39 replies to this topic

[MoneyFriend]

There's more volume up there than you think.

Going back a bit too far for to be useful imo, but to each their own. Using that many years and expecting it to work for support and resistance is presuming that most of the holders from years past are still holding or interested in defending those levels, imo. I think it's safe to say that the volume profile from last year or 2 reflects well enough where vested interest is, don't feel as confident that 4+ years back is relevant to s/r.

Either way those 5 year profiles you posted look bullish to me as well, just not as bullish. The capital P on the Nasdaq is a particularly bullish profile.

Edited by MoneyFriend, 06 June 2009 - 01:19 PM.

[MoneyFriend]

This is what I'm touching on here Russ, All the dow needs to Dow is hold up this month and it is a raging buy signal imo, as it's monthly mean would have made a higher high.

Edited by MoneyFriend, 06 June 2009 - 01:18 PM.

[MoneyFriend]

spielchekr...

Here is the same period chart as yours but with better detail on the profile, I wish stockcharts had better volume by price detail.

http://bigcharts.mar...mocktick=1;.png

still looks like air up there to me.

Edited by MoneyFriend, 06 June 2009 - 01:34 PM.

[Russ]

Gannglobal is letting non-subscribers view their videos for a limited time can be seen here...
http://www.ganngloba...-market-videos/

As I said, history suggests we are going to have a test of support, most likely now. The picture below shows likely targets.

[MoneyFriend]

Gannglobal is letting non-subscribers view their videos for a limited time can be seen here...
http://www.ganngloba...-market-videos/

As I said, history suggests we are going to have a test of support, most likely now. The picture below shows likely targets.

I've seen this before.
I just showed you a chart above of the Dow (made it today in excel especially for you) and gave you simple reasons ( starting at post 10) why history suggests it doesn't play out gg's way. What do you make of that?

Edited by MoneyFriend, 06 June 2009 - 02:14 PM.

[IYB]

The internal divergences are strong now, look at how the nymo has broken down, also look at IYB's indicators which have gone to a sell now, IYB has a very strong track record with these. If the XMI breaks above the trendline it has hit, you will be right. The Canadian dollar is also reversing now, that is tied in closely with commoditities. As gannglobal.com has documented in their recent videos, the 'dna' of past markets (looking back hundreds of years) similar to now indicates that a correction is most probable. The stats are highly against the market going higher now before a correction in their view, even though they think we have entered a new bull market longer term, but history shows that a test of the lows is most likely now, so in my view the coming test will be critical as to whether the economy move up from here or not, it the March lows are broken then more trouble will follow obviously.

The nymo was diverging through almost all of 03 as well. I respect IYB's system and it has done well since I've been reading FF, but do not know if it has been reliable at the start of a new bull, not sure what it would have acted like in '03 for instance.

In April/May 2003 I was, as said below, shouting Bull Market! from the rooftops. Perhaps I can retrieve some of the old "Four Faithful Friends" posts, for example. SS's were exactly right then, but most importantly, CONTEXT was exactly right to support a new primary bull market. We easily broke through the 55 week MA of price which in turn turned UP--precisely because the market had done the necessary work over preceding 9 months to support that upurn. PRECISE OPPOSITE OF TODAY's CONDITIONS, which are much more like Fall of 2001 or summer of 2002. Regards,

[MoneyFriend]

In April/May 2003 I was, as said below, shouting Bull Market! from the rooftops. Perhaps I can retrieve some of the old "Four Faithful Friends" posts, for example. SS's were exactly right then, but most importantly, CONTEXT was exactly right to support a new primary bull market. We easily broke through the 55 week MA of price which in turn turned UP--precisely because the market had done the necessary work over preceding 9 months to support that upurn. PRECISE OPPOSITE OF TODAY's CONDITIONS, which are much more like Fall of 2001 or summer of 2002. Regards,

Thanks IYB, I'd be interested in seeing those for sure. In April I also felt we were in a 2001-2002 situation, now I think it is a lot more like 03. The VIX, extreme jump in market breadth, bond market action, efficiency of this rally, global markets, volume profiles, etc etc all tell me it's for real this time. I'm not going to bother waiting for that 55 week MA to confirm, if this is a real bull right here and now - by the time it does confirm it will have missed half the move.

Edited by MoneyFriend, 06 June 2009 - 02:31 PM.

[goldswinger]

IWV is also cooked (it's probably medium well now, may need one more day up with a DOJI), but it's done as most indices are. We are about to complete a wave 5 of 5 in Elliot terms...................................consistent with reversals in the Euro, the Dollar, OIL and Commodities. It is a major turn!. No bells or alarms are sounding though as it typically happens. Chart attached.

http://stockcharts.c...amp;a=170158500

Goldswinger.

[Russ]

Gannglobal is letting non-subscribers view their videos for a limited time can be seen here...
http://www.ganngloba...-market-videos/

As I said, history suggests we are going to have a test of support, most likely now. The picture below shows likely targets.

I've seen this before.
I just showed you a chart above of the Dow (made it today in excel especially for you) and gave you simple reasons ( starting at post 10) why history suggests it doesn't play out gg's way. What do you make of that?

MF, I don't understand why you think the market will go towards those volume bars. Perhaps you have some past corelative evidence?

[IYB]

In April/May 2003 I was, as said below, shouting Bull Market! from the rooftops. Perhaps I can retrieve some of the old "Four Faithful Friends" posts, for example. SS's were exactly right then, but most importantly, CONTEXT was exactly right to support a new primary bull market. We easily broke through the 55 week MA of price which in turn turned UP--precisely because the market had done the necessary work over preceding 9 months to support that upurn. PRECISE OPPOSITE OF TODAY's CONDITIONS, which are much more like Fall of 2001 or summer of 2002. Regards,

I'm not going to bother waiting for that 55 week MA to confirm, if this is a real bull right here and now - by the time it does confirm it will have missed half the move.

And that was my point below. It is fear of missing a big up move that is behind this "new bull market" thesis. The evidence argues the opposite based on my years of experience. Context is everything. But on what that context is ---- we will just have to agree to disagree, and that's okay by me. Best to you, D