33 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Hi ,
third 1/4 short here at 1810 ndx, previously 1787 and 1800.
Still on pattern, now needs to fail....

Hello Espresso, looks like we are the only ones. I added today 60% short position... well I am now down by $15k USD. I might lose another 15K by tom... I'll stop if get to 50K loses.

Yes the only ones!
I've been reading some underground rumours this weekend of how the elite is bond to push the market up for next 2 years with $ slowly but surely collapsing!
I don't believe them yet, this is last chance for my spesi.
About trading, I try to do my best to don't bet more then 2% of my capital on a single bet, 5% for an IT bet. Unfortunately sometimes I don't respect it, I'm losing 5% so far on this.

Espresso, it's good habit to limit your losses, So far I haven been able to limit my losses. I've gotta be right on the trade! I am down by about 10% but I accept it.

If the stops are too close I always end up lossing. But most of my trades have tight stops. If I think I am right I just let it run. But the gains are mostly 50% percent of the contract value every month. this one would have to be my biggest lost for this year so i am preparing for 30-50% lost on this one if it goes wrong.

You guys have a lot of tolerance. I am always 100% in, sometimes 200%. I never let more than 8-10 SPX points loss on any trade. In terms of percentage, never more than 1.5% on any trade. That way i don't mind even two losses in a row. Cuz i know the third one will deliver 40-50 points. It's when the third successive trade loses, i start feeling the pain. I made 40+ points on the last swing down. Now i have a 8 point loss. I can endure another one.

[Cirrus]

Looking at tick and everything I think there will be plenty of bears attempting to short this new high in the SP. They are all watching the same things we are...breadth, NHs/NLs, small cap negative divergence, etc. Ya know...they may get it right by the EOD but I think that's the low odds play for today in isolation. I think there are already some shorts out there given the probe we made last week in the SPX followed by the bump down. Judging by the intraday tick (which is fading verse price) which is fading here my guess is there's some shorting going on. One more thing is silver...breaking out today. Silver has really lagged so let's see if it can make a new decade high and lend support to the move in gold. One nugget for the bears is 1121ish SP cash in a 50% retrace of the bear move. The next key macro level I have is 1214 and 1228. I would guess the 1121 area would be tough to break through without some sort of consolidation.

[tommyt]

staying with my backspread, hoping for a huge move up or down. Expo week, new highs = blowoff country.

Edited by tommyt, 16 November 2009 - 11:35 AM.

[espresso]

Nav you're the wise man, that's why we love you!

[porsche911sg]

Hi ,
third 1/4 short here at 1810 ndx, previously 1787 and 1800.
Still on pattern, now needs to fail....

Hello Espresso, looks like we are the only ones. I added today 60% short position... well I am now down by $15k USD. I might lose another 15K by tom... I'll stop if get to 50K loses.

Yes the only ones!
I've been reading some underground rumours this weekend of how the elite is bond to push the market up for next 2 years with $ slowly but surely collapsing!
I don't believe them yet, this is last chance for my spesi.
About trading, I try to do my best to don't bet more then 2% of my capital on a single bet, 5% for an IT bet. Unfortunately sometimes I don't respect it, I'm losing 5% so far on this.

Espresso, it's good habit to limit your losses, So far I haven been able to limit my losses. I've gotta be right on the trade! I am down by about 10% but I accept it.

If the stops are too close I always end up lossing. But most of my trades have tight stops. If I think I am right I just let it run. But the gains are mostly 50% percent of the contract value every month. this one would have to be my biggest lost for this year so i am preparing for 30-50% lost on this one if it goes wrong.

You guys have a lot of tolerance. I am always 100% in, sometimes 200%. I never let more than 8-10 SPX points loss on any trade. In terms of percentage, never more than 1.5% on any trade. That way i don't mind even two losses in a row. Cuz i know the third one will deliver 40-50 points. It's when the third successive trade loses, i start feeling the pain. I made 40+ points on the last swing down. Now i have a 8 point loss. I can endure another one.

Yes I got high very high tolerance for loses...

It's the only out.. I went to long nikkei at 9700 in oct think it was a good buy.... guess what happened next i went out for dinner contract position down by 30% in two hours low was 9540s!!! I was down by 40 k USD in two hours not a joke, I decided to hang on till cause I believed it was the right direction. It sold it at 10400 in the end.

Just this month I long nikkei again down by another 150 points ouch!!! I held on for the rebound sold 50 point above what I paid.

Oct 2007 down on S and P by 35 points... the plunge came made 80 or 90 points.

Sept 2001 worst short ever, contract position down by 70% by end of trading session feeling really really sore, added position, margin call within hours!!! sept 11 came resuced my shorts...

[NAV]

Hi ,
third 1/4 short here at 1810 ndx, previously 1787 and 1800.
Still on pattern, now needs to fail....

Hello Espresso, looks like we are the only ones. I added today 60% short position... well I am now down by $15k USD. I might lose another 15K by tom... I'll stop if get to 50K loses.

Yes the only ones!
I've been reading some underground rumours this weekend of how the elite is bond to push the market up for next 2 years with $ slowly but surely collapsing!
I don't believe them yet, this is last chance for my spesi.
About trading, I try to do my best to don't bet more then 2% of my capital on a single bet, 5% for an IT bet. Unfortunately sometimes I don't respect it, I'm losing 5% so far on this.

Espresso, it's good habit to limit your losses, So far I haven been able to limit my losses. I've gotta be right on the trade! I am down by about 10% but I accept it.

If the stops are too close I always end up lossing. But most of my trades have tight stops. If I think I am right I just let it run. But the gains are mostly 50% percent of the contract value every month. this one would have to be my biggest lost for this year so i am preparing for 30-50% lost on this one if it goes wrong.

You guys have a lot of tolerance. I am always 100% in, sometimes 200%. I never let more than 8-10 SPX points loss on any trade. In terms of percentage, never more than 1.5% on any trade. That way i don't mind even two losses in a row. Cuz i know the third one will deliver 40-50 points. It's when the third successive trade loses, i start feeling the pain. I made 40+ points on the last swing down. Now i have a 8 point loss. I can endure another one.

Yes I got high very high tolerance for loses...

It's the only out.. I went to long nikkei at 9700 in oct think it was a good buy.... guess what happened next i went out for dinner contract position down by 30% in two hours low was 9540s!!! I was down by 40 k USD in two hours not a joke, I decided to hang on till cause I believed it was the right direction. It sold it at 10400 in the end.

Just this month I long nikkei again down by another 150 points ouch!!! I held on for the rebound sold 50 point above what I paid.

Oct 2007 down on S and P by 35 points... the plunge came made 80 or 90 points.

Sept 2001 worst short ever, contract position down by 70% by end of trading session feeling really really sore, added position, margin call within hours!!! sept 11 came resuced my shorts...

Porshce,

Hope the trade works out for you buddy.

[andiron]

i am adding to my shorts to make total 10% of my capital as short...@ES1109. yes today is perhaps trending mkt.. but you need to have some short position in case a crash happens..Besides, my liquidity indicator gold is reached the inter target since breakout..

Edited by andiron, 16 November 2009 - 11:51 AM.

[porsche911sg]

Porshce,

Hope the trade works out for you buddy.

Thanks, Nav. I hope so well it looks like just hope!

[IYB]

Nope. SPX 1102 was my stop which i posted on friday and got taken out today. With 85% adv 15% decl, i am standing aside. If the rally holds till EOD then it's back to buy the dips mode again. We need a failure here to get short again. Fading strength is not my style.

Same here - stop 1106 as posted.

Edited by IYB, 16 November 2009 - 12:06 PM.

[tommyt]

but you need to have some short position in case a crash happens.. again, crashes don't happen from highs, pullbacks to trendlines do. Check historical charts, crashes happen from low points on charts.