breadth is confirming
but vix is not as it is down
what do you guys think
Nasty breakdown coming.
Started by
ogm
, Jan 09 2009 08:09 AM
23 replies to this topic
#12
IndexTrader
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Posted 09 January 2009 - 10:26 AM
910 is an important number for me on the ES, for what it's worth. If it can get above there and hold, we may be in for another attempt at the highs. Right now as I type we're flopping just above and below it.
IT
Uh, yes...nice. Died at 910.
I see chop and I don't like my edge on the short side, even as I'm open to and expecting some weakness here.
It's needed.
Mark
I knew it was important...but WOW, that was something else.
IT
#13
OEXCHAOS
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Mark S. Young
Posted 09 January 2009 - 10:44 AM
Just smile confidently like you expected it all along.
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#14
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Posted 09 January 2009 - 10:46 AM
Just smile confidently like you expected it all along.
M
Yeah, I definitely need to get more professional.
IT
#15
ogm
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Posted 09 January 2009 - 11:10 AM
I know I am late in saying this, but I have reduced my long exposure in various accounts, because the WIND HAS CHANGED.
In Nov/Dec, we have rally ignoring all the bad economic news. This tells you market want to rally regardless. But since start of the new year week, the market seems to respect the bad news, i.e. bad news is bad news. Now, you are expecting the market to continue rally past the coming 1 month of on-slaught bad news?
Anyone realize there a few states unemployment hotlines were crashed this week due to 10-times increment than normal weekly claims? NY, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky .... good luck next week.
Agree completely. Bad news matters. Second month in a row with 500k job losses.... CNBC keeps taking about how its priced in, I'm saying that this hasn't even started having the real economic effect yet. And what is worse more layoffs coming. Whats the rush to rally ?
Obama's plan is supposed to generate 3 mil jobs in a perfect world. Guess what .. we lost 3 mil jobs in the past 12 month. And no one knows how many jobs will be lost this year.
The past 2 month we lost 1 mil jobs alone. That will hit retail sales, etc in the coming month like a truck. Foreclosures and consumer credit defaults also haven't reflected the full extent of this yet. The economic damage is only starting, not ending.
Its the magnitude and duration of the bad news that is going to pressure the market.
Edited by ogm, 09 January 2009 - 11:11 AM.
#16
pdx5
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I want return OF my money more than return ON my money
Posted 09 January 2009 - 11:28 AM
I still beleive SPX 850 will be seen in the next 2-3 days. SPX 918-20 is the critical resistance. As long as we trade below that, sitting tight will make more money than flipping around.
Matches my thinking at this point. No point rushing into longs without a breakout.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule
#17
Lysis
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Posted 09 January 2009 - 11:46 AM
I still beleive SPX 850 will be seen in the next 2-3 days. SPX 918-20 is the critical resistance. As long as we trade below that, sitting tight will make more money than flipping around.
Matches my thinking at this point. No point rushing into longs without a breakout.
Breakouts haven't been working for the last few months.
#18
Data
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Posted 09 January 2009 - 11:47 AM
William O'Neill - "be wary of fourth stage breakouts"
#19
linrom1
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Posted 09 January 2009 - 12:01 PM
When you look at the market, it's nothing more than a confidence game. It operates in the same way as our monetary scheme where money only increases when consumers request more debt. Majority has been programmed to believe that saving or getting market return is possible: it is not.
#20
ogm
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Posted 09 January 2009 - 12:21 PM
When you look at the market, it's nothing more than a confidence game. It operates in the same way as our monetary scheme where money only increases when consumers request more debt. Majority has been programmed to believe that saving or getting market return is possible: it is not.
Bear markets = confidence is shot. Mutual fund and hedfund withdrawals are continuing. No new money coming into the market.
And yet we have this constant attempts to buy bad news last few days = complacency.
Hedgefunds have managed to slowdown the outflows by blocking withdrawals temprarirly. Guess what... they are going to be sued relentlessly over the next few month by people who are trying to get their money back. The money will be withdrawn one way or another.
And mutual funds will just keep on bleeding as 401k contributions dry up and withdrawals mount.
No new money = market will keep erroding, while people are trying to buy bad news. Yes, tyhey'll bid it up for a couple hours, but then the black hole will take its toll.
