No replies to this topic

[TTHQ Staff]

Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for Thursday 05/10/07
www.toddmarketforecast.com
Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW - 148 on 1850 net declines
NASDAQ COMP. - 43 on 1700 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish


Market Commentary

Bad news finally got to an overbought stock market. It was feared that a worse than expected trade deficit would lower first quarter GDP to under 1%. Also import prices were higher and same store sales were worse than expected. The bears had the upper hand from the opening and the bulls never put up a fight.

The fact that this drop has occurred in the month of May is one reason to go on an alert, but not a short term sell signal, at least not yet.

Bear in mind that the composite gauge, that we report every night on this hotline came in at a very high 18. If the uptrend is still in place, this type of reading will generally give us a rebound over the next couple of sessions. If this doesn’t happen, we will have to look carefully at our short term posture which we are still designating as bullish.

Gold broke the level of May 2nd, both on an intraday and closing basis. This puts us back on a sell signal. It’s now oversold so we may well bounce on Friday, but the tape action has become poor. We have been following gold for years and have generally done fairly well, but we sure laid an egg on this call.



NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:

The trade deficit came in at $63.9 Billion, more than the expected $60 Billion. Import prices rose 1.3%, more than the consensus 0.8%. Initial claims were 297,000 less than the expected 315,000. On Friday, we get retail sales and the dreaded PPI or producer price index.


BOTTOM LINE:

Our S&P and NASDAQ intermediate term systems are on a buy signal. Mutual fund investors should be in a 100% invested position in the fund of their choice.

Short term ETF traders were stopped out of the gold ETF, symbol GLD at 66.10 for a loss of 2.07.



OTHER MARKETS

We are on a buy for bonds as of April 16.

We are moving to a buy for the dollar and a sell for the Euro as of today May 10.

We are moving back to a sell for gold as of today May 10.

We are on a sell signal for crude as of April 19.

We are bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.




STEPHEN TODD: A SHORT BIOGRAPHY

Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a monthly stock market newsletter with an included nightly hotline.

Steve has published articles on the stock market in the following publications: Barron’s, Stock Market Magazine, Futures Magazine, The National Educator, and others.

His stock market commentary is heard on the following stations: CNBC, Bloomberg, CNNfn, Associated Press Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW in Vancouver, British Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in Toronto, Ontario.

RANKED # 1 BY TIMER DIGEST

Timer Digest of Greenwich, CT monitors and ranks over 100 of the nation’s best known advisory services. If you have heard of an advisor, it is likely that he or she is monitored and ranked by Timer Digest.

Once per year, in January, Timer Digest editor Jim Schmidt gives the rankings for all services monitored for multi year time frames. The latest survey has us ranked # 1 for the past ten years.


TODD MARKET FORECAST
P.O. Box 4131
Crestline, CA 92325-4131
www.toddmarketforecast.com
e mail – toddmarketforecast@charter.net
phone 909 338 - 8354