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Denver Conference summary


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#1 Tor

Tor

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Posted 28 September 2006 - 10:18 AM

Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC, TSX: K; US$12.36; Outperform, Above Average Risk) • Kinross reiterated guidance of 1.4 million ounces at costs of between $305 to $315/oz, and that it expects the strong Q2/06 operating and financial performance to continue in H2/06. • Gold production over the next 3 years is expected to grow from 1.4 to 1.8-1.9 million ounces as new low cost production from Paracatu (175,000 at $327 /oz growing to 550,000 oz a year at $235 /oz) and Buckhorn (production by end of Q2/07 at close to 200,000 oz at $260/oz) is brought on stream. • The company stated that it would like to own the other half of La Coipa and Timmins JV (although we suspect that it is less interested in the remaining 68% stake in Musselwhite), however in a high and volatile gold price environment it has been a challenge to determine a fair price. Goldcorp (NYSE: GG; TSX: G; US$23.87; Sector Perform, Average Risk) • We Ain't Done Nothing Wrong - Management re-affirmed its position that the Plan of Arrangement to acquire Glamis Gold follows all regulatory requirements and does not contravene any aspects of the Canadian Business Act. Coupled with little to no opposition being forwarded, Goldcorp's Board of Directors does not plan to hold a shareholder vote on the Glamis merger, and will "vigorously defend" any action taken by McEwen Capital. • Newco Has Favorable Comps - Management delivered its view that the combination of Goldcorp and Glamis creates an attractive Tier I producer with above average growth prospects, lower political risk (70% of gold reserves in NAFTA countries), as well as the lowest cost Tier I producer. • Growth Project Update - Goldcorp's Los Filos/Bermejal gold-silver mine in Mexico is on track for construction completion later this year. Amapari in Brazil is now seeing operating improvements in throughput and recovery rates (but remains below design forecasts). The initial resource estimate for the Eleonore gold project in Quebec is expected in Q1/07, and the feasibility study for Glamis' Cerro Blanco gold project in Guatemala will likely take until H2/07. Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM; US$43.14; Sector Perform, Above Average Risk) • Newmont's revised guidance for equity gold sales in 2006 of 5.6 to 5.8 million oz at cash costs of $290 to $310 is inline with prior guidance. However, in 2007 they guided to gold sales of 5.2 to 5.6 million oz at cash costs of $350 to $385/oz versus our forecast of 6.3 million ounces at $314/oz. • This lower guidance is primarily the result of lost sales from the expropriated Zarafshan mine and reduced output from Yanacocha. Development projects in Nevada and Australia are expected to improve the production and cost profile, but not until 2008/09. • The Akyem development project in Ghana has been deferred, pending permitting completion and resolution of the power shortage issue. The company is also looking at the impact on costs with additional capital spent on diesel-generated power. • Management stated that contrary to many industry pundit commentaries, NEM has been successful replacing its gold reserves over the past 4 years, and expects to be successful increasing gold reserves in 2006. Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI; US$18.64; Underperform, Above Average Risk) • Pretty dull presentation with focus on current projects and touching on new projects at the end. • Cerro Corona' s capex has been revised up 20% from US$270m to US$330m, which was the negative blot on the story. • On the exploration side, the company focused on the following: 1. The Essakane project (JV with Orezone) - most advanced and will move to feasibility by year-end. 2. Kisenge - in the DRC - getting excited about the prospects. 3. The only other project singled out from 18 was the Tireo JV with Goldquest in the Dominican Republic. • Short term, the key issue with this stock is the overhang of stock, expected from Harmony, Barrick Gold and JCI (over US$1,000m worth of stock). In addition, many clients feel that they may come to the market soon to offset some of the US$1,200m offshore debt. • The stock is on a very high relative rating and we prefer HMY and AU in the short term. Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW; TSX: SLW; US$9.59; Sector Perform, Average Risk) • Inside Track For Penasquito Silver - Company announced that it has secured an exclusive 180-day period following the successful merger of Goldcorp and Glamis to negotiate a silver production stream purchase for a portion of the planned silver output from the Penasquito gold-silver-zinc-lead deposit in Mexico. Penasquito currently hosts 575 million ounces of silver reserves, and a further 300 million ounces of silver in resources.
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