Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Wilderhill Clean Energy Index has been moving higher lately, and has risen ablve the210 area, after finding support near 200. This sector has been improving of late.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Crude oil prices are starting to move higher with $70 now becoming support.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Philadelphia Oil Service Index (OSX) is trying to move higher. The index made a newhigh on 6-22, and is trying to get back toward the key area.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
The Amex Oil Index (XOI) has been increasingly volatile, and is not acting as well as theoil service sector, although its up trend remains intact.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Trying To Hold It Together
Visit our S & P timing page for seasonality trading instructions. The seasonalitytrading model is automated and is based only on the calendar, not on the prevailing markettrend.
Market breatdh is trying to stabilize after taking a few hits over the last few days. ButFriday was another disappointing day, as stocks gave back decent gains and closed lower.
Some areas of the market are acting better than others. One example is the semiconductorarea, which continues to hold up, and could get a boost as chip sales showed a modestincrease in the last quarter.
The S & P 500, once again, remained above 1500 but below its 50 day moving average,confusing the overall market's picture.
Nasdaq is starting to show some relative strength, as it closed last week above its 50 daymoving average.
The rally is still a bit tired, and there are lots of external reasons, for morevolatility, although for now, the trend toward higher prices in the first few days of anew month, could keep prices higher.
Remember, if this break below the key 50 day line sticks, the S & P has the potentialfor a 6% decline before it hits the support of the 200 day moving average, giving usplenty of opportunity to make a decent short term profit on the short selling side of theequation.
Our large cap (SPY) and small cap (IWM, IJR) ETF timing models are still open short sales.See the ETF timing section for details.
Our S & P 500 seasonality trading model is now operational.
Our Fallen Angels has a good crop of short sales, as well as a good number of longpositions, and value stocks. And our tech timing ETF section also has some short sales.
For now, there is a place to be short, and a place to be long. Thus, we continue to manageeach position on an individual basis by adjusting our sell stops according to theirspecific moves in this market.
A successful trading program requires two things, risk management, and a sustainabletrend.
A sustainable trend, up or down, allows for the steady adjustment of risk, meaning thatsell stops, or buy stops if you're selling short, can be adjusted over time, giving theopportunity to reach a profit.
Volatile markets increase the chances of being stopped out prematurely, thus, making itdifficult to make money.
In these types of markets, there is a need to be patient. And patience usually givestraders the feeling that they are missing opportunities to make money. When that happens,inexperience leads to over trading, which tends to increase the opportunity of losingmoney.
In other words, for now, the best strategy is to stick with what's working, and give thismarket time to work out its own kinks, without taking too much of our money away.
Our Fallen Angels has a good crop of short sales, as well as a good number of longpositions, and value stocks. And our tech timing ETF section also has some short sales.
For now, there is a place to be short, and a place to be long. Thus, we continue to manageeach position on an individual basis by adjusting our sell stops according to theirspecific moves in this market.
A successful trading program requires two things, risk management, and a sustainabletrend.
A sustainable trend, up or down, allows for the steady adjustment of risk, meaning thatsell stops, or buy stops if you're selling short, can be adjusted over time, giving theopportunity to reach a profit.
Volatile markets increase the chances of being stopped out prematurely, thus, making itdifficult to make money.
In these types of markets, there is a need to be patient. And patience usually givestraders the feeling that they are missing opportunities to make money. When that happens,inexperience leads to over trading, which tends to increase the opportunity of losingmoney.
In other words, for now, the best strategy is to stick with what's working, and give thismarket time to work out its own kinks, without taking too much of our money away.
Think of alternatives to stocks, such as bonds and the dollar, which are still offering aunique trading opportunity, shorting bonds, and being long the dollar.
Otherwise, be patient. From a longer term stand point, based on historical trends, thisshould be a positive year for stocks, given the fact that it's the third year of thePresidential Cycle, which calls for rallies in the third and fourth years of a presidency.
Our long term forecast remains upbeat, unless the major indexes fall convincingly belowtheir 200 day moving averages.
What To Do Now
Keep a lid on emotion, and stick to your trading rules. Aggressive traders should betrolling for a few short sales, while keeping an eye on stocks that are worth owning onthe long side.
Consider taking some profits where it makes sense, and consider tightening stops whereappropriate. Use our individual sections for guidance.
Selectivity remains the key to success. Look for strength, either on a continued basis, orin turn around areas, such as the semiconductors.
Visit all our individual sections, both our ETF and individual stock picks daily for newideas, and changes to open positions.
Be very methodical about monitoring portfolios, adhering to trading rules, and ratchetingup sell stops is clearly still here.
Second guessing decisions, and hoping that things will turn out o.k. in the long haul, isthe recipe for disaster at a time like this in the market.
Check all our sections daily. See tech, biotech, Fallen Angels, and timing systems forthe latest adjustments. Our ETF trading systems for energy, Spyders, Small Caps, andtechnology have also been updated.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Technical analyts refer to tight trading when a stock trades in a very small price range.The pattern usually means that buyers and sellers are reaching a point at which one sideor another will eventually win out, and prices will move.
The QQQQ has reached such a point, with the 48 area seeming to be the key price area, andchart point.
In fact, the stockhas been moving between 46 and 48 since May, with volume rising andfalling as the stock reached either the top or the bottom of the range.
Over the last few days, the range has been tightening, and seems to be gathering strenght,much as a muscle tightens just before uncoiling.
The key, of course, is which way prices break. A move above 48, though, would be a verybullish development, and a reason to add to positions on strength.
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Small stocks are now market performers.
