41 replies to this topic

[arbman]

894 must be taken down, but I don't think it will be difficult, this is probably it. [ref: 1]

[arbman]

There won't be another rally beginning before the interest rates come back down, it means deflation, Fed is unable to control it.

It is really ********.

So I take it that you're no longer looking for the drop to 850/875 and than a hundred points euphoric rally into early June to finish this phase of the rally?

I don't think it will happen, but I would like to see 894 taken with momentum... This is similar to Feb 12 2009 and June 6 2008, imvho.

[rkd80]

arb, so just to be clear - you are seeing equities respond negatively to the overall bond market meltdown, not because there might be a relief rally in bonds causing asset rotation?

[arbman]

The bonds are bottoming in my opinion for some time, the stocks though will have to decline more, this is how it happened for the entire bear market, unless it has changed. I posted about this on last Saturday.

Edit: what you are saying is certainly possible, another rally attempt with the bonds bouncing etc, but I think the trend is now broken according to my cycle projection.

Edited by arbman, 27 May 2009 - 01:58 PM.

[rkd80]

The bonds are bottoming in my opinion for some time, the stocks though will have to decline more, this is how it happened for the entire bear market, unless it has changed. I posted about this on last Saturday.

Edit: what you are saying is certainly possible, another rally attempt with the bonds bouncing etc, but I think the trend is now broken according to my cycle projection.

Fascinating situation really, we have two timeframes overlapping and both impact stocks negatively.

[arbman]

If I am seeing this right this bounce will be brutally sold below 894 into the close, which would take out the Monday's rally or very left translated 6 day cycle top. ES June should not rally above 902.5 by 15:30, which is enough to drop 10 points into the close at least...

Edited by arbman, 27 May 2009 - 02:09 PM.

[rkd80]

If I am seeing this right this bounce will be brutally sold below 894 into the close, which would take out the Monday's rally or very left translated 6 day cycle top. ES June should not rally above 902.5 by 15:30, which is enough to drop 10 points into the close at least...

Yeah sigh, shouldnt have been futzing around with my short. Gonna be a nasty close, about 80% sure.

[arbman]

900s are probably gone for the quarter...

[rkd80]

900s are probably gone for the quarter...

What do you make of the now glaring divergency between NDX and SPX?

[arbman]

NDX underperformed the entire rally, so the money is rotating into it on the way down, it is long term bullish, but it doesn't mean anything for this decline. I think this decline will not be over before the rates stabilize. They went parabolic very similar to the previous tops.