s-o-o-o-o close...
#1
Posted 03 February 2005 - 05:02 PM
#2
Posted 04 February 2005 - 10:34 AM
with the distance between the fast line and the signal line on the right chart, and no positive divergence on the fast line, the hook that appeared on it near the close would not be a SAR signal in and of itself.
and as with yesterday's close, today's close also hooked the signal line on the middle chart (15-min ES), not allowing a close above the DTL, which could have given a SAR signal, with the hook of the fast line on the right chart, even without the postive divergence.
now tomorrow could gap upwards in response to 'good' economic numbahs, and if so, this signal could end up not making anything on this swing... or even taking a small loss...
but...
i won't have any regrets for doing what the signal said to do, as most will win, some will lose... but that's the name of the game.
we'll what tomorrow brings.
--tsharp
chart attached
needless to say, with my swing system being right on the cusp of a possible SAR at the close yesterday, all it took was a positive open with at least ten minutes or so of holding power to trigger a SAR this morning, and it did...
as of 9:40 my short-term momentum model signalled a SAR back to a buy at ES 1191.0, for +3.0 on the last swing.
now we're back up at the ST resistance range of spx ~1195, but now in what appears to be a Ro4 (rule of four) pattern, which seems to suggest that the market should be able to push on through after a brief pause... but as always... twt.
chart later.
--tsharp
p.s. if the spx can't push through this range, it would likely be viewed as a reason to begin selling... so don't take anything for granted.
#3
Posted 04 February 2005 - 11:06 AM
with the distance between the fast line and the signal line on the right chart, and no positive divergence on the fast line, the hook that appeared on it near the close would not be a SAR signal in and of itself.
and as with yesterday's close, today's close also hooked the signal line on the middle chart (15-min ES), not allowing a close above the DTL, which could have given a SAR signal, with the hook of the fast line on the right chart, even without the postive divergence.
now tomorrow could gap upwards in response to 'good' economic numbahs, and if so, this signal could end up not making anything on this swing... or even taking a small loss...
but...
i won't have any regrets for doing what the signal said to do, as most will win, some will lose... but that's the name of the game.
we'll what tomorrow brings.
--tsharp
chart attached
needless to say, with my swing system being right on the cusp of a possible SAR at the close yesterday, all it took was a positive open with at least ten minutes or so of holding power to trigger a SAR this morning, and it did...
as of 9:40 my short-term momentum model signalled a SAR back to a buy at ES 1191.0, for +3.0 on the last swing.
now we're back up at the ST resistance range of spx ~1195, but now in what appears to be a Ro4 (rule of four) pattern, which seems to suggest that the market should be able to push on through after a brief pause... but as always... twt.
chart later.
--tsharp
p.s. if the spx can't push through this range, it would likely be viewed as a reason to begin selling... so don't take anything for granted.
this appears to be the breakout, though i would suspect that we could also see a back-test of that line of resistance... but a back-test isn't necessary.
#4
Posted 04 February 2005 - 01:32 PM
#5
Posted 04 February 2005 - 02:05 PM
gold has 200MA and .618 fib of last year's range around 410
XAU has it's .618 fib at 90, so above 90 monday we could roll...it's also the monthly R1 zone
le longe bonde has a monthly numbah at 116-11
i always find this worth reading in the morning -----> http://quotes.ino.co...alysis/markets/
#6
Posted 09 February 2005 - 01:02 PM
now we seem to be in a solid 60min down for your SPX on 'weird wollie wednesday', which is the wednesday before options expiration, named after our own 'da_chief' when way back when he postulated many big boyz will roll options on this day, thus bringing volatility
arch is on cnbc 2:20pm et, so maybe he'll give a date for his 'crash' stuff over in forum 45---->
http://traders-talk....showtopic=29565
QQQQ weekly r1= 37.25 and COMPX major fib at 2058, first nibbles long there with stop below the round numbahs 37-2050 ....volume very low on shake at 47mil at 1pm et
die die die, that bond is much too high
#7
Posted 09 February 2005 - 01:05 PM
#8
Posted 10 February 2005 - 08:30 AM
#9
Posted 10 February 2005 - 08:37 AM