1. price/points follows the swift directional move required to preserve the trend, or
2. price/points crosses through a significant trend reversal barrier.
In the first chart below, the trend barrier is the 61.8% Fib retracement of the $VIX uptrend expansion. The trend expansion I'm referring to is its positive 20ma slope, beginning from its roll-under point to its maximum velocity (the point of its most positive slope). Those two points are marked with green arrows.
("Par Trend Chart" refresher: intersection of price with the center and solid blue line renders a perfectly flat 20ma, a neutral 20-day trend if you will. The dashed envelope bands above and below that are + and - Fib retracements from that neutral 20-day trend to the current trend's maximum velocity seen to date).
Here's how things stand for tomorrow.
$VIX closed today between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci envelope lines of the 20ma uptrend's current velocity range. Tomorrow, $VIX needs to close all the way above 28.66 just to avoid having the 61.8% retracement barrier overcome. On the other hand, a $VIX reading of 23.21 flatlines the 20ma. Looking at the angle of ascent on the 20ma, you probably wouldn't have sensed that the 20ma rollover is only 0.76 points below today's close. But dropping the $VIX by 0.76 points tomorrow also puts it at today's swing low, not to mention all of the horizontal support built up there.
I sure don't expect tomorrow to be dull.
The $SPX:$VIX has a similar situation, only inverted. It needs to close all the way down below 54.45 just to avoid a breach of its 61.8% retracement barrier for downtrend trend velocity range. And $VIX 64.99 (again, not very far away from today's closing level) would flatline the 20ma.
Tomorrow's $SPX 61.8% trend retracement sits at 1460.38 (9.34 points below today's close). I expect the bulls and bears to do some battle there, unless there's a gap and hold overnight to keep 1460 out of the bear's reach.
