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Dr. Joe Duarte's Market I.Q. 5/7//7


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#1 TTHQ Staff

TTHQ Staff

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Posted 07 May 2007 - 08:00 AM

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The Wilderhill Clean Energy Index looks to have run into resistance at 210, but could bestarting to move higher along with the rest of the energy complex.


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Crude oil prices have pulled back after struggling to rise above the $65 area.


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The Philadelphia Oil Service Index (OSX) is testing the 240 area, and its all time highs.


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The Amex Oil Index (XOI) is also testing its all time highs.


Technical Summary:


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AD Line Makes New High

Just as we thought the market was shaky, the NYSE advance decline line made a new high,along with the Dow Industrials, and the S & P 500, possibly giving the rally some newlife.

Still, the market will have to deal with the fact that start of the month institutionalmoney has gone away, as it usually dries up after the first trading week of the month.

So now the market will have to trade on news, as well as economic reports, takeovers, andfewer earnings reports.

It is still a good time to look at individual stocks and to start cutting losses on anylaggards, while taking profits in any big winners, and tightening stops on all positions,while looking at new areas in which to start adding stocks.

For now, the up trend remains intact, but it is getting more and more sluggish with eachunconfirmed new high in the Dow.

From a longer term stand point, based on historical trends, this should be a positive yearfor stocks, given the fact that it's the third year of the Presidential Cycle, which callsfor rallies in the third and fourth years of a presidency.

Our long term forecast remains upbeat, unless the major indexes fall convincingly belowtheir 200 day moving averages.

What To Do Now

Selectivity remains the key to success. Look for strength, either on a continued basis, orin turn around areas, such as the semiconductors.

Visit all our individual sections, both our ETF and individual stock picks daily for newideas, and changes to open positions.

Be very methodical about monitoring portfolios, adhering to trading rules, and ratchetingup sell stops is clearly still here.

Second guessing decisions, and hoping that things will turn out o.k. in the long haul, isthe recipe for disaster at a time like this in the market.

Check all our sections daily. See tech, biotech, Fallen Angels, and timing systems forthe latest adjustments. Our ETF trading systems for energy, Spyders, Small Caps, andtechnology have also been updated.


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Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

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Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

Media stocks have been out of the limelight lately, with Time Warner, News Corp., andothers barely keeping up with the market, despite decent cash flow and sales.

The problem is the fragmentation of the enterntainment and media world, where personalizeddelivery, online, through television, and print is becoming a customized situation, whichmakes it difficult to sell advertising.

So, when something like Spiderman comes along, which gets Sony's costs back, and startsdelivering a profit immediately, you have to take notice.

The big question, though, is whether Spiderman can last all summer long, with HarryPotter, Pirates of the Caribbean, and a dozen other sequels due out.

For Spiderman, the answer might be in the video game, as well as in the usual othermerchandise that goes along with the movie.

For Sony's stock, which is up over 20% since October 2006, the buzz about Spiderman mightalready have been built into the stock. Posted Image
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Small stocks are just keeping up with the market.



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