9 replies to this topic

[thoughtpwr]

Again, the Seasonal Trades are against the Silver/Gold complex. As of Friday's close a Silver SELL is on, which has a 75% probability of making an average gain of 6%. The close out date is 4/20. A second equivalent signal becomes active as of Monday's close 3/22 which is good to 4/22. Thus, they are the equivalent trade. As you may recall, the latest Gold signal was a SELL that is currently active until 5/4. Thus, both signals indicate that there is likely another month of weakness ahead on the stocks as these signals have been a good guide throughout the last three months of consolidation.

[SilentOne]

Seasonals are a waste of time at this juncture. JMO. The last one in March proved very false. cheers, john

[thoughtpwr]

Seasonals that are right 75% of the time are a better call than most people's analysis, particularly on this board. Seasonals are not a certainty, but if used with MACD, Stochastics, or RSI and MOVs, one can pick good entries. If you use stops, they are very usefull. The first one in January was a good call and could have lead to a good shorting opportunity right at the peak of a major bull move. How can they get any better than that. They have kept me out of entry points that have not lead anywhere in the last three months. The commercials are as short the metals as they have been and if they are right again, we are going to get tested. Had you combined the commercials with the seasonals, this would have been another winning formula. Sorry, I have to question your rationality in the response you made. I gave you information to use as you best could. You just told me you couldn't do anything with it. The fault is not in the information. This is why people lose out on seasonals. They see them wrong once and so they give up. A good stop called out by the seasonal would have prevented a loss and the seasonal is not even over until 5/4. I also noticed the current rally in HUI/XAU stalled out just on cue from the current Silver seasonal. It certainly could go either way at this point. Whatever happens, you would do well to respect the methodology. EJ

[SilentOne]

Hi Thought, Fair enough. I can't seem to post charts at this board despite repeated attempts. Links are OK, but no charts. If I were to post a YTD silver chart, there is not way you could tell me that silver seaonals sells are working right now. Silver is gearing in a serious 3rd wave. Thus, a seasonal trade would be high risk IMO. 3rd waves can be powerful moves and there is no sense in trying to play against such a trend. Silver may blow itself out here in the high 7s and then consolidate, but after that it goes to double digits. Does one really want to play the countertrend there? Perhaps gold has a better chance for a seasonal sell, but again I refer to the gold chart. A retest of the $431 is clearly in the cards with a break of $417 sooner rather than later. Now maybe you get a higher low on the date you posted, but I fail to see risk/reward there. I was too short in my response to you. Sorry about that. My view is buy these metals long and hold them. JMO that is. cheers, john

[SilentOne]

Further to my post, here are my thoughts on silver earlier this month.

http://clearstation....sernm=SilentOne

cheers,

john

[SilentOne]

Well,

Now that we are over $8 on silver today, need I say more?

GodmodeTrader

cheers,

john

[stockbucks_coffee]

good call SilentOne, I know you been bullish the past month. I been too but I'm being more defensive right now because the gold/silver ratio is nearing 51 (currently at 52.65), a long term lower trendline support. So maybe some caution, as we know nothing is certain. Huh, well if it breaks below 51 and keeps falling then I be bullish again. Just waiting now how it reacts at this junture. good luck trading, SC.

[SilentOne]

Hi again SC,

The squeeze is on!! Here and now!

Now why did I see that coming some may ask? Elliott wave foretold the move. I've been posting for weeks that this was coming. Metal stocks will go nuts with silver making this move.

Silver @ INO

cheers,

john

[The_Gold_Miner]

GO JOHN!!!!! Nice Call!!!

[SilentOne]

Hi GM, Thanks. I follow your page daily at Vestoranalytics. I enjoy your comments. BTW, I think Wavespeak needs to show the alternate bullish Elliott wave count, as they have stayed with the bearish one for too long. cheers, john