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Dr. Joe Duarte's Market IQ


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#1 TTHQ Staff

TTHQ Staff

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 08:13 AM

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Posted ImageDallas, TX
October 10, 2008, 08:00 EST
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Black Friday
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This Must Be The Big OneElizabeth
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Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

We would not be surprised to see that kind of action taking placetoday, especially if the selling picks up steam.

Not much is safe right now, as oil and other commodities, except gold(GLD, below) are selling off. The U.S. Dollar is holding up, as is theSwiss Franc. We are long gold and the Franc. Dr. Duarte owns shares inthe Currency Shares Swiss Franc ETF (FXF).


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Technical Summary:

New Lows On SPX Again

The S & P 500 has now fallen to levels not seen since 2003, whichwas two years after the post 9/11 bear market.

The U.S. government, is now reportedly looking to nationalize banks bytaking equity stakes in them, and may at some point consider buyingstock index futures to stabilize the stock market.

So far, nothign has worked, and those who have shorted the marketshrewdly have done well. We have been short the S & P 500 on andoff quite successfully here. At this point we shorted the S & P 500on 10-8.


Aggressive traders should be ready to covertheir Short S & P 500 ETF (AMEX: SH) positions and be ready to golong via the SPY ETF at any time, though, as this market could be veryvolatile in a very short time frame.

Investors should remain in cash as the potential for volatility isstill very high. Only the most aggressive, experienced investors shouldbe short this market which could rebound at any time or fall rapidlyand bring out extraordinary measures from global governments.

Investors should be 100% in cash. Traders should be holding aboveaverage cash and should be ready to play both short and long, as wellas considering just avoiding the markets altogether.

There is still no reason to rush into the stock market. We are nowstarting to build a nice shopping list and will liekly add a fewpotential longs to our growth stock list in the nesxt few days.



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Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com





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Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com

It's an old adage on Wall Street, vice stocks, including alcohol andtobacco stocks tend to hold up better during bear markets. After all,folks, especially during dark times, will find money to buy smokes andbooze.

And while this may be true enough on Main Street, Wall Street isn'tbuying it, at least when it comes to Central Distribution.

Although incorporated in Delaware, CEDC's business is in Poland whereit distills Vodka, and distributes its own brands of liquor along withbeer and other alcoholic beverages, including imports, to a widevariety of outlets including liquor stores, petrol stations, and smallbusinesses.

The company's summary says that it has 39,000 customers.

So, it's a good story, and a solid business in a country and a regionthat is known for, shall we say, its interest in the company'sproducts.

Yet, the stock has taken a bath, along with the market, losing nearly60% of its value since July of this year.

When well placed booze companies can't keep their stock price up duringa huge bear market, it's just a bad sign for where things are.

The one solace for anyone who hasn't sold is that volume is tame, whichcould be taken to mean that at least investors are bailing out slowly.


Make money whether the market rises orfalls. Get Dr. Duarte's All NEW "Trading Futures For Dummies." The TradingManual for All Seasons. Updated, revised includes new charts, and fullchapter on ETF timing.



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