The VRTrader.com VR Silver Newsletter - Monday 2/11/2008
"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright 鲰08, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.
LEIBOVIT FILES | by Mark Leibovit
Monday, February 11, 2008
Have We Retested The Lows?
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Economic Data and other events scheduled for February 11-12
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Monday, February 11:
4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET
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Tuesday, February 12:
ICSC-UBS Store Sales
7:45 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
FYI:
Redbook monitors, analyzes and explains trends in retail sales and the consumer economy. This independent trend-watcher is one of the oldest, having been in business for over 42 years. The Johnson Redbook Index, its weekly proprietary retail sales index, has become one of the most watched private indicators on Wall Street.
4-Week Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
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The 'retesting' of the January lows continued on Friday as equity markets started to creep once again into oversold territory. It remains to be seen whether a decline to 12,103.37 intra-day Friday was close enough to the January 22 low of 11,634.82 to be considered a retest. With option expiratio n coming up this Friday followed by a long President's Day holiday weekend and with 'Weird Wally Wednesday' behind us, we could very well see another rally try this week. We are a bit oversold here with indexes down four days in a row so let's see if the bulls can muster positive breadth and volume today, Monday, to help trigger a rally.
The Nasdaq 100 ran up to both price and declining moving average resistance on the hourly charts near 1780 and failed twice to get through. However, it did close not far from there at the end of the day. The S&P 500 trailed a bit, but is also below its declining moving average and price resistance up near the 1345-50 zone on the hourly chart. So we'll see if they can punch through that on Monday, or whether they'll continue lower. Right now the trend remains lower, but is attempting to base out in this range.
I remain on my TIMER DIGEST 'Sell' signal, but keeping any eye on short-term indicators with regard to OUR trading positions. Downside risk is toward 10,600 in the Dow Industrials if the January 22 lows fail to hold. They may hold here, but there is no assurance they will hold in coming months.
I read there was a convention last week in Las Vegas of the American Securitization Forum. The mood there was simply dismal. The credit markets have gone from bad to worse. There's almost no trading being done in the $2 trillion Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) markets. Perfectly good bank loans are trading at discounts of between 10-20% to par, in addition to much higher and wider spreads. There are a lot of opportunities for intrepid investors who can distinguish solid value, as funds, banks, and pensions are having to unload loans without regard to value. It is a buyer's market.
In other markets, the US Dollar Index pulled back a bit, but still well off its lows, yet precious metals were very strong with Silver sitting at the current bull market high and Platinum soaring into the stratosphere. Palladium, a play on the strength of Platinum, has also been upticking nicely. Slight weakness in the US Dollar Index caused a relatively disportionate rally in Crude Oil as well. The US Dollar Index has showed strength because the ECB has finally admitted that a rate cut might be necessary and the Bank of England has already cut rates. Bernanke must maintain vigilance that inflation does not accelerate as he eases policy. If inflation flares, he would have no choice but to end the easing cycle. So far, so good, but keep your eyes on commodity prices.
In economic news, there were 356,000 initial jobless claims for the week ended Feb. 2 vs. consensus of 342,000.
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Canadian, TSE and TSE Venture Commentary for our Canadian Clients updated for Monday, February 11:
TSE:
A Positive Volume Reversal ™ was formed on Friday following a 600 point decline off last Monday's highs of 13,351.72. If we can hold Thursday's low of 12,747.81, maybe we can get something going here on the upside Keep in mind oil and metals were strong Friday which had much to do with the rally try. Last week's low may have been a retest of the 12,011.68 low of January 22. Recall that the halfway retracement presents important resistance. That level is calculated having declined 2600 points from the big high at 14,646.82 on July 20 and measuring a 50% retracement iff the January 22 low of 12,011. The next level is 13,640 - the .618 'fibonacci' retracement level. Support is now at 12,747.81, 12,600, 12,200 and 12,000. Resistance is now 13,351, 13,415, 13,680, 13,772, 13,840 and 14,050 - above that the big highs at 14,600+. Bottom line: It appears we're headed south.
TSE Venture:
A Positive Volume Reversal ™ was formed Friday, so Thursday's low of 2505.66 presents important short-term support. Overall th 2580 level that we touched a week ago is resistance, but not that far away! A break of 2340 opens up 2250 and possibly 1800 ahead. Resistance is at 2850 followed by the fibonacci number of 2975. The bear case rests on the inabiity of this index to breakout above the May 2007 high (3372.00).
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TIMER DIGEST has named Mark Leibovit of VRTrader.com 'TIMER OF THE YEAR' for 2006 and was named the #2 Timer for 2007. Currently, #4 for 2008. Also, for 2007, he was name the #4 Gold Timer for 2007. As you know, Mark was named the #1 Intermediate Market Timer (stock market) for the 10 year period ending in 2006!
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Ux U3O8 Prices*
February 4, 2008
Spot: $75.00 /lb. down 3.00. Bull market high in the cash market is $136.00.
The June Uranium Futures are trading at $80.00.
Big low was $58.00 posted intra-day on August 16. The big high from June 13 is 154.95. Confirmation of a bottom should be evident when the uranium shares begin to move higher. I would use present levels as a long term buying opportunity.
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http://www.vrtrader.com/vr_forecaster/index.asp
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VR TRADER.COM WATCHLISTS:
Please note: The VR Watchlist is currently now only available via the VRTrader.com website accessed via your assigned username and password. Please email mark@vrsurvey.com if you misplaced that information.
I've extended posting this information on a complimentary basis to Silver subscribers for the time being. There is no technical service on the planet that posts Positive and Negative VR! Why? Because they are proprietary to VRTrader.com! And, Platinum subscribers can pull up VR Charts on just about any stock from the home page of my website.
A Volume Reversal ™ is change from a Rally day to a Reaction day accompanied by an increase of volume or a change from a Reaction day to Rally day accompanied by an increase in volume. Volume Reversals
™ coming off intermediate lows or highs have greater significance in helping to define those lows or highs and important pivot points in the marketplace.
How do you use this list? VRs are buy and sell triggers and are particularly useful in defining lows or highs in stocks and stock
indexes. Traders find them particularly useful, especially coming off market extremes as an indication of a change of direction. Use the VRs in conjunction with your other technical indicators and you've
added a unique technical tool to your arsenal.
List of Volume Reversals 2/08/08 - Sectors
*** Sectors Positive Volume Reversals ***
Media - Broadcasting - Radio
ETM - Entercom Communications
SIRI - Sirius Satellite Radio
XMSR - XM Satellite Radio Hldgs
Metals & Mining - Aluminum
AA - Alcoa Inc
Metals & Mining - Gold
AEM - Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd
AUY - Yamana Gold Inc
GG - Goldcorp Inc
GRS - Gammon Lake Resources
KGC - Ninross Gold Corp
MGH - Minco Gold Corp
NAK - Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd
RBY - Rubicon Minerals Corporation
Metals & Mining - Silver
CDE - Coeur D'Alene Mines Corp
HL - Hecla Mining Co
SLW - Silver Wheaton Corp
Tobacco - Products - Other
UVV - Universal Corp
Transportation - Railroads
BNI - Burlington Nth Santa Fe
CSX - CSX Corp
*** Sectors Negative Volume Reversals ***
Banking - Regional Southeast Banks
FHN - First Horizon Natl
RF - Regions Financial Corp
TRMK - Trustmark Corp
Suggestions? Comments? on the newsletter service. We would like to hear from each and everyone of our subscribers. Our email is mark@vrsurvey.com.
DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of VRTrader.com may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. VRTrader.com staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control.
