Closing Technical Market Comments for Mon Mar 17, 2008
Indices Rally Back from Oversold Intraday Condition to Close Mixed
By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com)
We had a volatile session ,but the indices managed to end mixed on the day. Most of them, except for the Dow, closed down. But it was an interesting day with very strong negative futures pre-opening that sent the markets sharply lower at the opening. However, they bounced back, recovered the majority of their losses, and then weren't able to extend further and rolled over again in the morning, went to new lows in the afternoon, particularly on the S&P 500, which took out its January 22 low. The Nasdaq 100, however, held last week's low near the 1670 area. There was a sharp 3-wave rally at the end of the day, but in the last 15-20 minutes the indices rolled over again and took back about 40% of the late rally.
Net on the day the Dow was up 21, but the S&P 500 was down 11.54 and the Nasdaq 100 down 26.64. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was down 1.51.
Advance-declines were negative by 5 to 1 on New York and by 3 to 1 on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was negative by a little more than 3 to 1 on New York and 3 1/2 to 1 on Nasdaq. Total volume on New York was just under 2 billion, and Nasdaq traded 2 1/3 billion.
TheTechTrader.com board was nearly entirely negative with just a couple stocks up on the day. Portfolio position DCR, the reverse crude oil ETF, gained 77 cents today with the sharp drop in crude. Chart of the Week FEED was ahead by 9 cents, and JA Solar (JASO) gained 48 cents. Other than that, only the SMH, gaining a nickel, was up on the day on our board.
On the downside, to say the least BSC was the leading loser, down 25.19 to 4.81 after being acquired by JP Morgan for a song & a dance over the weekend.
Multiple-point losers included DryShips (DRYS) down 4.08, Excel Maritime (EXM) down 2.61, and TBS International (TBSI) 2.52 in a very weak shipping sector. Mercadolibre (MELI) fell 3.09. WM in a weak financial services sector was down 1.35. ABK dropped another 81 cents today. Boxer Shorts DECK fell 5.72, CMG 1.37, and CERN 1.36.
Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH) dropped 1.04. Ascent Solar (ASTI) got hammered on a secondary announcement, down 1.72.
China Natural Resources (CHNR) fell 1.68, Canadian Solar (CSIQ) 1.31, Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) 1.22, China Finance Online (JRJC) 1.08, and UEPS 1.19.
Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices took out double-bottom support right at the opening on the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P, but managed to crawl back at the end of the day before a late sell-off brought them back down, as the indices backed off declining moving averages resistance on the hourly charts. This leaves us in suspended animation, without any clear direction other than the fact that over the last 4 days the indices continue to make lower lows and lower highs and are in a down-channel. I expect that to continue unless something dramatically happens to alter the trend.
Good trading!
Harry
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