3 replies to this topic

[hiker]

Symbol Pct from Yr High Last Change Day's Range Volume Avg Vol 52-wk Range Short Ratio
OATS -2.51% 18.26 +0.01 +0.05% 18.03 - 18.73 741,804 596,431 6.80 - 18.73 6.80
UNFI -3.08% 34.89 +0.43 +1.25% 33.91 - 35.10 609,368 647,241 24.60 - 36.00 8.20
WFMI -20.50% 63.52 -0.28 -0.44% 63.21 - 64.29 1,202,537 2,490,690 48.00 - 79.90 2.60

Distributor of natural foods, UNFI, is approaching the $36.00 multi-year high:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?UNFI
rising lows control the weekly chart pattern since 2000

profile -

United Natural Foods, Inc. distributes natural and organic foods, and related products in the United States. It offers grocery and general merchandise, produce, perishables and frozen foods, nutritional supplements, bulk and food service products, and personal care items to natural products retailers, supernatural chains, supermarket chains, conventional supermarkets, mass market outlets, and gourmet stores. In addition, its subsidiary, Hershey Import Company, Inc., specializes in the international importing, roasting, and packaging of nuts, seeds, dried fruits, and snack items. The company distributes its products through food service and buying clubs. As of July 31, 2005, it owned and operated 12 natural products retail stores in Florida. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Dayville, Connecticut.

http://www.unfi.com/

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WFMI resistance zone has narrowed to $64-64.55...selling rallies continues to be in play for this name while the other name in the sector is likely catching attention of longs:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?oats

5% gain last week...rising lows controlling the weekly chart pattern for now. Note the ADX which is now at 55.47.


let's see how the guide below to using the ADX works for trading OATS by watching what happens to future price behavior now that the ADX is above 50 (one clear cut example from another sector is that CCJ declined from its all-time high very soon after it touched the ADX 50 level):

The ADX Indicator

Ever have trouble determining if a stock is trending or just moving sideways? If you answered, "Yes," then the ADX is for you! The Average Directional Index (a.k.a. ADX) was developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr. to evaluate the strength of a stock's trend. It is an oscillator that fluctuates between a scale of 0 and 100, although it rarely ever gets above 70. A low reading below 20, indicates a weak trend (or sideways action) and a high reading above 20, indicates a strong trend. Understand that the ADX line itself does not actual give any trading signals; however it does help in analyzing price activity. Most charting packages or websites offer the ADX as an indicator. It is often accompanied by a DMI + and a DMI - reading. The DMI (Direction Movement Indicator) simply helps to determine if the trend is sloping up or down by showing a green line above or below a red line. The ADX line itself does not determine up or down trends...it simply determines trend strength.

A few points in applying the ADX indicator:

* Remember the ADX itself does not give signals...it simply determines the strength of the current trend. An up-sloping ADX line means the trend is strong. A down-sloping ADX line indicates a weakening trend or sideways action.
* Technical analysis is an art, not an exact science. With that said, do not get hung up about the 20 level. Pay closer attention to the slope of the ADX line itself to indicate a strong or weak trend.
* As with all technical indicators, it is best to combine them with other tools. When the ADX suggests a non-trending stock, consider using indicators like Stochastics or RSI for buy and sell signals. If the ADX suggests a strong trend, consider using moving averages, support & resistance, and trendlines for signals.
* Take caution if the ADX line rises above the 50 level. It usually indicates the trend is ridiculously strong and the stock price will most likely correct soon.[/u]

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fyi - March 8 - OATS, YUM, CHUX, CAKE at Bear, Stearns & Co. 12th Annual Retail, Restaurants & Consumer Conference (OATS)


2/17 -
OATS Wild Oats Mkts tgt upped to $20 from $15 at RBC following Q4 results

2/17 - Keybanc raises their tgt on Wild Oats (OATS $17.21) to $20 from $17 following earnings, based on valuation.

Edited by hiker, 04 March 2006 - 09:35 PM.

[hiker]

more WFMI comments -

WFMI has been testing the 50-week ema for 4 consecutive weeks...closing Friday slightly above the 50-week ema of $63.19....the 50-week ema was tested in the summers of '04 and '03...will it eventually rally from this ema has it has previously?

As previously stated, the immediate support zone which has held so far is $60-64. This may be considered consolidation action in recent weeks, but direction can still go either way depending on whether this support zone holds and the 50-week ema holds....someone at another board pointed out that institutions may be increasingly wary of WFMI if the 50-week ema fails to hold.

the WFMI resistance zone has narrowed to $64-64.55...selling rallies continues to be in play for this name while the other names in the sector are likely catching the attention of longs.

posted in another thread on 2/11 -

Note the rising bottoms trendline break on the 5-year weekly chart...first break below the rising price channel during the period. Is this a change of trend, or will price move back up inside the weekly price channel?

Friday's low is almost exactly the value of the 50 week ema, which is where the summer '04 low bounced.

Intraday action on much of Friday was slightly above or below the 200 day ema, and daily resistance appears to be in the $66 area.

Does a trader take an early shot at a swing long on any retest of the 50 week ema, or give the new chart pattern adequate time to develop? Do swing shorts remain short here? The new downtrend line on the daily chart remains intact.

How much reliance should be made on the fact daily and weekly RSI has bounced fairly quickly in the past when reaching these RSI lows? Price remained within the rising price channel at the time of those bounces, which is not the case this time.

Edited by hiker, 04 March 2006 - 11:09 PM.

[hiker]

daily chart, remains below impt ema's... $60 -64 support zone has held so far weekly chart - the weekly 50 ema is important as it continues to hold...buy breaks of the weekly 50 ema may be an opportunity for those thinking the overall market will rally following the current action in the indicies. note the historical bounce from the RSI lows: today's low of 62.82 vs the 50 week ema of 63.19 vs. swing low of 61.38

Edited by hiker, 08 March 2006 - 12:26 PM.

[hiker]

12:45 this news now being featured on CNBC

11:00 WFMI Whole Foods sinks to session low following news WMT to carry 400 organic food items (this news item was out Monday, tho' briefing.com is publishing it today)

http://news.yahoo.co...mmit_walmart_dc

61.38 is the recent swing low, 50-week ema is 63.20 -

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?wfmi

note support zone remains 60-64 until broken