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[btreehouse]

Below is a possible suggestion regarding the DJIA.

I've been busy with a local state legislature campaign so it's unlikely I will be able to consistently post but I hope to make brief periodic posts one in a while again.



Above is my first impression of the DJIA and its pattern. The red line on the top chart represents where I expect the DJIA to go.

Simple tentative retracement levels are:
10,488 (.618)
10,406 (.500)
10,324 (.382)

Also, the area of the fourth wave of lesser degree covers a range of 10,328 - 10092. This makes 10,324 to 10,328 more attractive but I suggest its a minimum at this point.

The chart below is the DJIA AD line through March 23. The AD line continues to deteriorate. However, the NYSE AD line is still barely above support (rising support trend line). Please no comments or debates on the validaty of the NYSE AD line since NYSE calculation changes.



I will not venture a guess into the importants of the current decline from the high on February 19 yet until I have more data. At this point however, I do not see evidence of a substantial decline right away. March will end with no crash or collapse as I see it.

Regards,

[PorkLoin]

BTreehouse: >>Simple tentative retracement levels are:
10,488 (.618)
10,406 (.500)
10,324 (.382)

Also, the area of the fourth wave of lesser degree covers a range of 10,328 - 10092. This makes 10,324 to 10,328 more attractive but I suggest its a minimum at this point.<<

Hi BT -- good call there, and looks like that textbook five-wave decline yielded up a countertrend rally just the way it should have. If today's action is all or part of A of a developing ABC upwards correction, it'll be easy to hit your levels, and agreed that in such cases the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree is a likely minimum. Wouldn't be surprised to see this one rocket up to a .786 retrace, either.

Looks too simple and easy to count thus far, but you never know.

Best,

Doug.