/05): 15.78 Result: 1.13
LZB - Picked(6/20/05): 14.30 Exited(7/12/05): 14.70 Result: 0.40
NEM - Picked(6/20/05): 38.90 Exited(6/23/05): 39.49 Result: 0.59
TZOO - Picked(6/22/05): 33.80 Exited(6/27/05): 34.70 Result: 0.90
MU - Picked(6/23/05): 10.85 Exited(6/24/05): 10.48 Result: -0.37
KO - Picked(6/29/05): 42.86 Exited(6/30/05): 42.05 Result: -0.81
X - Picked(6/29/05): 35.25 Exited(7/11/05): 37.26 Result: 2.01
GG - Picked(6/30/05): 16.00 Exited(7/15/05): 15.39 Result: -0.61
GOLD - Picked(6/30/05): 14.36 Exited(7/1/05): 13.70 Result: -0.66
PAAS - Picked(6/30/05): 15.15 Exited(7/5/05): 14.22 Result: -0.93
KOOL - Picked(7/5/05): 4.35 Exited(7/11/05): 4.84 Result: 0.49
GTW - Picked(7/6/05): 3.35 Exited(7/11/05): 3.97 Result: 0.62
KGC - Picked(7/6/05): 6.10 Exited(7/15/05): 6.09 Result: -0.01
WYNN - Picked(7/6/05): 48.60 Exited(7/14/05): 53.60 Result: 5.00
NGAS - Picked(7/13/05): 7.15 Exited(7/15/05): 7.16 Result: 0.01
CCC - Picked(7/14/05): 9.30 Exited(7/18/05): 8.75 Result: -0.55
-------------------------------------------------------
EXITED BULLISH INDEX PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
-------------------------------------------------------
IWD - Picked(6/28/05): 67.06 Exited(6/30/05): 66.86 Result: -0.20
IWR - Picked(6/28/05): 81.95 Exited(6/30/05): 82.36 Result: 0.41
XLF - Picked(6/28/05): 29.52 Exited(6/30/05): 29.52 Result: 0.00
IWM - Picked(7/5/05): 64.72 Exited(7/11/05): 66.88 Result: 2.16
RTH - Picked(7/5/05): 97.87 Exited(7/11/05): 99.31 Result: 1.44
SMH - Picked(7/5/05): 34.28 Exited(7/11/05): 36.00 Result: 1.72
-------------------------------------------------------
EXITED BEARISH STOCK PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
-------------------------------------------------------
EXPD - Picked(6/23/05): 51.11 Exited(6/28/05): 49.50 Result: 1.61
CNF - Picked(6/24/05): 43.98 Exited(6/28/05): 43.80 Result: 0.18
ANN - Picked(6/30/05): 24.44 Exited(7/1/05): 23.93 Result: 0.51
BEN - Picked(7/14/05): 83.90 Exited(7/15/05): 81.74 Result: 2.16
JNJ - Picked(7/14/05): 64.70 Exited(7/15/05): 64.93 Result: -0.23
AET - Picked(7/15/05): 81.70 Exited(7/18/05): 81.70 Result: 0.00
-------------------------------------------------------
EXITED BEARISH INDEX PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
-------------------------------------------------------
BBH - Picked(6/22/05): 169.19 Exited(6/23/05): 167.91 Result: 1.28
XLE - Picked(6/22/05): 45.10 Exited(6/23/05): 45.48 Result: -0.38
IWM - Picked(6/23/05): 63.04 Exited(6/28/05): 62.72 Result: 0.32
SPY - Picked(6/23/05): 120.17 Exited(6/28/05): 119.43 Result: 0.74
DIA - Picked(6/30/05): 103.09 Exited(7/1/05): 103.16 Result: -0.07
SPY - Picked(6/30/05): 119.33 Exited(7/1/05): 119.52 Result: -0.19
---------------------------------------------------------------
PORTFOLIO UPDATE | by Mark Leibovit
---------------------------------------------------------------
VR Platinum Portfolio Update
Tuesday, July 19, 2005
11:00 AM EST
IBM got the party started last night and today it is in full swing. The
bulls are once again buying anything that isn't nailed down. Volume is
moderate to heavy and breadth is very strong.
Twenty one S&P components reported earnings results this morning and 14
have beaten forecasts. The street was all over IBM's report even though
they posted a lower revenue number than a year ago. We are not bringing
this up to poo poo today's strong move, we just want to bring a little
reality to today's euphoria. Hewlett-Packard announced plans to shore up
its bottom line by cutting 14,000 employees. HPQ is down .10 so far
today.
Today's action has finally allowed the Dow to clear its June 17 high of
10,656.29, but it is still the weakest of the major indices. Strength is
being seen across the board, most notably in semiconductors, small caps,
and biotechnology. We have been urging caution for the bears out there
and today you see why.
Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1866/871
NYSE Adv/Dec 2123/838
Up volume leads down volume by 4:1 on the Nasdaq and by 3:1 on the NYSE.
August Gold is down 1.10 at 419.90.
August Crude Oil is down .02 at 57.30.
Sept US Dollar Index is up .58 at 90.10.
Sept T-Bonds are up 1/8 at 115 13/16.
New Exits
----------------------------------
WY - Exited @ 66.90
MDY - Exited @ 129.40
XLE - Exited @ 45.41
DD - Exited @ 44.08
FBR - Exited @ 14.73
=================================================================
======================================
---------------------------------------------------------------
PORTFOLIO UPDATE | by Mark Leibovit
---------------------------------------------------------------
VR Platinum Portfolio Update
Tuesday, July 19, 2005
1:00 PM EST
The market is holding gains, but new intra day highs have not been made
since the first hour of trading. Volume is ahead of yesterday's pace and
breadth is positive, but slightly deteriorating.
The US Dollar is trading higher, but is well off of its early session high
of 90.25 and still below its July 8 high of 90.77. That pullback has
allowed gold to pare its losses.
Intel, Yahoo, and Motorola are among the big names reporting after the
close. The positive spin being put on IBM's numbers bodes well for these
companies. If the street is in an accomodative mood to overlook
sequential revenue declines etc., then the ground is fertile for more
spikes up on so so earnings.
We will see if the bulls can make another push higher this afternoon. It
looks like a probablity in tech, which means that tech will lead and blue
chips will follow.
Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1865/1052
NYSE Adv/Dec 2031/1107
Up volume leads down volume by 3:1 on the Nasdaq and by 3:2 on the NYSE.
August Gold is down .10 at 420.90.
August Crude Oil is down .37 at 56.95.
Sept US Dollar Index is up .35 at 89.87.
Sept T-Bonds are up 13/32 at 116 3/32.
New Cancels
----------------------------------
AWA - Cancelled
AWA - Note: Cancel trade. Target reached before long entry achieved.
=================================================================
=================================================================
Buy at market. Stop 57.08 Target 64.00.
Positive VR formed.
---------------------------------------------------------------
PORTFOLIO UPDATE | by Mark Leibovit
---------------------------------------------------------------
VR Platinum Portfolio Update
Tuesday, July 19, 2005
3:30 PM EST
The indices continue to hold their gains as they trade near their best
levels of the day. Volume is solid and breadth is strong.
We have added a new long play to our Platinum list as HHH has formed a
Positive VR out of a low volume pullback. We are still cautious with
regard to individual stocks because it is earnings season. We are also
mindful that the market is still over extended here. Covering our shorts
was the right move this morning, and we will exercise patience during this
volatile time.
Semiconductors, energy, and small caps are showing good relative strength
today. Intel, Yahoo, and Motorola among a host of others will be
reporting after the bell.
Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1990/1033
NYSE Adv/Dec 2205/1060
Up volume leads down volume by 3:1 on the Nasdaq and by 9:5 on the NYSE.
August Gold settled down .80 at 420.20.
August Crude Oil is up .13 at 57.45.
Sept US Dollar Index is up .21 at 89.73.
Sept T-Bonds settled up 11/32 at 116 1/32.
New Buy/Short
----------------------------------
HHH - Buy @ Market. Target: 64.00. Stop: 57.08
=================================================================
=================================================================
=================================================================
NEW PICKS
=================================================================
Based on either Bullish or Bearish technical signals and the
Volume Reversal™ methodology, these stock picks look
primed to make a move. No trading system is 100% accurate and
care should be taken to consider market conditions before
entering any trade. Not all trades are suitable for all
investors and each investor should consider their own risk
profile before making a decision.
Format:
Symbol - Company Name
Buy @ = this is the strategic range picked by the VR staff.
Target: = estimated destination of equity during life of play.
Stop: = recommended* stop loss considering equity volatility.
*stop losses should be placed according to your own risk
tolerance.
=================================================================
RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY
When a stock declines/rallies 1 point or more from the price at
which bought or sold short, we will raise/lower stop to cost. This
will limit the potential loss on a trade. For each additional 1
point move, a further adjustment is made.
=================================================================
------------------------------------------------------
CURRENT BULLISH STOCK PICKS
------------------------------------------------------
HIET - 1/28/05 - Long @ 1.03 Target: 1.70 Stop:
0.30
AEM - 7/6/05 - Long @ 12.57 Target: 15.00 Stop:
12.08
SWC - 7/6/05 - Long @ 7.44 Target: 11.00 Stop:
6.00
MDM - 7/13/05 - Long @ 2.55 Target: 3.50 Stop:
1.50
SYMC - 7/13/05 - Buy @ 22.50-22.80 Target: 25.25-25.50 Stop:
20.95
TRBS - 7/13/05 - Long @ 30.95 Target: 40.00 Stop:
28.00
------------------------------------------------------
CURRENT BULLISH INDEX PICKS
------------------------------------------------------
HHH - 7/19/05 - Long @ 57.93 Target: 64.00 Stop:
57.08
------------------------------------------------------
CURRENT BEARISH STOCK PICKS
------------------------------------------------------
N/A
------------------------------------------------------
CURRENT BEARISH INDEX PICKS
------------------------------------------------------
TLT - 7/6/05 - Short @ 94.63 Target: 88.00-89.00 Stop:
94.63
-------------------------------------------------------
EXITED BULLISH STOCK PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
-------------------------------------------------------
WEL - Picked(2/18/05): 1.18 Exited(7/15/05): 1.26 Result: 0.08
GLFD - Picked(5/6/05): 2.75 Exited(6/27/05): 2.30 Result: -0.45
KO - Picked(5/16/05): 43.75 Exited(6/23/05): 43.34 Result: -0.41
FBR - Picked(5/19/05): 13.47 Exited(6/23/05): 14.20 Result: 0.73
HMY - Picked(5/31/05): 7.25 Exited(6/23/05): 8.25 Result: 1.00
PAL - Picked(6/2/05): 4.90 Exited(6/23/05): 4.90 Result: 0.00
AWA - Picked(6/10/05): 5.65 Exited(7/11/05): 6.36 Result: 0.71
CDE - Picked(6/10/05): 3.30 Exited(6/23/05): 3.55 Result: 0.25
BGO - Picked(6/13/05): 2.29 Exited(6/23/05): 2.40 Result: 0.11
CHINA- Picked(6/13/05): 3.30 Exited(7/18/05): 2.78 Result: -0.52
SWC - Picked(6/13/05): 7.20 Exited(6/23/05): 7.80 Result: 0.60
WYNN - Picked(6/13/05): 53.10 Exited(6/20/05): 52.80 Result: -0.30
N - Picked(6/16/05): 39.60 Exited(6/23/05): 39.60 Result: 0.00
X - Picked(6/16/05): 40.61 Exited(6/20/05): 40.61 Result: 0.00
LLY - Picked(6/17/05): 58.52 Exited(6/23/05): 58.38 Result: -0.14
AA - Picked(6/20/05): 27.70 Exited(6/23/05): 27.70 Result: 0.00
BHP - Picked(6/20/05): 26.80 Exited(7/14/05): 27.80 Result: 1.00
BW - Picked(6/20/05): 14.65 Exited(7/14/05): 15.78 Result: 1.13
LZB - Picked(6/20/05): 14.30 Exited(7/12/05): 14.70 Result: 0.40
NEM - Picked(6/20/05): 38.90 Exited(6/23/05): 39.49 Result: 0.59
TZOO - Picked(6/22/05): 33.80 Exited(6/27/05): 34.70 Result: 0.90
MU - Picked(6/23/05): 10.85 Exited(6/24/05): 10.48 Result: -0.37
KO - Picked(6/29/05): 42.86 Exited(6/30/05): 42.05 Result: -0.81
X - Picked(6/29/05): 35.25 Exited(7/11/05): 37.26 Result: 2.01
GG - Picked(6/30/05): 16.00 Exited(7/15/05): 15.39 Result: -0.61
GOLD - Picked(6/30/05): 14.36 Exited(7/1/05): 13.70 Result: -0.66
PAAS - Picked(6/30/05): 15.15 Exited(7/5/05): 14.22 Result: -0.93
KOOL - Picked(7/5/05): 4.35 Exited(7/11/05): 4.84 Result: 0.49
GTW - Picked(7/6/05): 3.35 Exited(7/11/05): 3.97 Result: 0.62
KGC - Picked(7/6/05): 6.10 Exited(7/15/05): 6.09 Result: -0.01
WYNN - Picked(7/6/05): 48.60 Exited(7/14/05): 53.60 Result: 5.00
NGAS - Picked(7/13/05): 7.15 Exited(7/15/05): 7.16 Result: 0.01
CCC - Picked(7/14/05): 9.30 Exited(7/18/05): 8.75 Result: -0.55
-------------------------------------------------------
EXITED BULLISH INDEX PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
-------------------------------------------------------
IWD - Picked(6/28/05): 67.06 Exited(6/30/05): 66.86 Result: -0.20
IWR - Picked(6/28/05): 81.95 Exited(6/30/05): 82.36 Result: 0.41
XLF - Picked(6/28/05): 29.52 Exited(6/30/05): 29.52 Result: 0.00
IWM - Picked(7/5/05): 64.72 Exited(7/11/05): 66.88 Result: 2.16
RTH - Picked(7/5/05): 97.87 Exited(7/11/05): 99.31 Result: 1.44
SMH - Picked(7/5/05): 34.28 Exited(7/11/05): 36.00 Result: 1.72
-------------------------------------------------------
EXITED BEARISH STOCK PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
-------------------------------------------------------
EXPD - Picked(6/23/05): 51.11 Exited(6/28/05): 49.50 Result: 1.61
CNF - Picked(6/24/05): 43.98 Exited(6/28/05): 43.80 Result: 0.18
ANN - Picked(6/30/05): 24.44 Exited(7/1/05): 23.93 Result: 0.51
BEN - Picked(7/14/05): 83.90 Exited(7/15/05): 81.74 Result: 2.16
JNJ - Picked(7/14/05): 64.70 Exited(7/15/05): 64.93 Result: -0.23
WY - Picked(7/14/05): 64.83 Exited(7/19/05): 66.90 Result: -2.07
AET - Picked(7/15/05): 81.70 Exited(7/18/05): 81.70 Result: 0.00
DD - Picked(7/15/05): 44.06 Exited(7/19/05): 44.08 Result: -0.02
FBR - Picked(7/15/05): 14.80 Exited(7/19/05): 14.73 Result: 0.07
-------------------------------------------------------
EXITED BEARISH INDEX PICKS FOR THE PREVIOUS 30 DAYS
-------------------------------------------------------
BBH - Picked(6/22/05): 169.19 Exited(6/23/05): 167.91 Result: 1.28
XLE - Picked(6/22/05): 45.10 Exited(6/23/05): 45.48 Result: -0.38
IWM - Picked(6/23/05): 63.04 Exited(6/28/05): 62.72 Result: 0.32
SPY - Picked(6/23/05): 120.17 Exited(6/28/05): 119.43 Result: 0.74
DIA - Picked(6/30/05): 103.09 Exited(7/1/05): 103.16 Result: -0.07
SPY - Picked(6/30/05): 119.33 Exited(7/1/05): 119.52 Result: -0.19
MDY - Picked(7/15/05): 128.82 Exited(7/19/05): 129.40 Result: -0.58
XLE - Picked(7/15/05): 45.88 Exited(7/19/05): 45.41 Result: 0.47
Below is VRTrader.com's exclusive VR list (Volume Reversal tm).:
What is a Volume Reversal? There are several proprietary subtleties to
the Volume Reversal ™ algorithm, but essentially a Volume Reversal ™
is a change from a Rally day to a Reaction day accompanied by a
increase of volume or a change from a Reaction day to Rally day
accompanied by an increase in volume. Volume Reversals ™ coming
off intermediate lows or highs have greater significance in helping to
define those lows or highs and important pivot points in the
marketplace. The Volume Reversals ™ presented here provide you
with a unique research tool that may have trading (short-term)
significance, but it also may have 'trend changing' (intermediate)
significance as well. The sector Volume Reversals ™ show where big
money is possibly affecting an entire group of stocks. The stocks listed
under the group have posted Volume Reversals ™ along with the
group as a whole. The individual stocks listed have posted Volume
Reversals ™ on their own and are valid plays as well.
To see a visual representation of Volume Reversals ™, please go our
Current Portfolio section
(http://www.vrtrader....lays/stocks.asp)
and click on any recommended stock. Or, if you
would like to get a VR Chart for a specific symbol, please click below.
(http://www.vrtrader..../GetVRChart.asp)
Please note that not all symbols may be currently available.
The Volume Reversal ™ is a registered trademark and can only be
used or quoted after receiving express written permission from
VRTrader.com and Mark Leibovit.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
List of Volume Reversals 7/19/05 - Sectors
*** Sectors Positive Volume Reversals ***
Banking - Regional - Southeast Banks
ASO - Amsouth Bancorporation
Computer Hardware - Networking & Communication Dev
CSCO - Cisco Systems Inc
JNPR - Juniper Networks
Computer Software & Services - Application Software
ATRS - Altiris Inc
EPAY - Bottomline Technologies
MSFT - Microsoft Corp
SY - Sybase Inc
Consumer Non Durables - Packaging & Containers
BLL - Ball Corp
BMS - Bemis Co Inc
CCK - Crown Holdings Inc
OI - Owens Illinois Inc
SEE - Sealed Air Corp
Consumer Non-Durables - Paper & Paper Products
AVY - Avery Dennison Corp
GLT - Glatfelter
IP - International Paper Co
KMB - Kimberly Clark Corp
MWV - Meadwestvaco Corp
RKT - Rock-Tenn Co Cl A
SEO - Stora Enso Oyi
SSCC - Smurfit-Stone Container
TIN - Temple-Inland Inc
UPM - UPM Kymmene Corp ADS
Consumer Non-Durables - Textile - Apparel Clothing
HMX - Hartmax Corp
Diversified Services - Rental & Leasing Services
UCO - Universal Compresssion Holdings
Diversified Services - Staffing & Outsourcing Services
KFRC - KForce.Com Inc
Electronics - Printed Circuit Boards
SANM - Sanmina-Sci Corp
Electronics - Scientific & Technical Instruments
A - Agilent Technologies Inc
COHR - Coherent Inc
DNEX - Dionex Corp
FSH - Fisher Scientific International Inc
HURC - Hurco Companies Inc
MTSC - MTS Systems Corp
NEWP - Newport Corp
Electronics - Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
ACLS - Axcelis Technologies Inc
AMAT - Applied Materials Inc
ASMI - ASM International N.V.
ASML - ASML Hldgs NV NY
CYMI - Cymer Inc
NVLS - Novellus Systems Inc
PHTNE - Photon Dynamics Inc
VSEA - Varian Semiconductor
Electronics - Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits
CAMD - California Micro Devices
LAVA - Magma Design Automation Inc
MSCC - Microsemi Corp
SMTC - Semtech Corp
Energy - Independent Oil & Gas
APA - Apache Corp
BR - Burlington Resources Inc
DNR - Denbury Resources Ltd
DPTR - Delta Petroleum Corp
KMG - Kerr-McGee Corp
NXY - Nexen Inc
PPP - Pogo Producing Co
PVA - Penn Virginia Corp
REM - Remington Oil & Gas
SKE - Spinnaker Exploration Co
XTXI - Crosstex Energy
Energy - Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
BHI - Baker Hughes Inc
BJS - BJ Services Co
DRQ - Dril-Quip Inc
GRP - Grant Prideco Inc
HAL - Halliburton Co
MDR - McDermott International Inc
RES - RPC Inc
SLB - Schlumberger Ltd
Energy - Oil & Gas Pipelines
EP - El Paso Corp
Food & Beverages - Soft Drinks
COT - Cott Corporation
Health Services - Medical Instruments & Supplies
BDX - Bexton Dickinson & Co
BSX - Boston Scientific Corp
COO - Cooper Companies Inc
FOXH - Foxhollow Technologies Inc
HAE - Haemonetics Corp
ICUI - ICU Medical Inc
LUX - Luxottica Group SPA ADR
Internet - Internet Information Providers
GOOG - Google
YHOO - Yahoo! Inc
Manufacturing - Metal Fabrication
X - US Steel Corp
Metals & Mining - Steel & Iron
IPS - Ipsco Inc
MT - Mittal Steel Company
MTL - Mechel Steel Group
MTLM - Metal Management
PCP - Precision Castparts Corp
PKX - Posco
TONS - Noveamerican Steel Inc
ZEUS - Olympic Steel Inc
Telecommunications - Wireless Communications
AIRN - Airspan Networks Inc
AMX - America Movil
CHT - Chunghwa Telecom
MBT - Mobile Telesys Ojsc ADS
Transportation - Air Services - Other
OLG - Offshore Logistics Inc
Utilities - Gas Utilities
KMI - Kinder Morgan Inc
STR - Questar Inc
Wholesale - Computers Wholesale
CDWC - CDW Corp
TECD - Tech Data Corp
Wholesale - Industrial Equipment Wholesale
NOV - National Oilwell Varco Inc
*** Sectors Negative Volume Reversals ***
Drugs - Drug Manufacturers - Other
AGIX - Atherogenics Inc
FRX - Forest Laboratories Inc
Food & Beverage - Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
STZ - Constellation Brands Inc
---------------------------------------------------------------
PORTFOLIO UPDATE | by Mark Leibovit
---------------------------------------------------------------
VR Platinum Portfolio Update
Tuesday, July 19, 2005
Post-Market
=================================================================
---------------------------------------------------------------
CLOSING COMMENTARY | by Mark Leibovit
---------------------------------------------------------------
Closing Comments
Tuesday, July 19, 2005
Closing Comments
Today was a complete reversal of yesterday as IBM's earnings report last
night got the party started and today everyone was invited. Volume
increased over Monday and breadth was positive.
In today's action, semiconductors and energy stocks were the big winners
as our Platinum subscribers will see on our proprietary Sector Volume
Reversal list. The bulls were in control all day long as breadth stayed
strong from beginning to end. The Nasdaq is now only 18 points from its
January 3 high and the S&P 500 is trading right at its March high. The
fact that the market is overextended and the S&P is right at its previous
high says that there may not be enough gas left in the tank to break
decisively through. A healthy pullback is necessary for the indices to
regroup and make a charge to new highs. If we see the complexion of this
market change during the pulback we will adjust our outlook. For now the
trend is definitely up. One troubling aspect that we have mentioned
previously is the lack of bearishness in this market. Yes it may be
climbing the proverbial 'Wall of Worry', but the street has been pounding
the table for higher earnings here and soaking up any bit of positive news
as an excuse to drive stocks higher.
During our intra-day updates we told our Platinum subscribers that
patience was warranted here due to the overextended nature of the market
and also the fact that this is earnings season. Tonight in after hours we
see why. Yahoo beat earnings expectations, but fell short in the revenue
area, so its shares tumbled 9% in after hours trading. Intel's profit
jumped 16% and its revenue rose 15% to $9.23 billion. INTC is down 3.5%
in after hours. Motorola earned $933 million, or 37 cents a share,
compared with a net loss of $203 million, or 8 cents, a year earlier.
Sales climbed 17% to $8.83 billion. Motorola is down 3.83% in after hours
trading. It seems that the positive spin machine that worked so well for
IBM last night is broken today. Earnings expectations may have been set
too high with all of the recent euphoria in the market. S&P and Nasdaq
futures are sharply lower.
The dollar made another charge higher, but closed well off of its
intra-day high of 90.25. Gold futures closed slightly lower in quiet
trading. Our two precious metals plays still on the board had good days.
Tomorrow we will see if the bulls can work their magic once again and jump
in to support prices or even push them higher. From the looks of the
futures right now, they have their work cut out for them.
Good Night.
About Mark Lebovit
