Guardian Checklist for Thursday 1/03/08
Published Wednesday 1/02/08
by Mark S. Young , President of Equity Guardian Group, LLC.
Investment Management & Research
***************************************
Intermediate-term Outlook (weeks):
Seasonal Cycle: Positive.
Coppock Breadth Indicator: Sell. The CBI was down 0.1 to 232.0, 0.8 beneath the exponential.
Weekly MACD: Negative.
Bull/Bear Market Indicator: Bull. Under attack.
Conclusion: We are still in a Cyclical Bull Market, but it's under attack. The Seasonal Cycle is positive. The Weekly MACD is negative and a bit oversold.
Short/Intermediate-Term
NYSE Cumulative A/D Volume: Negative.
ITBM: Positive.
Summation: Sell. Unconfirmed.
KTT*: Neutral. Pending Buy.
CCI Daily: Buy.
10-day ARMS: Neutral.
MACD Daily: Sell. A fresh sell is a great fade.
21-day MA: Negative.
Conclusion: Shorts are still favored, but breadth is holding so well that long probes are indicated.
Short-term
Stochastic Turn Spotter: Pending Buy.
VIX 30': Buy.
MACD 60': Negative.
Moving Averages: Negative. Watch the 1472-1474 area.
Conclusion: Shorts are favored but, use serious care. The VIX buy may be a tell.
*******************************
Today, (1/2/08) we had an ugly looking decline that did no damage.
In fact, the decline today looked engineered. Here's what we like about it:
1) Breadth was barely negative despite taking the market down over 1%.
2) The only good volume that came in, came in positive at the close.
3) The price action triggered a MACD Sell--87% chance of higher prices soon.
4) The "bad" news gives the Fed more room to cut, and they will.
The trend indicators are mushy, but the sentiment and the breadth suggest that we ought not be too Bearish here at all.
Watch for a turn.
KTT traders have a pending long.
*****************
Not everyone likes a short-term trading model, and would like something that hangs onto bigger moves and reflects a less frenetic trading pace. If you want to know how I would trade based upon the big picture and the sentiment, the following tracking portfolio is it.
Ideal ETF Portfolio (tracking portfolio):
50% long DIA at 127.54.
50% Money Market
Sold the 25% long TWM's from 66.22 at 69.88 or better. We may shift back to the SPY or DIA tomorrow.
We are long for the purposes of Timer Digest.
*******************************************************
Mutual Fund Models Position Summary
1) STAMP 75% Money Market.
25% 2X Dow long fund
2) Rydex Naz Trader 75% Money Market.
25% Venture
****************************************************
1)*Real Money* Seasonal Trading Asset Management Program (All weightings are approximate)
75% Money Market.
25% 2X Dow long fund
I'll try to Buy another 25% if I like the action tomorrow.
This is a very conservative approach (~1/3 the risk of the market), using both long and short funds as well as the occasional favored sector/stock idea. All performance is net of fees, commissions, and interest. Your results may vary, especially if we trade for our accounts intra-day, and standard disclaimers apply. We use discretion. For further information, call us at 1-800-769-6980.
2) Rydex Naz Trading Model
Weekly Trend: Negative.
Rydex Asset Trigger: Neutral.
MACD Risk Reducer: Negative.
CCI Entry Improver: Buy.
NDX Stochastic: Pending Buy.
100% Money Market.
0% Venture.
We are flat, looking for a long setup.
QQQQ Trading model: Covered shorts from 51.90 and 52.61 at 51.35.
******************************************************
Trading is not only risky, but trading different vehicles also entails unique risks. Traders can lose a significant amount of money trading options, and more in futures. Mutual funds have certain trading limitations that must be understood before you undertake any market timing approach. Traders should discuss the forgoing issues with their broker before taking any trades. We aren't your advisor unless you have a signed contract with us. You are responsible for your own trading decisions and results. Take your time and do your homework. Past performance is no indication of future returns.
******************************
See our Web site for more
www.EquityGuardianGroup.com
Mark Young
President
Equity Guardian Group, LLC.
859-393-3335
