Did any one listen?
#1
Posted 20 April 2004 - 05:49 PM
And the charts said do not buy yet.
Landscape to charts always can change.
My last post was on GOLD BOTTOM?, and I tried to show the BEAR FLAG.
Please look at this HUI chart closely.
If we do not hold on the lower 190’s, we will test lower 150’s.
One day bounce does not make a bottom. If tomorrow we bounce, still be defensive. You do not have to be first to catch the bottom.
Trade the middle, and there is plenty of money to be made in middle.
#2
Posted 20 April 2004 - 06:06 PM
#3
Posted 20 April 2004 - 06:10 PM
#4
Posted 21 April 2004 - 07:29 AM
I see that channel holding. XAU ABC target is 85-86 now (if you are bullish).
Here's the HUI long view. Thanks to Steve Swink for this chart. An ABC on the HUI would give 55 points down from 241 or about 186 as a target on a spike down. Today or tomorrow most likely, take your pick.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$HUI,uu[p,a]whclyyay[d20000906,20041231][pb10!b40][vc60][iut!uh5,5!ui10,10!up14,3,3][J21672171,Y].gif
cheers,
john
#5
Posted 21 April 2004 - 09:13 AM
#6
Posted 21 April 2004 - 09:14 AM
boy, being one day EARLY can sure make a difference especially in the volatile xau/hui sectors.boy, being one day can sure make a difference especially in the volatile xau/hui sectors.
#7
Posted 21 April 2004 - 11:38 AM
#8
Posted 21 April 2004 - 12:34 PM
I have considered myself a long termer up to the last few days and have been holding a core gold stock position of around 15-20% of liquid assets. But many of my positions were added at higher prices, and it's very hard for me to add after the recent price action when I'm down by so much. At best I will hold and see if a base builds. The question is what to do when strength returns: do I use it as an exit point? Or do I add? The last time we appeared to be "base-building" (in March), it was a fake out and now this happened. I'm really in a quandary over what to do here. Fundamentally I still think gold has a case but the technicals look pretty awful right now. Silver looks even worse.SilentOne, looks like we got the bounce. Long term I am bullish and think that any long termers would be adding at these levels. I'll probably be picking some up near the close today.
#9
Posted 21 April 2004 - 04:41 PM
What's your safety net exit strategy TechSkeptic? Long term (years) the gold market is still going strong, it's the mid term action that is getting hit. If the elliott wave counts I watch are correct then we can make a new high above last Nov/Dec before the 5 wave advance is over. Mid term I see the XAU bouncing off the bottom of a bear channel, and hitting 100 near term seems possible. I loaded up on longs near the close today for a short term trade. If the XAU falls through the lower channel I'm out. At this point I see more positives than negatives for a long position as long as you have a good exit strategy, because no one can tell the future... hehehI have considered myself a long termer up to the last few days and have been holding a core gold stock position of around 15-20% of liquid assets. But many of my positions were added at higher prices, and it's very hard for me to add after the recent price action when I'm down by so much. At best I will hold and see if a base builds. The question is what to do when strength returns: do I use it as an exit point? Or do I add? The last time we appeared to be "base-building" (in March), it was a fake out and now this happened. I'm really in a quandary over what to do here. Fundamentally I still think gold has a case but the technicals look pretty awful right now. Silver looks even worse.SilentOne, looks like we got the bounce. Long term I am bullish and think that any long termers would be adding at these levels. I'll probably be picking some up near the close today.
#10
Posted 21 April 2004 - 06:29 PM