2 replies to this topic

[mss]

uncleharley raised the question if I had any concerns about a rounding top at this time. Thoughts and comments are on the chart.



mss

[PorkLoin]

Mss, the rally of the last four months doesn't look impressive to me -- really just seems like an upwards/sideways correction prior to more decline. Of course, it doesn't have to even go down as far as this year's low, either.

And by the same token the whole move "down" plus sideways of the last year and a half isn't all that wicked, either. From that peak in early 2004 we might be making a "triple zig-zag, with two already completed and one to come.

The market can do what it wants, naturally, but I think you're right about a (relatively) shallow correction, though I wouldn't doubt we bust that lower trend line. Maybe gold bullion is due for a good shake-out. Let's say it goes to $375. Not even a 13% decline.

Mining stocks would probably have a higher percentage decline. Let's say 25%. Take us down to around 3.5 on your chart. Good support in dat area. Bull market still alive for long-term.

Just speculating...

Best,

Doug

[johngeorge]

mss

Gold seasonal chart here: http://www.321gold.c...sonal_gold.html

If the fed continues raising rates that would indicate to me a rising dollar and a limit to gold's upside.