37 replies to this topic

[zoropb]

The Trophy Wife and I are ready...

Poor lady lost her money to that Madoff snake. What a piece of human garbage that guy is. He got off easy.

[ed rader]

The Trophy Wife and I are ready...

Poor lady lost her money to that Madoff snake. What a piece of human garbage that guy is. He got off easy.

he'll die in prison. at least he wasn't allowed to die at home after protracted legal delays like kenny boy .

ed rader

Edited by ed rader, 30 June 2009 - 04:20 PM.

[nimblebear]

[quote name='zoropb' date='Jun 30 2009, 02:53 PM' post='466979']
[quote name='milbank' post='466975' date='Jun 30 2009, 04:40 PM']The Trophy Wife and I are ready...
[img]http://the60sofficialsite.com/images/Anim_Homepage.gif[/img :lol: :lol:


GREEEEEN Acres is the place to be. Farm living is the life for me. Laaaaaaannnnd stretching out so far and wide,......... just give me that country life..... :banana:

[IndexTrader]

Inflation is the herd's consensus. That's scary...

Looks like we're still deflating for now:

Home prices post 18.1 percent annual drop in April

"Consumer prices fall in Europe for the first time since 1996. U.K. reports poor economic news, but is optimistic."

Gene Inger:
"The other night we again highlighted parallels between the Great Depression of the 1930s and this current Great Recession+. Others compared the fall in US Industrial Production from its mid-1929 and late-2007 peaks, showing that it has been milder this time. They thus conclude that things are resolving. Well, absolutely the shock or systemic aspect is behind; but if you look at some other historical patterns, or the real important story given scant coverage this week (Japan sinking into near-Deflation of an historical proportion), you might arrive at a conclusion other than the more typical 'severe recession', or 'great recession', and something closer to our term 'Controlled Depression', which is how we've described the evolution of our work, which believes that while we will get out of this mess in-time; much current optimism is misleading.

One economist refers to the current situation, with characteristic black humor, as only "half a Great Depression." Recently we showed the well-circulated 'Four Bad Bears' graph comparing the Dow in 1929-30 and S&P 500 in 2008-9. It shows the US stock market since late 2007 falling just about as fast as in 1929-30; with the last rebound a bit more extensive (which we thought it might be particularly in financials and oils too; because some things are different this time; as some other things are possibly worse, like the insanity of trying to spend our way out of deficits by magnifying those deficits)
Aside growing Deflation in Japan or parts of Europe; the big story that nobody seems to extrapolate on a National basis, is California.
Consumers are wounded; commercial property issues are barely surfaced; we are resetting to the 'new paradigm' which everyone calls the 'new normal', and that has a multiple valuation quotient to it as well. For that reason we cannot remove risk from the plate at this time, and believe actually that irrespective of the next couple weeks, it remains an issue."

Of course, oil has risen from $30 to $70 the last few months. How's that for "deflation"?

IT

[salsabob]

To print our way out of deflation, one needs to assume that more printed dollars will lead to more aggregate demand, shifting the AD line out past Y1 -


some evidence that this s not happening -





or more simply -


Who knows if demand will turn around - its psychological!

this may be more interesting -



- as the author notes - "The last time we got a -2.42 standard deviation between confidence and the market, things got real ugly, real fast"

http://feedproxy.goo...divergence.html

And as one commentator noted -

"Keep in mind that it is always darkest right before it is pitch f----ing black."

[ed rader]

Inflation is the herd's consensus. That's scary...

Looks like we're still deflating for now:

Home prices post 18.1 percent annual drop in April

"Consumer prices fall in Europe for the first time since 1996. U.K. reports poor economic news, but is optimistic."

Gene Inger:
"The other night we again highlighted parallels between the Great Depression of the 1930s and this current Great Recession+. Others compared the fall in US Industrial Production from its mid-1929 and late-2007 peaks, showing that it has been milder this time. They thus conclude that things are resolving. Well, absolutely the shock or systemic aspect is behind; but if you look at some other historical patterns, or the real important story given scant coverage this week (Japan sinking into near-Deflation of an historical proportion), you might arrive at a conclusion other than the more typical 'severe recession', or 'great recession', and something closer to our term 'Controlled Depression', which is how we've described the evolution of our work, which believes that while we will get out of this mess in-time; much current optimism is misleading.

One economist refers to the current situation, with characteristic black humor, as only "half a Great Depression." Recently we showed the well-circulated 'Four Bad Bears' graph comparing the Dow in 1929-30 and S&P 500 in 2008-9. It shows the US stock market since late 2007 falling just about as fast as in 1929-30; with the last rebound a bit more extensive (which we thought it might be particularly in financials and oils too; because some things are different this time; as some other things are possibly worse, like the insanity of trying to spend our way out of deficits by magnifying those deficits)
Aside growing Deflation in Japan or parts of Europe; the big story that nobody seems to extrapolate on a National basis, is California.
Consumers are wounded; commercial property issues are barely surfaced; we are resetting to the 'new paradigm' which everyone calls the 'new normal', and that has a multiple valuation quotient to it as well. For that reason we cannot remove risk from the plate at this time, and believe actually that irrespective of the next couple weeks, it remains an issue."

Of course, oil has risen from $30 to $70 the last few months. How's that for "deflation"?

IT

actually oil is down from $147 .

many tech stocks i follow are "up" 100-200% from their world-is-ending lows.

ed rader

[zoropb]

Inflation is the herd's consensus. That's scary...

Looks like we're still deflating for now:

Home prices post 18.1 percent annual drop in April

"Consumer prices fall in Europe for the first time since 1996. U.K. reports poor economic news, but is optimistic."

Gene Inger:
"The other night we again highlighted parallels between the Great Depression of the 1930s and this current Great Recession+. Others compared the fall in US Industrial Production from its mid-1929 and late-2007 peaks, showing that it has been milder this time. They thus conclude that things are resolving. Well, absolutely the shock or systemic aspect is behind; but if you look at some other historical patterns, or the real important story given scant coverage this week (Japan sinking into near-Deflation of an historical proportion), you might arrive at a conclusion other than the more typical 'severe recession', or 'great recession', and something closer to our term 'Controlled Depression', which is how we've described the evolution of our work, which believes that while we will get out of this mess in-time; much current optimism is misleading.

One economist refers to the current situation, with characteristic black humor, as only "half a Great Depression." Recently we showed the well-circulated 'Four Bad Bears' graph comparing the Dow in 1929-30 and S&P 500 in 2008-9. It shows the US stock market since late 2007 falling just about as fast as in 1929-30; with the last rebound a bit more extensive (which we thought it might be particularly in financials and oils too; because some things are different this time; as some other things are possibly worse, like the insanity of trying to spend our way out of deficits by magnifying those deficits)
Aside growing Deflation in Japan or parts of Europe; the big story that nobody seems to extrapolate on a National basis, is California.
Consumers are wounded; commercial property issues are barely surfaced; we are resetting to the 'new paradigm' which everyone calls the 'new normal', and that has a multiple valuation quotient to it as well. For that reason we cannot remove risk from the plate at this time, and believe actually that irrespective of the next couple weeks, it remains an issue."

Of course, oil has risen from $30 to $70 the last few months. How's that for "deflation"?

IT

actually oil is down from $147 .

many tech stocks i follow are "up" 100-200% from their world-is-ending lows.

ed rader

Thats 47% deflation ...ed got ya there IT

Round 2 deflation has started on coms and stocks. I am pretty sure has started and I doubt we will take out the 956 high

Ask Japan folks hows their deflation going 27 years of printing and counting.

Z

[IndexTrader]

Its doubled since what....February? The media is calling it the "reflation" trade. I got no problem if you want to use $147 as the benchmark, but when do we start using something else? For instance, I can remember oil under $10 a barrel.....what's that....700% inflation? Or maybe we can talk about how much stocks are up since 1974 when the Dow was 550..ala Larry Kudlow. IT

[ed rader]

Its doubled since what....February? The media is calling it the "reflation" trade. I got no problem if you want to use $147 as the benchmark, but when do we start using something else? For instance, I can remember oil under $10 a barrel.....what's that....700% inflation?

Or maybe we can talk about how much stocks are up since 1974 when the Dow was 550..ala Larry Kudlow.

IT

when you got guys like t boone pickens praying for higher oil prices so he can save us from the evildoers and the saudis saying that $80 a barrel is fair value i don't think inflation has anything to do with the price of crude. at least "peak oil" has gone the way of the california rolling blackouts .

ed rader

Edited by ed rader, 30 June 2009 - 08:16 PM.

[zoropb]

Its doubled since what....February? The media is calling it the "reflation" trade. I got no problem if you want to use $147 as the benchmark, but when do we start using something else? For instance, I can remember oil under $10 a barrel.....what's that....700% inflation?

Or maybe we can talk about how much stocks are up since 1974 when the Dow was 550..ala Larry Kudlow.

IT

Well we can also say it is a bull market since 1932 from the 40s print low in the Dow 30.

I would think 3 years or less is pretty relevant to the inflation or deflation argument wouldn't you? We are not talking about a 1,2, or 3 generation change here. These drops have never been seen so far and so fast bud unless I am missing something.

Z