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BEAR Trap of Century

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#11 Remo



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Posted 20 July 2009 - 03:46 AM

Great post Stickan, thank you for posting... New bull market is so obvious and yet most ignore it and don't realize rules changed last March. Bull market rules apply... Even some of the best traders here...

#12 Swiss Trader

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Posted 20 July 2009 - 07:01 AM

Get ready to break the March lows

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Posted 20 July 2009 - 12:55 PM

Right or wrong, Stig posts quality. I've made (and ChartSmarts Subscribers have made) a lot of money from some of the things has shown us. This isn't some nobody posting drivel, folks. He knows what he's doing. That doesn't mean he has to be right, only that it's analysis worth considering. Mark
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#14 pdx5



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Posted 21 July 2009 - 01:19 PM

Those who ignore the BIG picture will pay a big price. Stickan's presentation gets an "A" for presentation, but a "D-" for realism. The big picture circa July 2009 is the most foreboding I have observed since becoming an adult 48 years ago. Have you ever seen any one....any country...any family... any individual...any corporation...any state/county/city government...march to prosperity by borrowing money AND SPENDING IT FOR CONSUMPTION? If yes, please site some examples. This years budget deficit is 1.8/13.85 = 13% of GDP. That is unsustainable by any historical yardstick. Next year looks no better. It is similar to you borrowing 13% more than you make and spend most of it on non-investment items or consumption. You will be in bankruptcy court very soon. There is certainly a strong BULL market coming, but it won't be in US Stocks or European stocks. It will be in the BRIC's. (Brazil, Russia, India, China). In those countries capitalism is flourishing. In US it is just the opposite. Cap and Trade will act like cancer on US corporations since China and India will never go for it. US markets will get no better than minor bull markets in the next decade. Look for Japan style stock market or worse. Just study Medicare and you will see what is coming with socialized health care. Another burden for productive people to carry. Higher taxes are coming which will diminish capital formation for sure. Have you ever seen capitalism do well with less capital?
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#15 lennie



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Posted 21 July 2009 - 03:56 PM

George says dat the funnymentalists are starting to capitulate some. They are citing dat leading indicators are getting better an dat year ovr year numbers will look great toward the end of the year. Everyone knows da market is goin way down eventually, so it's goin way up to shake out da shorts. George says da market jus mit start trending up again. Bein short is the wrong position cause da trend is up unti who know when.
S&P 500 -> Goin up. Everything else -> Don't know.

Will update the next swing.

#16 nicolasillo



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Posted 22 July 2009 - 07:43 AM

great work stickan. thanks for sharing. I would say though that we already had the bull trap of the centrury back in mid Aug to mid Oct 2007. That trap compared to the one now is nothing, peanuts. especially when you compare it with 2006 when we were already in a 3yr bull market. Now how many traps of the century can we have in a time span of 2years? I will stick with the one we had back then :P

Edited by nicolasillo, 22 July 2009 - 07:48 AM.

#17 phloat



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Posted 22 July 2009 - 01:10 PM

I have a copy of both previous major contributions - or anyway the one i was here to see.. a. bear trap of the century b. end of 2003-2007 bear market c. this one and now this one don't care wrong or right he nailed a & b I will take this seriously thank you

#18 eminimee


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Posted 24 July 2009 - 02:19 PM


#19 Frac_Man


    Hank Wernicki M.A.

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Posted 26 July 2009 - 11:11 AM

Almost there ................

Get ready to break the March lows

#20 Tor



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Posted 26 July 2009 - 02:14 PM

Almost there ................

Get ready to break the March lows

Why dont you speak like a normal person instead of jibberish?

You do this all the time hank and people have noticed.

The future is 90% present and 10% vision.