The VRTrader.com VR Silver Newsletter - Monday 5/16/2011
"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright ©2011, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. LEIBOVIT FILES | by Mark Leibovit Leibovit Files
Monday, May 16, 2011
Markets Being Driven Lower by the Plunge Protection Team
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Commentary below from Mark Leibovit, TIMER DIGEST's #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 10-year period ending in 2007, the #2 Intermediate Market Timer for the 10-year period ending in 2009, AND the #3 Gold Timer for the Ten Year Period ending 12/31/10.
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TIMER DIGEST SIGNALS:
Stocks - BULL -
Since the market (all markets) topped on May 2, the followers of 'Sell May and Go Away' are the most envied players in town. Technical and seasonal patterns do not favor the stock market going forward at this time. For traders, however, there will always be opportunities long or short. Looking at the market several months out, my gut feeling is that we can overall go higher, but I would still encourage you to lighten up just in case we experience another mini or 'flash' crash in the interim. Support for the SPX remains ranges from 1300 to 1310 with support at 1295 then 1270. We're entering 'summer' trading season which is historically choppy. Though I still carry the bull flag thinking we're ultimately headed back to or through the 2007 highs (between now and 2014), a lot can happen in the interim. Option Expiration week is ahead and 'normally' we experience a technical bounce coming on the heels of last week's sell-off on 'Weird Wollie Wednesday'
Gold - Bull -
Technical and cyclical patterns are negative. Though there is always the chance of sharp technical bounce, it is clear to me that we've run out of time, especially when you look at the carnage inflicted on Silver by the government's Plunge Protection Team in cahoots with the CME who also decided to target Crude Oil by also raising margin requirements. This is one of those 'outlier' events that unfortunately have become commonplace in today's economic, political and geocosmic world. That said, I am still a 'big picture' bull on Gold (been singing the same song for nearly a decade), but downside risk to 1425 and then 1370. Silver is still negative and though I do not have specific new downside target to report, when they throw the baby out with the bathwater anything is possible to the downside. Frankly, I have awaiting a potential positive technical signal to help confirm another rally phase (let's call it a retest of recent highs in both Gold and Silver) is underway.
Bonds - Bullish -
It's called a 'financial enema' when the 'Street' has brainwashed you to believe that interest rates are going up and bond markets are going down. As you know, the opposite has just occurred and while the 'big picture' for bonds does not appear healthy, for now there be buyers!
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Technical Analysts Corner -
Negative Leibovit Volume Reversals are the current prevailing signal in both stocks, precious metals and commodities. With the exception of a possible options expiration week bounce, these markets currently look lower until volume shifts back to the positive side of the ledger.
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UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES/MARKET EVENTS
MAY 16 - 20, 2011:
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MONDAY, MAY 16:
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
9:00 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
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TUESDAY, MAY 17:
Turnaround Tuesday
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
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WEDNESDAY, MAY 18:
Bank Reserve Settlement
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard speech to the Money Marketeers in New York.
7:00 PM ET
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THURSDAY, MAY 19:
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Philadelphia Fed Survey
10:00 AM ET
Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
2-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET
5-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
2:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
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FRIDAY, MAY 20:
No economic reports scheduled.
Options Expiration day!
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STOCKS - ACTION ALERT -
The market was curse on Friday the 13th by increasing worries about Greece after the European Commission said its economy is doing worse than expected and amid increased talk that Greece might have to restructure its debt. Additionally, disappointing earnings from the Tech sector, a rising Dollar, historic flooding along the Mississippi River that threatens to disrupt oil production, and an insignificant dividend from Citigroup all contributed to the market's decline. The Dow Industrials fell 100.17 or 0.79% to 12595.75, the S&P 500 declined 10.88 or 0.81% to 1337.77, and the NASDAQ lost 34.57 or 1.21% to 2828.47. Breadth was negative. Volume was light, not unusual for a Friday.
All nine market sectors declined on Friday. Financials led the way down (XLF -1.44%) after Citigroup announced it would start paying a meaningless one-cent dividend. XLF posted its worst close of the year.
Technology was another big loser (XLK -1.23%) following weak earnings from CA and Nvidia bad news out of Yahoo.
Materials declined (XLB -1.28%) after gold fell below $1500. XLB closed at its lowest level in nearly two months.
Even Energy stocks fell (XLE -0.49%) despite the rally in crude oil. If the flooding along the Mississippi River disrupts oil production or refining, it won't matter much what the price of oil is because the oil companies won't be able to produce it to sell it.
Small Caps (IWM -1.39%) fell more than Large Caps (SPY -0.77%) as traders avoided risk.
Looking for some positives, Consumer Staples (XLP -0.12%), Healthcare (XLV -0.47%), and Utilities (XLU -0.30%) hit new highs Friday, though they all finished lower. But is this really a positive? These are defensive sectors. In a bull market, we would want to see economically sensitive stocks (XLI -1.21% and XLY -0.76%) or Technology lead the way up. One cannot expect a long-term bull market to be led by defensive names or commodity stocks, which had been leading the market higher up until a couple of weeks ago. "Sell in May and go away" might work again this year. With recent Negative Leibovit Volume Reversals, Platinum subscribers went short on Friday.
What the financial press is not talking about and what you generally hear one of the lone voices out there, me, is that the the culprit here is the Plunge Protecton Team who has made a concerted effort to drive down commodity prices and strengthen the Dollar is which is a BIG NEGATIVE for equity market. It all began by first raising margin requirements on Silver and then moved to doing the same for Crude Oil. You see, folks, the PPT can work in both directions and unlimited power can be used or misused.
Recall, the US Justice Department in recent weeks announced a new 'working group' (the Plunge Protection Team's original name was the 'Working Group on Financial Markets' created by Ronald Reagan in 1988) called the 'Financial Fraud Task Force (FFTF). Unfortunately, all they need to do is look within rather than without, but that won't happen until we kick the bums out which include the non-elected elite in Washington, D.C., so-called 'secret government'. More on this another time.
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DOW TRANSPORTS - ACTION ALERT -
Transportation stocks fell even more than the broader market as oil prices rose. The Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 70.33 or 1.29% to 5383.91, its lowest closing level in three weeks. That is not a good sign, as I view the Transports as a 'market leader'.
As one of the weaker indexes right now, Platinum subscribers shorted the Transportation Average's ETF along with another of other broad indexes. (See comments above.)
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GOLD and METALS - ACTION ALERT -
Metals moved mostly lower, though silver rose and copper posted a small gain, as the Dollar rallied on Euro-debt concerns. Gold declined 11.70 to 1495.20 even though it traded as high as 1517.80 Friday morning. Silver rose 0.68 to 35.30, though that was down from a high of 36.64. Platinum fell 5 to 1765 and palladium dropped 9 to 706 while copper inched up 0.0130 to 3.9835.
For more in depth coverage of all the week's action, subscribe to the VR Gold Newsletter. http://www.vrgoldletter.com/.
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URANIUM - ACTION ALERT
Spot Uranium 56.50. Uranium swung from the June 13, 2007 high of 154.95 down to 40.00 and recently backup to 73.00 until the Japanese earthquake. We then nosedived to 52.00, recovered back to 62.5 and now we're at 58.00. I think I need Dramamine. Nothing has changed regarding the need for nuclear power. The only change is a short-term emotional response. Fossil fuels will only last so long and nuclear power is infinite.
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BONDS - ACTION ALERT-
Treasuries rose on Friday as traders looked for safety amid a falling stock market and concerns that Greece may restructure its debt. The long bond future gained 20/32 to 124 14/32.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York bought $6.94 billion of Treasury debt on Friday as part of a program that is the centerpiece of the Fed's loose monetary policy. Dealers offered the Fed $16.65 billion in notes maturing from 2013 through 2015.
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CRUDE OIL - ACTION ALERT -
Oil rallied despite the rising Dollar as traders instead focused on the rising Mississippi River that threatens to disrupt refinery production. Crude oil gained 0.68 to 99.65. Technicals are negative here for the same reason as Gold and Silver turned negative, but Crude managed to hold support in the 94-95 range last week, so a bounce cannot be discounted. Overall trend turned negative with potential now into the mid-80s during the summer months. Crude oil hit a 31-month high of 114.83 on May 2 and hit a new bear market low of 32.70 on January 20, 2008. Recall, I predicted a rally back to $70.00 when Crude Oil was trading in the high 30s. Previous to that I had predicted the decline to $40 when
June gasoline added 1 cent to $3.07 a gallon. It traded as high as $3.14 a gallon earlier.
June heating oil added 3 cents, or 1%, to settle at $2.94 a gallon.
June natural gas rose 5 cents, or 1.2%, to $4.25 per million British thermal units.
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US DOLLAR - ACTION ALERT -
The US Dollar Index rallied to a six-week high after good US economic news and growing concerns about Portugal and Greece. The US Dollar Index rose 0.517 to 75.757.
The U.S. Dollar Index ETF (UUP) has posted positive technical signals over the past couple of weeks, so though a big-picture bear, I'm giving the upside the benefit of the doubt. The US Dollar hit a new 14-month high of 88.708 on June 7, 2010 and recently hit a 33-month low of 72.696 on May 4. I believe we're overall headed back to the March 18, 2008 low of 70.698 and will see 66.00 or much lower in the next couple of years. In a sense the U.S. Dollar is terminal, though it is often traded as a temporary hedge or refuge due to any number of economic or geo-political problems.
The U.S. monetary authorities intervened in the foreign exchange markets to prop up the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, buying up $1 billion in greenbacks, on March 18, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Friday in its quarterly report to the Congress. The action was part of a coordinated G-7 intervention and was carried out in conjunction with officials from Japan, the European Union, Canada and the United Kingdom.
Restructuring Greece's debt is too risky and may have a negative impact on the euro-zone region as a whole without resolving any of the underlying issues, a senior European Central Bank official said Friday. "The notion that one could solve a budget crisis by simple debt reduction is an illusion," Juergen Stark, a member of the ECB Executive Board, said in a speech at an award ceremony in Aachen, Germany. Stark noted that debt restructuring will trigger more uncertainties and lead to slower economic growth, forcing the government to borrow more heavily, according to a translated transcript of the speech. Stark also dismissed concerns that Greece was insolvent and stressed the importance of consistent implementation of structural reform.
The European Commission, International Monetary Fund and Germany are backing a debt extension for Greece while the Europeaan Central Bank and France, both holders of Greek debt, are opposing the move.
The European Commission warned that the Greek economy will likely contract more than previously thought and as Ewald Nowotny, a member of the European Central Bank's governing council, reportedly said Athens hasn't yet met the terms of its rescue package.
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said Friday that most Portuguese banks will likely need to take "decisive action" to meet new capital requirements.
Euro-zone gross domestic product expanded by a stronger-than-expected 0.8% in the first quarter of 2011 compared to the previous three months and grew by 2.5% compared to the same period last year. Economists had forecast quarterly growth of 0.6% and a 2.2% annual gain, but a stronger figure was anticipated following the release of robust national data, particularly from Germany and France.
The Euro fell 0.91% against the Dollar.
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ECONOMIC NEWS:
The prices that American consumers paid for goods and services rose 0.4% in April, with higher gasoline costs accounting for more than half the increase. Economists expected the consumer-price index to increase 0.4% in April. Consumer prices have jumped an unadjusted 3.2% over the past year, the largest 12-month increase since October 2008. As recently as November, the 12-month increase was 1.1%. Surging oil prices accounted for the bulk of the CPI increase, as the energy index jumped 2.2% last month. Energy prices have leaped 19% - and gas has surged 33% - over the past 12 months. Stripping out food and energy, the so-called core rate of consumer-price inflation rose 0.2% - matching forecasts.
The University of Michigan-Thomson Reuters preliminary consumer sentiment index climbed to a reading of 72.4 from a reading of 69.8 in April. Economists expected a 71.0 reading. The gauge hasn't been above 100 since Jan. 2004 and was at 76.1 on the eve of the last recession.
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CORPORATE NEWS:
Nvidia said excluding one-time items, it earned 27 cents a share on revenue of $962 million for the first quarter. Analysts had forecast 19 cents a share in earnings on $948 million in revenue. On a net basis, Nvidia made $135.2 million, or 22 cents a share. In the year-ago period, the company earned $137.6 million, or 23 cents a share, on $1 billion in sales. NVDA declined 10.93%.
Nordstrom's earnings were $145 million, or 65 cents a share, on revenue of $2.23 billion, compared with $116 million, or 52 cents a share, on $1.99 billion in sales. Nordstrom said its results included charges of 4 cents a share related to its acquisition of HauteLook, which was completed during the quarter. Analysts expected earnings of 67 cents a share on sales of $2.25 million. Nordstrom also said its board has authorized a stock-buyback plan of up to $750 million worth of the company's common stock. JWN fell 3.13%.
Yahoo said that the transfer of control of an online payment unit of China-based Alibaba Group, in which Yahoo holds a roughly 39% stake, occurred without its knowledge. YHOO dropped 3.61%.
Dillard's said its net income rose to $76.7 million, or $1.31 a share, from $48.8 million, or 68 cents a share, in the year-ago period. The number of shares outstanding decreased to 58.5 million from 72.3 million. The retailer said sales in the recent quarter was $1.47 billion, compared to $1.45 billion a year ago. Analysts were looking for earnings of $56 million, on average, with sales of $1.46 billion. DDS rallied 15.25%.
CA reported fiscal fourth-quarter results that fell short of analysts' forecasts. CA said that for its fourth quarter it earned $188 million, or 37 cents a share, on revenue of $1.13 billion. Excluding one-time items, CA would have earned 48 cents a share, while analysts had forecast the company to earn 50 cents a share. CA also said it plans on selling its Internet security business to venture capital firm Updata Partners. CA lost 8.62%.
Goldman Sachs raised its rating on Dean Foods to buy from neutral. Analyst Judy Hong cited the potential for improving margins and a strengthening balance sheet. DF jumped 9.20%. The stock has now surged 52% since the beginning of the year.
Citigroup reinstated the company's quarterly dividend of a penny a share. The dividend will be paid on June 17 to shareholders of record on May 27. Citi had announced in March that it will restore dividends following a 1-for-10 reverse stock split on May 6. C was down 2.10%.
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Canadian TSX, TSX Venture and Canadian Dollar Commentary for our Canadian clients updated for Monday, May 16:
The Canadian market held up much better than the US market, benefiting from a weak Canadian Dollar and rising oil prices. The TSX fell 12.26 or 0.09% to 13377.16, its lowest close since January, but as I warned a break under 13,237.93 will trigger a further decline toward 12,600 and possibly lower later. This is a market you need to be short on a healthy technical rally (should we get one).
Power Corp. of Canada said it earned $216 million attributable to participating shareholders or 47 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended March 31 compared with $165 million or 36 cents per diluted share a year ago. Revenue totaled $7.04 billion, down from $9.01 billion and its shares rose six cents to $28.36.
TMX Group Inc., operator of the Toronto Stock Exchange, reported that profits rose 13% in the first quarter to $64.3 million on stronger trading volumes. The company is in the midst of an attempted merger with the London Stock Exchange Group and its shares ticked 75 cents higher to $41.75.
Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp. more than doubled its first-quarter profit to $38.9 million, as its revenue increased 84% over the comparable period of 2010. Its units rose 36 cents to $70.26.
Enerplus Corp. shares gained seven cents to $29.21 reported net profit of $29.5 million in the first quarter, reversing a much bigger loss in the same quarter of 2010. The Calgary-based oil and gas producer, with properties in Western Canada and parts of the United States, said the earnings compared with last year's loss of $184 million.
Energy 321.00 -1.13 (-0.35%)
Financials 195.25 -0.13 (-0.07%)
Health Care 60.09 -0.46 (-0.76%)
Industrials 116.82 -0.18 (-0.15%)
Info Tech 32.80 -0.01 (-0.03%)
Metals & Mining 1,365.43 -1.07 (-0.08%)
Telecom 96.72 -0.02 (-0.02%)
Utilities 225.56 0.56 (0.25%)
Resistance 13,690, 14,089, 14,330, 14,715, 15,000, 15,600. Support is 13,237, 13,139, 13,000, 12,850, 12,600, 12,501, 12,200, 12,055, 11,750, 11,480, 11,380, 11,065, 10,990, 10,800, 10,600, 10,400, 10,384, 9500, 9300, 9140.
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CANADIAN TSX Venture:
The Venture fell more sharply on Friday as gold declined and small caps underperformed. The TSX Venture lost 11.77 or 0.57% to finish at 2038.22, its worst close since November. The TSX Venture has already broken under key support at 2053 and it's next stop is the 1700 area.
Resistance: 2127, 2254, 2291, 2400, 2465, 2535, 2575. Support: 2033, 2070, 2208, 1995, 1974, 1902, 1887, 1806, 1788.
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THE CANADIAN DOLLAR (using the FXC Exchange Traded Fund):
The Canadian Dollar fell as traders looked for safety, though it did manage a small gain against the Euro. FXC declined 0.73 to 102.62. The Canadian Dollar was down 0.63% against the US Dollar to a six-week low, but rose 0.27% against the Euro.
Resistance is 105.25, 108.00, 110.00, 113.00. Support is 102.37, 101.20, 99.77, 95.96, 93.20, 92.50 91.82, 91.00, 89.75, 87.50 and 85.18.
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DAILY VR LIST:
Editor's note: The Daily VR List here is abbreviated with the full list only available to Platinum subscribers by clicking on 'Current VR List' on the Home Page of VRtrader.com. Canadian shares are listed at the top of each section with the title: '...CANADIAN STOCKS...'.
Metastock has announced the release of my Leibovit Volume Reversal 'Add-Ons':
http://tinyurl.com/469bbzh
Whether you're a trader or money manager, the use of my Add-on will be an invaluable and unique complement to your regimen. It is
30 years in the making, so don't miss it!
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VOLUME REVERSALS FOR FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2011:
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POSITIVE VRs:
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.. CANADIAN STOCKS ... Canadian Stocks
AER.UN GROUPE-AEROPLAN, INC.
CDH CORRIDOR RESOURCES IN
CS.UN CAPSTONE MINING CO
ESI.UN ENSIGN ENERGY SERVICES
FEL.UN FAIRBORNE ENERGY LTS
HBM.UN HUDBAY MINERALS INC
HR.UN H&R REAL ESTATE INVES
IVN.UN IVANHOE MINES
LMA LA MANCHA RESOURCES I
MRU.A METRO INC CLASS A SUB CL A
SAS ST ANDREW GOLDFIELDS
SLF.UN SUNLIFE FINANCIAL SERTVICES
TCM.UN THOMPSON CREEK METALS CO
TH THERATECHNOLOGIES INC
XSP ISHARES CDN S&P 500 H
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U.S. STOCKS:
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AEROSPACE/DEFENSE Aerospace/Defense Major Dive
BA Boeing Co
AEROSPACE/DEFENSE Aerospace/Defense Products & S
DCO Ducommun Inc
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Manufacturers - Major
SORL SORL Auto Parts Inc
TSLA Tesla Motors Inc
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Parts
WMCO Williams Controls Inc
BANKING Foreign Regional Banks
CIB Bancolombia Sa
FBP.B First BanCorp-Preferred
BANKING Money Center Banks
HBA.H HSBC USA Inc-Preferred
WFC Wells Fargo & Co New
BANKING Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks
BNCN BNC Bancorp NC
CFFI C&F Financial Corp
BANKING Regional - Midwest Banks
FFNM First Federal of Northern Mich
IFC Irwin Financial Corp
BANKING Regional - Northeast Banks
HUVL Hudson Valley Hldgs Corp
NBN Northeast Bancorp
BANKING Regional - Pacific Banks
DNBF Dnb Finl Corp
FIBK First Interstate Bancsystems
BANKING Regional - Southwest Banks
EFSC Enterprise Financial Services
WTBA West Bancorporation Inc
BANKING Savings & Loans
BOFI BofI Holding Inc
CAFI Camco Financial Corp
CHEMICALS Chemicals - Major Diversified
TPCG TPC Group Inc
CHEMICALS Specialty Chemicals
FUL H.b. Fuller Co
GFRE Gulf Resources Inc
CHEMICALS Synthetics
AWC Alumina Limited
CE Celanese
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Based Systems
TLVT Telvent Git Sa Ord
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Peripherals
IN Intermec Inc
WAVX Wave Systems Corp Cl A
COMPUTER HARDWARE Data Storage Devices
HILL Dot Hill Systems Corp
IMN Imation Corp
COMPUTER HARDWARE Networking & Communication Dev
DGII Digi International Inc
EZCH Lanoptics Ltd
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Application Software
ATEA Astea International Inc
FFIV F5 Networks Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Business Software & Services
DTLK Datalink Corporation
IHS IHS Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Information Technology Service
CIS Camelot Information Systems In
CTGX Computer Task Group Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Security Software & Services
IL Intralinks Holdings` Inc.
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Technical & System Software
CDNS Cadence Design Systems
PNS Pinnacle Data Sys Inc
CONGLOMERATES Conglomerates
CR Crane Co
HSC Harsco Corp
CONSUMER DURABLES Business Equipment
KNL Knoll Inc
NTE Nam Tai Electronics Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Electronic Equipment
SRSL Srs Labs Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Home Furnishings & Fixtures
HOFT Hooker Furniture
CONSUMER DURABLES Sporting Goods
NLS Nautilus Group Inc (the)
CONSUMER DURABLES Toys & Games
RUS Russ Berrie & Co Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Cleaning Products
DAR Darling International
ECL Ecolab Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Office Supplies
ATX A.T. Cross Co
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Personal Products
CAW Cca Industries Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Rubber & Plastics
AEPI Aep Industries Inc
SHLM A.Schulman Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Textile - Apparel Clothing
APP Endeavor Acquisition Corp
OXM Oxford Industries Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Business/Management Services
ABM Abm Industries Inc
ATHN Athenahealth
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Education & Training Services
ATAI Ata Inc.
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Personal Services
CPY Cpi Corp
WOOF Vca Antech
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Rental & Leasing Services
R Ryder Systems Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Research Services
ICLR Icon Plc Ads
REFR Research Frontiers Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Security & Protection Services
MOC Command Security Corp
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Staffing & Outsourcing Service
HHGP Hudson Highland Grp Inc W/i
SFN Spherion Corporation
DRUGS Biotechnology
ABIO Arca Biopharma Incorporated
CDXS Codexis Inc
DRUGS Diagnostic Substances
AKRX Akorn Inc
THLD Threshold Pharmaceuticals
DRUGS Drug Delivery
ELN Elan Corp Plc
FLML Flamel Technologies Sa
DRUGS Drug Manufacturers - Major
ACRX AcelRx Pharmaceuticals` Inc
ZGNX Zogenix Inc.
DRUGS Drug Manufacturers - Other
AMLN Amylin Pharmaceuticals
CRME Cardiome Pharma Corp
DRUGS Drug Related Products
PRGO Perrigo Co
DRUGS Drugs - Generic
CPRX Catalyst Pharmaceuticals
ELECTRONICS Diversified Electronics
BELFB Bel Fuse Inc Cl B
SIMO Silicon Motion Technology Corp
ELECTRONICS Printed Circuit Boards
DDIC Ddi Corp
IEC Iec Electronics Corp
ELECTRONICS Scientific & Technical Instrum
A Agilent Technologies Inc
AFFX Affymetrix Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Broad Line
ADI Analog Devices Inc
TXN Texas Instruments Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Integrated Cir
OVTI Omnivision Technologies
RFMD Rf Micro Devices Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Specialized
ALTR Altera Corp
CRUS Cirrus Logic Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor Equipment & Mate
MKSI Mks Instruments Inc
TSRA Tessera Technologies Inc
ENERGY Independent Oil & Gas
CXPO Crimson Exploratrion Inc
EPM Evolution Petroleum Corp
ENERGY Oil & Gas Drilling & Explorati
ATLS Atlas America Inc
ATW Atwood Oceanics Inc
ENERGY Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
CAM Cooper Cameron Corp
EXXI Energy XXI (Bermuda) Limited
ENERGY Oil & Gas Pipelines
APL Atlas Pipeline Prtnrs Lp
EEP Enbridge Energy Partners Lp
ENERGY Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
ASH Ashland Inc
CHKM Chesapeake Midstream Partners`
FINANCIAL SERVICES Asset Management
TROW T. Rowe Price Associates
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Debt
AGZ iShares Barclays Agency Bond
BAF Blackrock Fl Ins Muni Inc Trus
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Equity
ADE ELEMENTS Linked to the Austral
AXEN iShares MSCI ACWI US Energy In
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Foreign
CHIQ Global X China Consumer ETF
DGF Delaware Inv Glbl Div & Inc Fd
FINANCIAL SERVICES Credit Services
AXP American Express Co
CPSS Consumer Portfolio Svcs
FINANCIAL SERVICES Diversified Investments
COBK Colonial Bankshares Inc
GJO Synthetic Fixed-Income Securit
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Wineries & Distill
STZ Constellation Brands Inc
FOOD & BEVERAGE Food - Major Diversified
YUII Yuhe International Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Health Care Plans
AET Aetna Inc New
CVH Coventry Health Care Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Hospitals
AMSG Amsurg Corp Common
HCA Hca Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Long-Term Care Facilities
ADK AdCare Health Systems Inc
GBR Cabeltel Intl Corp
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Appliances & Equipment
APT Alpha Pro Tech Ltd
BSDM BSD Medical Corp
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Instruments & Supplies
ABMD Abiomed Inc
ATRI Atrion Corporation
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Laboratories & Researc
ARRY Array Biopharma Inc
ASTM Aastrom Biosciences Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Specialized Health Services
HWAY Healthways Inc
INSURANCE Accident & Health Insurance
AIZ Assurant Inc
RE Everest Re Group Ltd.
INSURANCE Insurance Brokers
BRO Brown & Brown
EHTH Ehealth Inc
INSURANCE Life Insurance
AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd
EPAX Ambassadors Group Inc
INSURANCE Property & Casualty Insurance
CNA Cna Financial Corp
FRF Fortegra Financial Corporation
INSURANCE Surety & Title Insurance
ORI Old Republic Internat
TRH Transatlantic Hldgs
INTERNET Internet Information Providers
AOL AOL Incorporated
EXPE Expedia Inc
INTERNET Internet Software & Services
ABTL Autobytel Inc
BVSN Broadvision Inc
LEISURE Gaming Activities
PNK Pinnacle Entertainment
LEISURE Resorts & Casinos
MGM MGM MIRAGE Inc
MPEL Melco PBL Entertainment Ltd
LEISURE Restaurants
FRN Friendly Ice Cream Corp
GTIM Good Times Restaurant
MANUFACTURING Diversified Machinery
IR Ingersoll-rand Ltd Cl A
ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc
MANUFACTURING Industrial Electrical Equipmen
FELE Franklin Electric Co Inc
GB Greatbatch Inc
MANUFACTURING Industrial Equipment & Compone
CIR Circor International Inc
MAS Masco Corp
MANUFACTURING Machine Tools & Accessories
RBC Regal-Beloit Corp
TKR Timken Co
MANUFACTURING Metal Fabrication
MATW Matthews Internat Cp Cla
MINI Mobile Mini Inc
MANUFACTURING Pollution & Treatment Controls
DCI Donaldson Co Inc
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Cement
JHX James Hardie Industries Nv
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION General Building Materials
MCC Mestek Inc
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION General Contractors
USHS U.S. Home Systems Inc
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Residential Construction
AVTR Avatar Holdings Inc
MHO M/i Homes Inc
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Waste Management
ENV Cet Services Inc
TRIT Tri-Tech Holdings Inc
MEDIA Broadcasting - Radio
BBGI Beasley Broadcast Grp A
EMMS Emmis Communication Cl A
MEDIA Broadcasting - TV
NXST Nexstar Broadcasting Group
MEDIA Publishing - Periodicals/News
LEE Lee Enterprises Inc
PSO Pearson Plc Ads
METALS & MINING Aluminum
ACH Aluminum Corp China
METALS & MINING Copper
PD Phelps Dodge Corp
METALS & MINING Gold
NSU Nevsun Resources Ltd
RIC Richmont Mines Inc
METALS & MINING Industrial Metals & Minerals
USEG U.S. Energy Corp Wyo
METALS & MINING Steel & Iron
FRD Friedman Industries Inc
NX Quanex Corp
REAL ESTATE Mortgage Investment
DRL Doral Financial Corp
HTS Hatteras Financial Corp
REAL ESTATE Property Management/Developmen
BXG Bluegreen Corp
MAYS J.W. Mays Inc
REAL ESTATE REIT - Diversified/Industrial
AMB.M AMB Property Corp Preferred
ARH.A Arch Capital Group-Preferred
REAL ESTATE REIT - Hotel/Motel
HT Hersha Hospitality Trust
REAL ESTATE REIT - Office
ARE Alexandria Real Est Eqts
LSE Capital Lease Fundings Inc
REAL ESTATE REIT - Residential
AVB Avalonbay Communities
EQR Equity Residential
REAL ESTATE REIT - Retail
AKR Acadia Realty Trust
HIW.B Highwoods Properties Inc-Prefe
RETAIL Auto Parts Stores
PRTS U.S. Auto Parts Network
RETAIL Department Stores
DDS Dillard's Inc
SKS Saks Holdings Inc
RETAIL Electronics Stores
BBY Best Buy Co Inc
RSH Radioshack Corp
RETAIL Home Furnishing Stores
WSM Williams Sonoma Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Apparel Stores
CHS Chico's Fas Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Auto Dealerships
ABG Asbury Automotive
PAG Penske Automotive
SPECIALTY RETAIL Jewelry Stores
TIF Tiffany & Co
SPECIALTY RETAIL Music & Video Stores
TWMC Trans World Entertain Cp
SPECIALTY RETAIL Specialty Retail
BAMM Books-A-Million Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Communication Equipment
AVNW Harris Stratex Network
CALX Calix Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Diversified Communication Serv
CNTF China Techfaith Wireless Commu
RNET RigNet Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Telecom Services - Domestic
HTCO Hickory Tech Corp
TOBACCO Cigarettes
PM Philip Morris International
TOBACCO Tobacco Products
UST Ust Inc
TRANSPORTATION Air Delivery & Freight Service
UPS United Parcel Service B
TRANSPORTATION Air Services
AAWW Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings I
PAC Grupo Aeroportuario Pac S.A.B
TRANSPORTATION Regional Airlines
LFL Lan Chile Sa
SKYW Skywest Inc
TRANSPORTATION Shipping
DSX Diana Shipping Inc
PRGN Paragon Shipping Inc
TRANSPORTATION Trucking
FWRD Forward Air Corporation
YRCW YRC Worldwide Inc
UTILITIES Diversified Utilities
ED.C Consolidated Edison Inc-Prefer
MDU Mdu Resources Group Inc
UTILITIES Electric Utilities
ALP.O Alabama Power Company
BCON Beacon Power Corp
UTILITIES Gas Utilities
NJR New Jersey Resources Cp
UTILITIES Water Utilities
YORW York Water Corp
WHOLESALE Electronics Wholesale
ITRN Ituran Location and Control Lt
TESS Tessco Technologies Inc
WHOLESALE Industrial Equipment Wholesale
AIT Applied Industrial Tech
MSM Msc Industrial Direct A
WHOLESALE Wholesale
CAS A.M. Castle & Company
CEDC Central European Dist
--------------------------------------------
NEGATIVE VRs
--------------------------------------------
.. CANADIAN STOCKS ... Canadian Stocks
**** NONE ****
--------------------------------------------
U.S. STOCKS:
--------------------------------------------
AEROSPACE/DEFENSE Aerospace/Defense Major Dive
GD General Dynamics Corp
AEROSPACE/DEFENSE Aerospace/Defense Products & S
ATK Alliant Techsystems Inc
ITA iShares DJ US Aerospace & Def
AUTOMOTIVE Trucks & Other Vehicles
NNN.C Navistar International Corp-Pr
BANKING Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks
FWV First West Va Bancorp
SVBI Severn Bancorp Inc
BANKING Regional - Midwest Banks
TFSL TFS Financial Corp
BANKING Regional - Northeast Banks
CITZ Cfs Bancorp Inc
ESBK Elmira Savings Bank FSB
BANKING Regional - Pacific Banks
SIVB SVB Financial Group
WCBO West Coast Bancorp Ore
BANKING Regional - Southeast Banks
EVBS Easternnklin Bank N.a.
OZRK Bank Of The Ozarks Inc
BANKING Savings & Loans
CBNK Chicopee Bancorp Inc
CSBK Clifton Savings Bacorp
COMPUTER HARDWARE Data Storage Devices
DRAM Dataram Corp
COMPUTER HARDWARE Networking & Communication Dev
BBOX Black Box Corp
INPH Interphase Corp
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Application Software
AMAP Autonavi Holdings Limited
CA Computer Assoc Intl Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Business Software & Services
DOX Amdocs Ltd
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Information & Delivery Service
DST Dst Systems Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Information Technology Service
MNDO Mind C T I Ltd
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Security Software & Services
VDSI Vasco Data Security Intl
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Technical & System Software
PMTC Parametric Technology Cp
SPNS Sapiens Intl Corp Nv
CONSUMER DURABLES Electronic Equipment
PHG Koninklijke Philips Elec
CONSUMER DURABLES Housewares & Accessories
LANC Lancaster Colony Corp
CONSUMER DURABLES Photographic Equipment & Suppl
BTN Ballantyne Of Omaha Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Packaging & Containers
BMS Bemis Co Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Paper & Paper Products
RKT Rock-Tenn Co Cl A
SSCC Smurfit-Stone Container
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Personal Products
FHCO Female Health Company
SUMR Summer Infant Incorporated
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Rubber & Plastics
JAH Jarden Corp
SEH Spartech Corp
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Business/Management Services
CGX Consolidated Graphics
DIET Ediets.com Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Consumer Services
MNRO Monro Muffler Brake Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Personal Services
PPD Pre-Paid Legal Svcs Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Staffing & Outsourcing Service
CCRN Cross Country Healthcare
DRUGS Biotechnology
BTX Biotime Inc
DRUGS Diagnostic Substances
IDXX Idexx Laboratories Inc
DRUGS Drug Manufacturers - Major
OMER Omeros Corporation
DRUGS Drug Manufacturers - Other
BIOD Biodel Inc
CEPH Cephalon Inc
DRUGS Drug Related Products
TBV Tiens Biotech Group USA Inc
ELECTRONICS Diversified Electronics
BELFA Bel Fuse Inc Cl A
WSCI Wsi Industries Inc
ELECTRONICS Scientific & Technical Instrum
FLDM Fluidigm Corporation
MOCO Mocon Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Integrated Cir
PMCS Pmc-sierra Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Memory Chips
ISSI Integrated Silicon Sol
NETL Netlogic Microsystems Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Specialized
NVDA Nvidia Corporation
TRID Trident Microsystems Inc
ENERGY Independent Oil & Gas
PTF Petrofund Energy Trust
SNP China Petro & Chem Ads
ENERGY Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
DVR Cal Dive Intl Inc
GGS Global Geophysical Services
ENERGY Oil & Gas Pipelines
TZG Bear Stearns Dep Inc 7.125%
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Debt
ADRA BLDRS Asia 50 ADR Index Fund E
AFB Alliance National Muni Inc Fun
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Equity
AGA DB Agriculture Double Short ET
AWP Alpine Global Premier Properti
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Foreign
SNF Spain Fund Inc
TKF Turkish Invest Fd
FINANCIAL SERVICES Credit Services
ADS Alliance Data
CACC Credit Acceptance Corp
FINANCIAL SERVICES Diversified Investments
AUTC Autochina Intl Ltd Ord Shs
DFR Deerfield Triarc Capital Corp
FINANCIAL SERVICES Investment Brokerage - Nationa
CLMS Calamos Asset Management
FOOD & BEVERAGE Dairy Products
SYUT Synutra International
FOOD & BEVERAGE Meat Products
PZA Insured National Muni Bond
FOOD & BEVERAGE Processed & Packaged Goods
OFI Overhill Farms Inc
RAH Ralcorp Holdings Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Home Health Care
FVE Five Star Quality Care Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Hospitals
CCM Concord Med Srv Hldg Ltd
HEALTH SERVICES Long-Term Care Facilities
ALC Assisted Living Concepts Inc.
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Appliances & Equipment
CNMD Conmed Corp
DYNT Dynatronics Corp
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Instruments & Supplies
AIS Antares Pharma Inc
SDIX Strategic Diagnostics
HEALTH SERVICES Specialized Health Services
CONM Conmed Healthcare Management I
INSURANCE Accident & Health Insurance
GTS Triple-S Management Corporatio
INSURANCE Life Insurance
GNW Genworth Financial
INSURANCE Property & Casualty Insurance
BWINA Baldwin & Lyons Inc Cl A
DGICB Donegal Group Inc Class B
INTERNET Internet Information Providers
BITA Bitauto Holdings Limited
INSP Infospace Incorporated
INTERNET Internet Software & Services
SQI SCiQuest` Inc
ZIXI Zix Corporation
LEISURE Gaming Activities
BYI Bally Technologies Inc
MNTG Mtr Gaming Group Inc
LEISURE Restaurants
BAGL Einstein Noah Restaurant Group
NATH Nathan's Famous Inc
LEISURE Sporting Activities
TRK Speedway Motorsports Inc
MANUFACTURING Diversified Machinery
WUHN Wuhan General Group Inc
MANUFACTURING Farm & Construction Machinery
ASTE Astec Industries
MANUFACTURING Industrial Electrical Equipmen
AETI American Electric Technology I
MANUFACTURING Metal Fabrication
GEG Gbl Power Inc
MANUFACTURING Small Tools & Accessories
CVR Chicago Rivet & Machine
MANUFACTURING Textile Manufacturing
HWG Hallwood Group Inc
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION General Building Materials
AAON Aaon Inc
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION General Contractors
IESC Integrated Electrical Services
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Waste Management
GPRC Guanwei Recycling Corp
MEDIA Advertising Services
VCLK Valueclick Inc
MEDIA CATV Systems
TWC Time Warner Cable Inc
MEDIA Marketing Services
INUV Kowabunga Inc
MEDIA Movie Production
DWA Dreamworks Animation Skg
MEDIA Publishing - Periodicals/News
ENL Reed Elsevier Nv
SPRO Smartpros Ltd
METALS & MINING Industrial Metals & Minerals
RTI Rti Internat Metal Inc
REAL ESTATE Mortgage Investment
CMO.A Capstead Mortgage Corp-Preferr
CMO.B Capstead Mortgage Corp-Preferr
REAL ESTATE Property Management/Developmen
STRS Stratus Properties Inc
REAL ESTATE REIT - Diversified/Industrial
ABR Arbor Realty Trust Inc
DRE.J Duke Realty Corp-Preferred
REAL ESTATE REIT - Healthcare Facilities
HCP.E HCP Inc-Preferred
UHT Universal Health Realty Inc Tr
REAL ESTATE REIT - Hotel/Motel
SPPRO Supertel Hospitality Inc
REAL ESTATE REIT - Office
MPG Maguire Properties Inc
OFC.H Corporate Office Properties Tr
REAL ESTATE REIT - Residential
ARC Affordable Residential Comm
BRE.D BRE Properties Inc-Preferred
REAL ESTATE REIT - Retail
KIM.F Kimco Realty Corp-Preferred
RETAIL Department Stores
MAY May Department Stores Co
RETAIL Drug Stores
PETS Petmed Express Inc
RETAIL Grocery Stores
TFM The Fresh Market` Inc.
RETAIL Home Improvement Stores
HD Home Depot Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Apparel Stores
BODY Body Central Corp.
EXPR Express` Inc.
SPECIALTY RETAIL Jewelry Stores
DGSE Dgse Companies Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Specialty Retail
OSTK Overstock.com Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Sporting Goods Stores
WINA Winmark Corp
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Communication Equipment
ADTN Adtran Inc
ENWV Endwave Corporation
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Diversified Communication Serv
PCTI Pc-Tel Incorporated
RRST RRsat Glo Comm Network Ltd Ord
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Wireless Communications
GRRF China Grentech Corp Limited AD
TKC Turkcell Iletisim Hzmt As New
TRANSPORTATION Regional Airlines
LUV Southwest Airlines Co
TRANSPORTATION Shipping
GASS StealthGas Inc
TRANSPORTATION Trucking
XPO Express-1 Expedited Solutions
UTILITIES Diversified Utilities
CMS.B Consumers Energy Co-Preferred
ED.A Consolidated Edison Inc-Prefer
UTILITIES Electric Utilities
ELP Companhia Paranaense De
FE Firstenergy Corp
UTILITIES Foreign Utilities
CPL Cpfl Energia Sa
SBS Companhia De Saneamento B
UTILITIES Gas Utilities
EGAS Gas Natural Inc
RGCO Rgc Resources Inc
WHOLESALE Auto Parts Wholesale
CALI China Auto Logistics Inc
WHOLESALE Drugs Wholesale
NUS Nu Skin Enterprises
WHOLESALE Wholesale
MUSA Metals Usa Inc
--------------------------------------------
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Breaking from Moneynews.com
Investors Shifting to Cash From Commodities
Global investors have tempered their optimism about the U.S. and world economies and plan to put more of their money in cash and less in commodities over the next six months, a Bloomberg survey found.
Almost 1 in 3 of those questioned say they will hold more cash, while 30 percent intend to reduce investments in commodities, according to a quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll of 1,263 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers. Both results were the highest since the survey began asking the question last June.
A plurality -- 40 percent -- expects oil prices to fall in the next six months, the first time respondents felt that way since the inception of this poll in July 2009.
The "big stimulus game is over," said Bill O'Connor, a poll participant and founder of Sagg Main Capital hedge fund in New York, in explaining why he's moving money into cash as the Federal Reserve winds up its bond-buying program and U.S. lawmakers look to cut the budget.
Fewer than 4 in 10 of those surveyed described the U.S. and global economies as improving, down from about 50 percent who felt that way back in January. U.S. economic growth slowed to 1.8 percent in the first quarter of this year, down from 3.1 percent in the final three months of 2010. Home prices fell in more than three-quarters of U.S. cities in the first quarter of 2011, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The poll, conducted May 9-10, also found that investors' ardor for stocks is cooling. Two in 5 intend to increase their exposure to equity markets over the next six months, down from almost 3 in 5 in the last poll in January. U.S. investors in particular have become less keen on stocks: Just 37 percent say they are increasing their exposure, down from 57 percent in the previous poll.
The survey was taken after a turbulent week in the markets that saw commodity prices suffer their biggest decline in more than two years. The Standard & Poor's GSCI Total Return Index of 24 commodities dropped 11 percent last week, led by a 27 percent collapse in silver prices. The gauge fell 3.9 percent yesterday and another 0.9 percent by 9:29 a.m. in London today. Crude oil fell below $100 a barrel in New York trading yesterday.
More than half of those surveyed expect silver prices to fall further in the next six months. Sixteen percent identified commodities as one of the markets that will suffer the worst returns over the next year, more than double the proportion that said that in January.
Commodities have "become a bubble, with a lot of non- specialist investors," said Ken Welby, a salesman at KNG Securities LLP in London and a poll participant. "Demand cannot cope with the price rises that we have seen."
While the attractiveness of the U.S. is ebbing, it still comes out on top when survey participants are asked to name the best countries to invest in. Thirty-one percent cited the U.S. as among the markets that will offer the best returns over the next year, down from 37 percent in January.
U.S. investors are more enthusiastic about their country than those in either Europe or Asia. Almost 2 in 5 Americans picked the U.S. as a top market. Only one-third of Asians and less than a quarter of Europeans felt that way.
Brazil and China trailed the U.S. in the poll, with 1 in 4 investors citing those countries as good places to put money. Fifteen percent singled out Japan, almost double the amount that did so in January, before the country suffered a devastating earthquake and tsunami that left 24,837 dead or missing as of May 7 and cratered its stock market.
"We have confidence that the Japanese are addressing the issues, and that earnings will not disappoint the market," Welby said. "I see it as a relative-value trade."
More than 2 in 5 investors see Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average rising over the next six months. That compares with about 1 in 4 who said that back in January.
The Nikkei average yesterday rose 45.50, or 0.5 percent, to 9,864.26. That's down from 10,254.43 on March 11, the day of the earthquake. The gauge dropped 1.5 percent today.
Investors have turned less optimistic about other stock markets. Less than half see the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rising during the next six months; in January, almost two-thirds forecast an advance. About one-quarter in the latest poll say they expect the stock gauge to fall. The S&P 500 fell 1.1 percent to 1,342.08 yesterday in New York.
"U.S. stocks will have a 5 to 8 percent decline in the coming months," said Joe Larizza, a director at Vining Sparks IBG in Memphis, Tennessee, and a poll participant. "I see energy and food prices causing a drag on the economy."
Global investors still consider equities to be among the most lucrative places for their money, with more than 1 in 3 forecasting that stocks will provide superior returns over the next year.
Asian investors are the most confident in their regional economy, with 42 percent saying it is improving, compared with 31 percent of U.S. poll respondents and 26 percent of Europeans who feel that way about their areas.
Half of global investors forecast that the MSCI Asia Pacific Index will rise over the next six months, down from 58 percent in January. The index fell 1.6 percent to 136.23 today.
The European Union was seen by the most respondents as one of the markets offering the worst returns over the next year, with 38 percent singling it out, little changed from January. The turmoil-racked Middle East ranked second worst, with about 1 in 4 investors describing it that way, up from less than 1 in 10 in the previous poll.
About 1 in 3 investors see the Euro Stoxx 50 Index, a measure of shares in nations using the common currency, and the FTSE 100 Index rising in the next six months. That compares with more than 40 percent who forecast advances in January.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index fell 1.3 percent to 2,903.39 today. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index dropped 1 percent to 5,916.64.
More than half of those surveyed forecast that the dollar will strengthen against the euro over the next three months. The euro was little changed at $1.4202 today.
The quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll of investors, traders and analysts was conducted by Selzer & Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based firm. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
--------------------------------------------
Treasury to tap pensions to help fund government
The Obama administration will begin to tap federal retiree programs to help fund operations after the government loses its ability Monday to borrow more money from the public, adding urgency to efforts in Washington to fashion a compromise over the debt.
Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner has warned for months that the government would soon hit the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling - a legal limit on how much it can borrow. With the government poised to reach that limit Monday, Geithner is undertaking special measures in an effort to postpone the day when he will no longer have enough funds to pay all of the government's bills.
Geithner, who has already suspended a program that helps state and local government manage their finances, will begin to borrow from retirement funds for federal workers. The measure won't have an impact on retirees because the Treasury is legally required to reimburse the program.
The maneuver buys Geithner only a few months of time. If Congress does not vote to raise the debt limit by Aug. 2, Geithner says the government is likely to default on some of its obligations, which he says would cause enormous economic harm and the suspension of government services including the mailing of Social Security checks.
Many congressional Republicans, however, have been skeptical that breaching the Aug. 2 deadline would be as catastrophic as Geithner suggests. What's more, Republican leaders are insisting that Congress cut spending by as much as the Obama administration wants to raise the debt limit, without any new taxes. Obama is proposing spending cuts and tax increases to rein in the debt.
"Everything should be on the table, except raising taxes," House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) said on CBS's "Face the Nation." "Because raising taxes will hurt our economy and hurt our ability to create jobs in our country."
The Obama administration warns that it is dangerous to link the debt limit to other proposals. But Boehner is demanding that Congress use the debt vote as a way to bring down government spending.
"I'm ready to cut the deal today," Boehner said. "We don't have to wait until the 11th hour. But I am not going to walk away from this moment. We have a moment, a window of opportunity to act, because if we don't act, the markets are going to act for us."
Geithner's plan to tap federal retiree programs as a temporary means to avoid a government default comes as the Obama administration has shown growing interest in altering those programs to curb the debt in the long run.
Administration officials have expressed interest in raising the amount that federal employees contribute to their pensions, sources told The Washington Post.
The Republicans have suggested that the civilian workforce contribute more to its retirement in the future, effectively trimming 5 percent from salaries. The administration has not been willing to go that far in talks being led by Vice President Biden.
Treasury secretaries have tapped special programs to avoid default six times since 1985. The most protracted delay in raising the debt limit came in 1995 after congressional Republicans swept to power during the Clinton administration.
But today, the government needs far more money to cover its obligations than in the past, making the special measures less effective than they used to be. The government needs about $125 billion more a month than it takes in each month.
In a letter released last week to Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), Geithner wrote that a default would risk a "double-dip" recession.
"Default would not only increase borrowing costs for the federal government, but also for families, businesses and local governments - reducing investment and job creation throughout the economy," Geithner wrote.
But several prominent congressional Republicans have dismissed the Obama administration's assertion that the country would face dire consequences if Congress does not vote to raise the federal limit on government borrowing by August. Many of the skeptics are affiliated with the tea party.
In the Senate, freshman Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) has said the Obama administration has been exaggerating the effects of hitting the default mark. He says breaching the limit would cause only a partial government shutdown.
Other freshman Republicans have said that Geithner could raise money to avoid defaulting by selling investments in private companies. The Republican Study Committee, which represents more than 150 lawmakers, sent a letter to Geithner last week pressing for more details about the Aug. 2 deadline.
Steve Forbes: Gold Standard to Return in Five Years
The United States will likely go back on the gold standard within five years in order to correct fiscal and monetary imbalances, says former GOP presidential candidate and Forbes Magazine Publisher Steve Forbes.
The gold standard, under which the dollar is pegged to gold instead of other currencies as it is today, was abandoned by President Richard Nixon in 1971.
"What seems astonishing today could become conventional wisdom in a short period of time," says Forbes, according to Human Events, a conservative media website.
A return to the gold standard would stabilize the dollar by discouraging hefty fiscal spending as well as preventing the Federal Reserve from printing excess money.
"People know that something is wrong with the dollar," Forbes says, adding "you cannot trash your money without repercussions."
The dollar would not only be stronger today if the gold standard were in place, it would be less volatile.
Currency volatility has helped open the doors for speculators to invest in commodities as a hedge against swinging currency values, which has helped stoke inflationary concerns.
Under a gold standard, it is "much harder" for governments to borrow excessively like they are doing today, Forbes says.
The housing bubble, partly the product of loose monetary policy, would never have been so severe under a gold standard.
"When it comes to exchange rates and monetary policy, people often don't grasp" what is at stake for the economy, Forbes says.
By restoring the gold standard, the country would move away from "less responsible policies" and toward a stronger dollar and a stronger America, Forbes adds.
"If the dollar was as good as gold, other countries would want to buy it."
Talk of returning the country to the gold standard has risen in recent months.
Sean Fieler and Jeffrey Bell, respectively the chairman and policy director of the American Principles Project, say resurrecting the gold standard can tame the Federal Reserve's money-printing campaign.
"Members of Congress seeking to restrict the Fed's power need to consider what oppositional force is truly capable of hemming it in," the two write in recent The Wall Street Journal editorial.
"One answer is a revived gold standard, which would once again obligate the Fed to redeem dollars for gold at a fixed rate."
With the dollar weakening and with the Fed in no hurry to change its policies, gold has been soaring.
Precious metals often do when paper currencies soften.
VRTrader Update
Started by
TTHQ Staff
, May 16 2011 03:50 PM
No replies to this topic