19 replies to this topic

[mdwllc]

Creating new commodity thread. Link to older precious metal thread is:
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=95592

12/3: Bot DXO [long 3.0X Oil] @ 3.10; bot DXDBX [long 2.5X US$] @ 43.75; bot TBT [short US 20 Bonds] @ 44.85...Best MDW

[johngeorge]

Hi Mike Thanks for your updates. Just to preface my remarks; I am the worst timer on Traders-Talk. Are you looking for a near term bounce in oil say to $50 or perhaps you are using cycles to determine your picks? Seems to me oil can go to ~$40. January crude is now about $44.50 nearly a $2.50 drop today and that is with the dollar down a smidgen. Best to you.

[mdwllc]

Hi Mike

Thanks for your updates. Just to preface my remarks; I am the worst timer on Traders-Talk. Are you looking for a near term bounce in oil say to $50 or perhaps you are using cycles to determine your picks? Seems to me oil can go to ~$40. January crude is now about $44.50 nearly a $2.50 drop today and that is with the dollar down a smidgen.

Best to you.

Johngeorge: I will try to answer you the best I can...I have been through hell the last two days because my data provider software won't feed to my model databases. Over the weekend [when I had my last good projection, I was originally looking for a target in the $45-50 range and would reevaluate on the 12/15 OPEC meeting.
Best I can do until tomorrow morning when I hope the database T/S people resolve their problem. Best MDW

[johngeorge]

Hi Mike

Thanks for your updates. Just to preface my remarks; I am the worst timer on Traders-Talk. Are you looking for a near term bounce in oil say to $50 or perhaps you are using cycles to determine your picks? Seems to me oil can go to ~$40. January crude is now about $44.50 nearly a $2.50 drop today and that is with the dollar down a smidgen.

Best to you.

Johngeorge: I will try to answer you the best I can...I have been through hell the last two days because my data provider software won't feed to my model databases. Over the weekend [when I had my last good projection, I was originally looking for a target in the $45-50 range and would reevaluate on the 12/15 OPEC meeting.
Best I can do until tomorrow morning when I hope the database T/S people resolve their problem. Best MDW

Mike

You are a great contributor to the board and have been making right on calls here for a long time. I just thought something was amiss. Trust you are back up and running your usual par excellence.

Best to you

[mdwllc]

Creating new commodity thread. Link to older precious metal thread is:
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=95592

12/3: Bot DXO [long 3.0X Oil] @ 3.10; bot DXDBX [long 2.5X US$] @ 43.75; bot TBT [short US 20 Bonds] @ 44.85...Best MDW

12/5: Removed hedge of DZZ @ 34.00; added to positions in CEF @ 8.95; AUY @ 4.50; TRE @ 2.60...Best MDW

[mdwllc]

Hi Mike

Thanks for your updates. Just to preface my remarks; I am the worst timer on Traders-Talk. Are you looking for a near term bounce in oil say to $50 or perhaps you are using cycles to determine your picks? Seems to me oil can go to ~$40. January crude is now about $44.50 nearly a $2.50 drop today and that is with the dollar down a smidgen.

Best to you.

Johngeorge: I will try to answer you the best I can...I have been through hell the last two days because my data provider software won't feed to my model databases. Over the weekend [when I had my last good projection, I was originally looking for a target in the $45-50 range and would reevaluate on the 12/15 OPEC meeting.
Best I can do until tomorrow morning when I hope the database T/S people resolve their problem. Best MDW

12/7: Now that I have my models 'working' on good data I thought I would provide an update on the major commodity segments I'm interested in. I am writing these comments from a cycle perspective supplanted with my neural model projections/trends.
- Precious metals. Gold has, or will this week, ended the decline of the correction from the Mar 2008 high and should continue higher towards the next cycle high of 25 Mar 2009. One caveat here, there are some possibilities towards the middle to late Jan that still require further analysis and I may revise the cycle turning point at that time. I took off my DZZ hedge Friday and added to several of my physical and miner positions as stated in my update thread. Presently, I have one last transaction in this area that I plan to execute...I plan to initiate a position in some London platinum ETF's sometime next week. As far as the neural model, the neural moving averaging and RSI appear to have bottomed and turning upwards.
- Currencies. I am currently long the US$. It has rallied sharply much like 1991 when there were banking/real estate problems during the S&L crisis and then made new lows the following year. I expect a similar outcome to the US$ beginning in 2009. At his point in time, I am looking at the turning point to occur somewhere around the 8800 resistance level or the time frame between 12/30 - 1/9/2009. At that time it will probably retrace before establishing the 2009 high around 20 Jan 2009. For those interested in short term trading opportunities, the neural model indicates possibilities in the Mexican Peso or Swiss Franc.
- Energies. I am currently long using the 3X ETF. Oil has fallen to the 5 year cycle low near 40 and really raises doubts as how high the next 5 year rally into the 5 years cycle high of 2010. Presently, the neural model moving averages and RSI are scraping the bottom and I plan to reevaluate the price action between now and the 12/17 OPEC meeting. For those in UNG, the cycle low should be occurring between the 1/7-1/9/2009 time frame. There might be a sympathetic rise with crude into the OPEC meeting on the 17th.
- Bonds. I am currently short using the Lehman 20 year inverse ETF. Rates are making new lows as Bonds complete the 30 year cycle which caused the last debt boom in 1929. The spread will result in continuing the move down to complete the last 6 year cycle low in 2010.

Best MDW

[johngeorge]

Thank you for sharing Mike You always bring such good stuff to the board. :santa: Definitive buys and sells along with clear explanations of your excellent cycle work. It is most appreciated. Best to you

[mdwllc]

Creating new commodity thread. Link to older precious metal thread is:
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=95592

12/3: Bot DXO [long 3.0X Oil] @ 3.10; bot DXDBX [long 2.5X US$] @ 43.75; bot TBT [short US 20 Bonds] @ 44.85...Best MDW

12/5: Removed hedge of DZZ @ 34.00; added to positions in CEF @ 8.95; AUY @ 4.50; TRE @ 2.60...Best MDW

12/11: Stopped out of DXDBX @ 40.25 [loss of 3.50/sh]; reinvested residual funds in DXDDX [short 2.5X US$] @ 18.20...Best MDW

[mdwllc]

Creating new commodity thread. Link to older precious metal thread is:
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=95592

12/3: Bot DXO [long 3.0X Oil] @ 3.10; bot DXDBX [long 2.5X US$] @ 43.75; bot TBT [short US 20 Bonds] @ 44.85...Best MDW

12/5: Removed hedge of DZZ @ 34.00; added to positions in CEF @ 8.95; AUY @ 4.50; TRE @ 2.60...Best MDW

12/11: Stopped out of DXDBX @ 40.25 [loss of 3.50/sh]; reinvested residual funds in DXDDX [short 2.5X US$] @ 18.20...Best MDW

12/12: Stopped out of CEF @10.05 and TBT @ 42.50; took profits in TRE @ 3.50; AUY @ 6.25; DXO @ 3.25. Will restablish various positions next week after OPEC etc. Have a great weekend....Best MDW

[mdwllc]

Creating new commodity thread. Link to older precious metal thread is:
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=95592

12/3: Bot DXO [long 3.0X Oil] @ 3.10; bot DXDBX [long 2.5X US$] @ 43.75; bot TBT [short US 20 Bonds] @ 44.85...Best MDW

12/5: Removed hedge of DZZ @ 34.00; added to positions in CEF @ 8.95; AUY @ 4.50; TRE @ 2.60...Best MDW

12/11: Stopped out of DXDBX @ 40.25 [loss of 3.50/sh]; reinvested residual funds in DXDDX [short 2.5X US$] @ 18.20...Best MDW

12/12: Stopped out of CEF @10.05 and TBT @ 42.50; took profits in TRE @ 3.50; AUY @ 6.25; DXO @ 3.25. Will reestablish various positions next week after OPEC etc. Have a great weekend....Best MDW

12/14: Thoughts after spending the weekend with the models:
Petro: Believe hit the up cycle Friday 12/12 and will be moving down into the 12/22 - 1/7 time frame.
Precious Metals: a cycle high is coming in between last Friday 12/12 to Wednesday 12/17 most likely around the 840 area. I plan to reestablish the funds from 12/12 at that time frame. In the meantime, I will establish a hedge using DZZ for the remaining portion of my allocation to PM's.
US$: Will be looking to reverse current short position around the 8300 area.
Indicies: Frankly, this sector makes me extremely nervous as I see a major down move becoming a high probability. Price action this Wednesday 12/17 will be significant. I will be establishing a short position of some type...will post when I make my decision.
Best...MDW