Surprise!
#1
Posted 26 January 2009 - 10:16 AM
Guys, this is better than I expected.
There's a tsunami of cash about to hit this economy and this market. Maybe the first waves are coming?
Look at gold.
Why didn't they kill it on Friday? They "should" have. It was a no brainer.
Something has changed.
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
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#2
Posted 26 January 2009 - 10:20 AM
#3
Posted 26 January 2009 - 10:25 AM
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
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#4
Posted 26 January 2009 - 10:42 AM
Edited by ogm, 26 January 2009 - 10:46 AM.
#5
Posted 26 January 2009 - 10:50 AM
Edited by NAV, 26 January 2009 - 10:54 AM.
#6
Posted 26 January 2009 - 11:08 AM
Something has changed.
vow! undeletable!
#7
Posted 26 January 2009 - 11:09 AM
#8
Posted 26 January 2009 - 11:11 AM
Mark,
I respectfully disagree with your premise, that the economic activity (in this case the home sales) precedes or will act as a catalyst to stock market advance. Let the stock market show the way.
The only tsunami i see is the "tsunami of job losses hitting the shore everyday". Maybe they are just lagging indicators
Jobs have NOTHING to do with the stock market. They're always lagging anyway.
CASH does have much more to do with the stock market.
Right now, the market needs a lot more visibility than normal. If you look or think back to past nasty markets, it has been the same way. That's all I'm saying about fundamentals affecting the market.
I'm saying that the cash is coming and it's huge and going to get huger. There's no place for it to go, really, so a big chunk is going to hit the stock market. Give folks a bit of hope and billions upon billions that are earning nil will come flooding back into the stock market.
So, while technicals lead (say, why didn't the market get creamed on Friday?), now is the time to watch out for hints of good news that folks can hang their hats on. It matters now. It won't when things are looking better.
Mark
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
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#9
Posted 26 January 2009 - 11:12 AM
#10
Posted 26 January 2009 - 11:15 AM
Russ Winter has a great piece on housing. If anyone knows him he has a great grasp on macros....and is NOT a cheerleader for any camp (bulls or bears). He basically makes a case the housing is approacing a turning point the the LT data is now beginning to show a light at the end of the tunnel. Some areas of the country could well bottom by the end of this year.
The macro picture isn't so bleak. I think the key is now new starts. As long as it stays around or below 800k or so we know we're working off inventory...and that's a pessimistic or conservatively slanted viewpoint. There's a 500k rate necessary to just stay even (demolitions, condemnations, etc). Then you have to add in new household formations.
Right. And it's not all sugar-plums, either. But no market goes all one way all the time.
M
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
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