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#31 zoropb

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Posted 08 July 2009 - 05:35 PM

We have classic bottoming action here...so classic that we may make a new high....target 960 before dropping profusely...
What I would love to see is Globex action making another low in the 860/62 area...with cash making a higher low in the morning...but that might be too wet of a dream.....cash has either put in it's low......or will need another low. If we need another low in cash....I'd be watching OEX 407/408 for a very strong reversal..A gap up tomorrow shouldn't be sold. ...it will be a gap that won't ever be filled ...within the next 4 weeks...


Hi Tea
I'm thinking it's all possible,..and to add to any classic bottoming pattern I think we need to see a FUGLY Gap Down Open.. and we may get it tomorrow. ;)

Best Regards,


My take on this is that the first push down here is a false breakdown. See my post from this AM.

http://www.traders-t...mp;#entry468421

I too would like to see an ugly gap below today's low. I don't know if we can get this tomorrow or not.

The move up will be interesting...depending on how it unfolds I could see a new high as well. Might not go that far, but we'll see on all that. I like the potential from down here.

IT

yep nice calls you and T kept me with foot out the exit door both ways a few times and in the meat and potatoes. ;) Bailed a little early on last one but no complaints. Thanks UUs guys.

Z

I run a traders Blog with high probability targeting on ES , closed to any new members.


#32 Echo

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Posted 08 July 2009 - 06:13 PM

TP, Thanks for sharing your work and all your charts. I know it takes a while to annotate them. In this case, I'm going to have to disagree with you time frame for filling any upside gap. If we were around July 23-27th, I'd say quite possibly you could be right, even bet on it. But right now, we are looking into the teeth of a Hurst 20wk low which is just around the corner. Not only would a gap up get filled within a few trading days, but our eventual low in 2 wks should be at least 865 SPX cash and more likely 847-853 range, and if the bottom falls out, 800-820 range based on the cascade of the flds in their current configuration. I'd hafta say that the probability of hitting these targets increased today when we OVERSHOT the 2.5wk target of 872 and I'm not even sure the 2.5wk low is in (could be, but tomor or Friday is in play). Finally, it looks like NAMO has or is breaking the March divergent lows, which puts the broad smallercap market in big dodo. The summation should go negative manana. Not to say we can't get a good bounce here out of the 2.5wk low, even a surprising one, but I still feel it will be a DCB. Any real bounceback has higher odds in 2-2.5wks. As everyone else has said, just my opinion I'm sharing right or wrong. Who knows, cycles can be funny sometimes and while NAMO is not showing anything bullish, NYMO does sport a potential bullish divergent structure. Now may I ask, what has you so convinced of a gap and go for 3-4wks? Best, Echo

#33 eminimee

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Posted 08 July 2009 - 06:21 PM

TP, Thanks for sharing your work and all your charts. I know it takes a while to annotate them. In this case, I'm going to have to disagree with you time frame for filling any upside gap. If we were around July 23-27th, I'd say quite possibly you could be right, even bet on it. But right now, we are looking into the teeth of a Hurst 20wk low which is just around the corner. Not only would a gap up get filled within a few trading days, but our eventual low in 2 wks should be at least 865 SPX cash and more likely 847-853 range, and if the bottom falls out, 800-820 range based on the cascade of the flds in their current configuration. I'd hafta say that the probability of hitting these targets increased today when we OVERSHOT the 2.5wk target of 872 and I'm not even sure the 2.5wk low is in (could be, but tomor or Friday is in play). Finally, it looks like NAMO has or is breaking the March divergent lows, which puts the broad smallercap market in big dodo. The summation should go negative manana. Not to say we can't get a good bounce here out of the 2.5wk low, even a surprising one, but I still feel it will be a DCB. Any real bounceback has higher odds in 2-2.5wks.

As everyone else has said, just my opinion I'm sharing right or wrong. Who knows, cycles can be funny sometimes and while NAMO is not showing anything bullish, NYMO does sport a potential bullish divergent structure.

Now may I ask, what has you so convinced of a gap and go for 3-4wks?
Best,

Echo


I'm not convinced of a gap and go...in fact I've said I'd prefer another low near 860.....I did say that "if" we gapped up...and that gap would have to be large..not a point or two...then I wouldn't want to sell it.
...Listen..I might be wrong....call me crazy..call me naive...just don't call me H2... :lol:
...I will say..any daily close on oex below 408...then I am probably crazy..

#34 pdx5

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Posted 08 July 2009 - 06:37 PM

We have classic bottoming action here...so classic that we may make a new high....target 960 before dropping profusely...
What I would love to see is Globex action making another low in the 860/62 area...with cash making a higher low in the morning...but that might be too wet of a dream.....cash has either put in it's low......or will need another low. If we need another low in cash....I'd be watching OEX 407/408 for a very strong reversal..A gap up tomorrow shouldn't be sold. ...it will be a gap that won't ever be filled ...within the next 4 weeks...



I am sticking to my FF posted several times = 900 plus minus 40 points thru late fall.
Goes higher after that. Forget about 666 FF of some prominent posters here.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#35 skott

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Posted 08 July 2009 - 06:37 PM

I remain fully short. I see no reason to cover except short term OS condition. There is the possibility that we have completed Wave C down but there is more to a trade than e wave.

#36 scott in Wisconsin

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Posted 08 July 2009 - 06:51 PM

edit: today reminded me of march 6


Really? March 6?

Today reminded you of the market that had fallen from 950 to 670 on the S&P, in 60 days.

Today, a market that has fallen from 930 to 880 in 60 days.

That reminds you of March 6.

What DOESN'T remind you of March 6th?

Seems like a big old case of Confirmation Bias to me, I'm just saying.

http://www.cxoadviso...al/blog7-03-09/

Scott

#37 moorso

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Posted 08 July 2009 - 08:18 PM

Big gap and go tomorrow. WWW yesterday Tidal Low Right in this time frame, actually right now according to my stuff. Up and away.
mOOrso

#38 shanabe

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Posted 08 July 2009 - 09:16 PM

I'm thinking along Tea's lines here...sold SDS today at 61.30 (SPX ~ 872) after lunchtime rally died, bought at 58.50 last Thurs early (SPX ~ 902). Sold DUG at 22.00 this morning / bought Thurs at 20.00. Didn't like the way SPX was refusing to breakdown below 870. Went long SSO (small position) after 3pm at 23.60 (SPX about 876)...looking for SPX gap up in the a.m. My basis for reversal was too much chatter looking for breakdown of H&S pattern. When that tried to happen today - and twice could not - I got lucky enough to get a last shot at unloading short positions early afternoon. Market sentiment may be changing w.r.t. earnings expectations (less sucky may not keep cutting it) but OTOH a lot of Co's have chopped forecasts and "guidance" so I think the same sentiment play (less sucky is ok) may still have room to run. Look at ALCOA today. Futures up decent ATTM but its early. I still suspect that "they" want to keep this thing from puking and can probably prop up at least one more run up. Target of 900-910 makes sense for reasons others pointed out earlier in this thread.
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#39 goldswinger

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Posted 09 July 2009 - 12:52 AM

It is interesting that reminder about March 6th, we all know the monster rally that followed. I don't think we'll have a monster rally but a good bounce for sure...... at least 910, likely higher. There is that 20 week cycle low in two weeks that cycle peopel talk bout and that full moon that lunatics talk about signalling a trend change + those 60 MIN Indicators ready to swing up in the next few days if not Tomorrow ....................... My opinion of course.... GS.

#40 eminimee

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Posted 09 July 2009 - 08:10 AM

This gap this morning is suspect....if we were to gap and go....I would like to see more than a 10 point gap up.....might be a sell....would love to see spx or ES 860 area..