Crude Oil Hurst Cycles
#31
Posted 10 January 2009 - 08:24 PM
We all choose our preferred poison. The thing is I don't want to take that much equity exposure when trading the commodities long going forward. Not worth the stock specific-risk in this environment IMO. It is all about trades this year, long and short.
I had a look at Suncor and do watch this stock. Short term there is risk as there is a potential top forming here that looks oddly similar to the one in Aug. 2008. A reverse H&S? It was sporting the same pattern in August and look what happened. Those MAs better hold.
The other thing that is disconcerting for oilsands projects is the current and near term price for crude. Many are saying that Suncor and the like will not survive with oil below $75. I don't personally know what that magic number is crude, nor do I care to make that wager. But I believe the market is currently trying to decide on this.
http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif
cheers,
john
#32
Posted 10 January 2009 - 08:27 PM
cheers,
john
Edited by SilentOne, 10 January 2009 - 08:28 PM.
#33
Posted 13 January 2009 - 10:08 AM
#34
Posted 13 January 2009 - 11:09 PM
Went long USO, UGA and HOU.TO at the open. An initial position taken here as the 14 day cycle approaches a bottom.
cheers,
john
I'm with you, John. I took half a position yesterday. We'll see how this plays out.
#35
Posted 14 January 2009 - 02:47 PM
Edited by SilentOne, 14 January 2009 - 02:49 PM.
#36
Posted 16 January 2009 - 10:21 AM
Edited by SilentOne, 16 January 2009 - 10:24 AM.
#37
Posted 16 January 2009 - 05:23 PM
Took profits in CNQ, AET.UN and USO, UGA. Not convincing here and trend is very uncertain. I have a toe in here still, but I'll sit back and wait. We need a solid up day to confirm another swing long. The longer this consolidation drags on, the more likely it fails and rolls to the downside.
cheers,
john
John:
I agree - WTIC looks like ultimatley needs more downside ($28-30), however, individual stock charts don't look that bad - will resolve one way or the other and should be buy of a lifetime!
stubaby
#38
Posted 26 January 2009 - 01:44 PM
cheers,
john
#39
Posted 05 February 2009 - 09:38 PM
Edited by SilentOne, 05 February 2009 - 09:47 PM.
#40
Posted 06 February 2009 - 03:16 PM
Edited by SilentOne, 06 February 2009 - 03:22 PM.