Jump to content



Photo

Martin Armstrong: The Coming Great Depression


  • Please log in to reply
30 replies to this topic

#21 MaryAM

MaryAM

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,148 posts

Posted 12 January 2009 - 12:21 PM

I am sure people on this forum are getting tired of my umpteen posts harping
on the debt load in this country.

No country or individual can prosper by acquiring debt for consumption of goods and services.
May be we need a kick in the [bleeep] in the form of a depression and crashing of the dollar to wean
ourselves from this habit. I hope it does not come to that.


The lady in front of me at the grocery store on Saturday paid for over $300 worth of food with a credit card. I always write a check and pay for groceries - with one exception a few years ago when I discovered I was out of checks - but paid that credit card charge the next day. One thinkg however I hve noticed - I am not getting pre- approved credit card applications by the dozens every week.

#22 Frankie

Frankie

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 211 posts

Posted 12 January 2009 - 12:40 PM

I am sure people on this forum are getting tired of my umpteen posts harping
on the debt load in this country.

No country or individual can prosper by acquiring debt for consumption of goods and services.
May be we need a kick in the [bleeep] in the form of a depression and crashing of the dollar to wean
ourselves from this habit. I hope it does not come to that.


The lady in front of me at the grocery store on Saturday paid for over $300 worth of food with a credit card. I always write a check and pay for groceries - with one exception a few years ago when I discovered I was out of checks - but paid that credit card charge the next day. One thinkg however I hve noticed - I am not getting pre- approved credit card applications by the dozens every week.



#23 Frankie

Frankie

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 211 posts

Posted 12 January 2009 - 12:52 PM

I am sure people on this forum are getting tired of my umpteen posts harping
on the debt load in this country.

No country or individual can prosper by acquiring debt for consumption of goods and services.
May be we need a kick in the [bleeep] in the form of a depression and crashing of the dollar to wean
ourselves from this habit. I hope it does not come to that.


The lady in front of me at the grocery store on Saturday paid for over $300 worth of food with a credit card. I always write a check and pay for groceries - with one exception a few years ago when I discovered I was out of checks - but paid that credit card charge the next day. One thinkg however I hve noticed - I am not getting pre- approved credit card applications by the dozens every week.

The sad thing is seeing lots of people being rejected for food by maxing out their credit cards.

#24 tradermama

tradermama

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 909 posts

Posted 12 January 2009 - 01:00 PM

I am sure people on this forum are getting tired of my umpteen posts harping
on the debt load in this country.

No country or individual can prosper by acquiring debt for consumption of goods and services.
May be we need a kick in the [bleeep] in the form of a depression and crashing of the dollar to wean
ourselves from this habit. I hope it does not come to that.


The lady in front of me at the grocery store on Saturday paid for over $300 worth of food with a credit card. I always write a check and pay for groceries - with one exception a few years ago when I discovered I was out of checks - but paid that credit card charge the next day. One thinkg however I hve noticed - I am not getting pre- approved credit card applications by the dozens every week.


Hi MaryAm...paying for your groceries with a credit card doesn't mean anything...I've been doing that for years accumulating my Hilton points which gets me to Europe for 3 weeks at a time..and I pay it off monthly..I have no debt..I put all my purchases thru my Hilton American Express. And I know a lot of people who do it this way for that reason too - point accumulation. In fact, I"m going to Italy in March staying at the Hilton Sorrento. It's all about knowing how to manage one's expenses. I also like using the credit card for safety reasons too. But of course, it is important to pay it off monthly Ciao,
Irene

#25 HoseB

HoseB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,061 posts

Posted 12 January 2009 - 01:02 PM

"...we will only get a depression if the world's CBs want one...."


All the greater argument FOR depression! Asset values would plummet... those with cash scoop up the bargains. Who is more likely than the CBs to have cash then?
40,000 headmen couldn't make me change my mind....

#26 linrom1

linrom1

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 875 posts

Posted 12 January 2009 - 03:27 PM

Russ, Wasn't MA expecting some kind of historic peak around 2040? If so, wouldn't his latest essay citing 23-26 Depressioniary Cycle represent a dramatic shift in his thinking about LT economic confidence cycle?

Edited by linrom1, 12 January 2009 - 03:30 PM.

Pax Americana... ♫ nada como los Ramones ♪ ♬... !PLAY ME !

America still pretends it is not a bankster-controlled despotic regime, in which the wealth of the middle class is funneled every day into the Wall Street/Propaganda ponzi- ZH

#27 Russ

Russ

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 5,404 posts

Posted 12 January 2009 - 04:03 PM

Russ,

Wasn't MA expecting some kind of historic peak around 2040? If so, wouldn't his latest essay citing 23-26 Depressioniary Cycle represent a dramatic shift in his thinking about LT economic confidence cycle?



Hi linrom1,

Actually the economic confidence model is made up of the 8.6 year pi cycle but the bigger component of it is the 51.6 year cycle which is 8.6 times 6, as noted by the Astronet site the half point of the 51.6 is 26 and that hit in early 2007 along with the 8.6 year. Interesting that the number 26 was very important to the Mayan's and also as Armstrong pointed out the number for gosh as derived from the jewish word Jehova (when alphabets also represented numbers).

But back to the confidence model, the private 51.6 year cycle which we are in now and started in 1981 will peak in 2032 and end in 2037. It was my understanding that confidence would remain with the private markets until 2032 and therefore the stock markets would keep rising into that time period. What Armstrong is writing now seems to be throwing all that into serious question. Although I know that since the early 1990's at least he had been pesimistic about things after his 1998.55 date which did end up showing the internal high in the US stock markets for the dot com era, this can be seen on the value line geometric index XVG on stockcharts.com which is supposed to show what the average stock is doing. He stated in the early 1990's that we were headed for a major international debt crisis, that we were going to live major economic history, so I think his view was that after 1998 things would start to get critical and as I said in a 1999 article on my blog he said that it would be obvious that by late 2007 everything was not ok.

So bottom line... if confidence in the government bond markets is lost in this private wave then perhaps that is appropriate behaviour for a private wave, people would stop having trust in government to manage tax dollars and more private trends would emerge. Another thing to note is what he says about the government bonds, the view that they are not part of M1 is wrong, it is still a form of printing money, the debts are incurred and the interest rate time bomb starts to tick away.

That was a good observation of yours that Armstrong pointing out that letting interest rates go to usereous levels is what led to the massive debt we now have and the strained US workers as well as offshore manufacturing. Action and then reaction. It is too late to fix it now, the horses have escaped from the barn, the plane has hit the mountain. It is now just damage control that will be the future.

I like your avatar btw. B)
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#28 linrom1

linrom1

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 875 posts

Posted 12 January 2009 - 04:33 PM

BTW, I remember you from Longwaves. I was just a lurker then.
Pax Americana... ♫ nada como los Ramones ♪ ♬... !PLAY ME !

America still pretends it is not a bankster-controlled despotic regime, in which the wealth of the middle class is funneled every day into the Wall Street/Propaganda ponzi- ZH

#29 Russ

Russ

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 5,404 posts

Posted 12 January 2009 - 06:20 PM

BTW, I remember you from Longwaves. I was just a lurker then.



Ok, quite awhile ago. I meant to type gosh above not gosh btw... lol
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#30 Russ

Russ

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 5,404 posts

Posted 13 January 2009 - 11:50 AM

It is the software on running this site that prevents you from using the word for deity - g_d, so gosh shows up.

Edited by Russ, 13 January 2009 - 11:51 AM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/