28 replies to this topic

[dharma]

we are in seasonal weakness. not the end of the bull market. and it seems that most feel we are in wave 2. in any event, 850 will be really good support and i continue to think, if it gets tested, it will hold or if it breaks it wont be by much. we shall see we are only in the beginning of the month. i like todays action w/ gold being down and the shares being up. actually my 1st 8years in this biz were as a futures trader(79-87), ie swing trader in the futures market. w/commodities the leverage is too great to have the market go against you. i was short the sp in 87and when i returned to trading in 2k i decided i didnt want to sit @the edge of my seat. so i traded stocks. and now instead of swing trading i decided to let the bull market do its thing. since i have been observing markets. i cant think of one bull market that didnt end in a parabolic blowoff. all of the commodity bulls of the 70s and 80 ended that way. i am looking to ride this thing into the parabolic. of course @times i lighten up or hedge. dharma

[dharma]

we are in seasonal weakness. not the end of the bull market. and it seems that most feel we are in wave 2. in any event, 850 will be really good support and i continue to think, if it gets tested, it will hold or if it breaks it wont be by much. we shall see we are only in the beginning of the month. i like todays action w/ gold being down and the shares being up. actually my 1st 8years in this biz were as a futures trader(79-87), ie swing trader in the futures market. w/commodities the leverage is too great to have the market go against you. i was short the sp in 87and when i returned to trading in 2k i decided i didnt want to sit @the edge of my seat. so i traded stocks. and now instead of swing trading i decided to let the bull market do its thing. since i have been observing markets. i cant think of one bull market that didnt end in a parabolic blowoff. all of the commodity bulls of the 70s and 80 ended that way. i am looking to ride this thing into the parabolic. of course @times i lighten up or hedge. the gold/xau ratio is still screaming - BUY . dharma

[kaotic]

Takedown will likely occur after the Fed meeting. With the Fed refusing to lower interest rates further, then the catalyst begins. Just like on March 17th, the cartel uses those types of opportunities to do the deed. Comm shorts still net -212k, historically major bottoms don't appear until they are net -85k. My chips are still stacked in the bear camp for now.

[dharma]

i am not going to add back what i sold @983, i am waiting to see if the gold stocks will find a bottom even if gold continues down. i still think 850 holds and may not even be tested. this is reminding me more and more of the situation in 05 and 07. in addition, if i draw a trendline from the 05 and 07 lows, it comes in @the 140 area. so, we are still above trendline support. i didnt think the gold stocks would get this weak in comparison to gold, but they have. waiting for a buy signal to be generated. i have a position so i can be very selective on my buy points. we are very close, but i will wait to pull the trigger. dharma

[dharma]

my stuff has shown low around the 11th although yesterday was extremely oversold on every time frame, i didnt pull the trigger. i am waiting for divergences to occur, not just an oversold bounce. so, i will post again when i see that occur, until then it is all background noise. i am counting everything since the march high as corrective action. still think 850 holds. or if breaks not by much dharma

[dharma]

now, there is potential for divergences to occur. if it happens, i will add back what i sold. i was looking @a dolar chart and we are in very good resistance here, a back kiss. not going to make the mistake of relating the dollar to gold 05-06 are fresh on my mind and both the dollar and gold went up. i will wait for the gold market and xau/hui to confirm that this correction is over. dharma

[dharma]

gld/gold made a lower low, xau/hui did not. signs of bottoming. dharma

[swanstkdh]

Look over on the FF board. There is a great chart of the dollar downtrend. It would co in side with all these moves. How can those idiots on Kudlow say the dollar is soaring back up to the 94 region? Anyway. I am still waiting.

[dharma]

ok now we have divergences in place, if they hold, i add back what i sold. on my count this is 5of5 of C. my concern of course is that it could extend. if not we are there. it should be over today. or on the 11th which is my date. although i am looking for divergences and dates dont matter to me @this point. i agree the market looks sold out! dharma